ONDO trend continuation analysis before unlocking

TL;DR

The SEC officially concluded its two-year investigation into Ondo Finance at the end of November 2025 without filing any charges, removing a major regulatory hurdle for the project. However, a massive unlocking of 1.94 billion ONDO tokens (19.4% of the total supply, worth approximately $932 million) is scheduled for January 18, 2026. Technically, the short-term 1-hour/4-hour chart shows an upward trend, but the daily chart remains in a downward channel, with a probability of approximately 55% continuation. On-chain data shows stable whale holdings, robust TVL, and positive social sentiment. Overall, the short-term trend may continue to the $0.50 resistance level, but due to unlocking pressure and weakness on the daily chart, the probability of breaking through $0.52 is low.

Details of the SEC investigation concluded

Official case closed

• In late November 2025, the SEC formally notified Ondo Finance that it was ending its multi-year investigation, which began in October 2023, and would not recommend or bring any further charges .
• The investigation focuses on the compliance of Ondo's tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) such as U.S. Treasury bonds, and whether ONDO tokens constitute securities. (coindesk)
• Ondo Finance announced the closure of the case on its official Twitter account at 13:03 UTC on December 8, 2025, emphasizing its full cooperation and unwavering commitment to compliance. (x.com)

Regulatory roadmap submission

• Ondo submitted a "Roadmap for Tokenized Securities" proposal to the SEC on December 4, 2025, calling for support for direct/intermediary holding models, permissionless blockchains, and DTC-linked tokenization. (sec.gov)
• The proposal advocates for innovation exemptions and retail investor access to tokenized securities, with a roadmap for the next phase planned to be announced at the Ondo Summit in New York on February 3, 2026. (x.com )

Industry Background

• The closure of these cases aligns with a policy shift under SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, with most crypto investigations being withdrawn, marking a move from enforcement-centric to innovation-supportive practices .

Unlocking timeline and potential pressure

Core Unlock Event

Token distribution structure

Stress assessment

• The amount to be unlocked in January 2026 is equivalent to 61% of the current circulating supply (3.16 billion), which is a significant dilution event. The private sale recipients (early investors) may have an incentive to take profits.
• Historical reference : After the initial cliff unlock in January 2025 (approximately 1.15 billion tokens), the price of ONDO fell from a high of $2.14 (December 2024) to the $0.45-0.50 range (December 2025), showing that the unlock had a substantial negative impact on the price.
• Current circulation rate : only 31.59% (as of December 8, 2025). Low circulation means that unlocking will have a more significant impact on the supply and demand balance.

Technical trend analysis

Overview of multi-timeframe metrics

Key support and resistance levels

• Support zones : $0.47 (4-hour SMA50 aligns with the lower Bollinger Band on the 1/4-hour chart), $0.45 (daily lower Bollinger Band and area of ​​concentrated liquidation, with a cumulative long position liquidation risk of $4.6 million).
• Resistance zones : $0.49 (1-hour upper Bollinger Band), $0.50 (psychological level, near the starting point of short liquidation at $482 million), $0.52 (cumulative short liquidation exceeds $5 million).

Trading volume and capital flow

• OBV (On-Balance Volume) : 1-hour -7.98 million, 4-hour -32.67 million, daily -299.7 million. All timeframes show a downward trend, indicating that despite short-term price increases, participation has weakened.
• 24-hour liquidation : Total $434,700, with long positions accounting for 72% ($313,600), reflecting recent downward pressure but stabilizing.

Derivatives Market Signals

• Total open interest : $149.4 million, up 26.22% in 24 hours, indicating increased participation and stronger potential trend forces.
• Funding rates : Major exchanges are negative (Bybit -0.0133%, Binance -0.0079%), with short sellers paying long positions, supporting a bullish bias and suppressing short.

Probability of continued upward trend

• Positive factors : Short-term (1/4 hour) MACD golden cross, price above EMA, increased open interest, negative funding rate, SEC favorable policy.
• Negative factors : Downtrend on daily chart, declining OBV across the board, major asset unlocking approaching in January 2026, and a 63% week-on-week decrease in trading volume.
• Overall assessment : There is a 55% probability that the price will continue to rise to $0.50 in the short term, but a breakout above the $0.49 resistance level requires increased trading volume; the daily chart shows weakness and the release of resistance limits the upside potential above $0.52.

Trading Strategy Reference

• Bullish entry : Buy when the price retraces to the $0.47 support level and the 4-hour RSI is above 50, with a target of $0.52 and a stop-loss at $0.45 (risk-reward ratio 2.50).
• Bearish exit strategy : Sell if the price falls below $0.45 (lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart), with a target of $0.44 and a stop-loss at $0.46 (risk-reward ratio 1.00).

On-chain data analysis

Position distribution and whale dynamics

• Concentration : The top 5 addresses hold approximately 69% of the circulating supply, with a total of 173,410 addresses holding the token, indicating a high degree of concentration but a relatively dispersed base.
• Whale net movement : Except for a slight reduction in holdings by #2 and a small increase in holdings by #3 (net cumulative +1.8 million ONDO), other major holders are stable and no large-scale transfers have been observed.
• Unlock Relevance : No unlocking events occurred from December 1st to 8th; the Whale event was unrelated to unlocking; no large-amount transfers of over 1 million ONDO occurred.

Agreement fundamentals

• TVL (Total Value Locked) : Remained stable at $1.85 billion (from $1.82 billion on December 1 to $1.85 billion on December 7), with a net increase of +1.5%, indicating the continued attractiveness of negotiated assets.
• Commission income : $857,000 accumulated over 7 days (approximately $49 million annualized), with an average daily income of $0-$214,000, resulting in a profit of $0 (commissions were not included in the agreement income).
• Token holders : There are approximately 1,140 addresses holding RWA tokens (OUSG/USDY), which are stable across chains.

Trading activity

• 7-day trading volume : $456 million, daily average $65 million (range $34.6 million - $92.8 million), circulating supply turnover rate 14.4%.
• Active addresses : 1,500 protocol transactions per day, 567-1,528 daily active addresses (peak on December 1), and approximately 4,500 weekly active addresses.
• Price performance : It fell 10.2% from December 1st to 8th (from $0.506 to $0.455), but rebounded by +6% in a single day after the SEC news on December 8th.

Social Emotion Assessment

SEC's closing reaction

• Official dissemination : Ondo's official Twitter and blog simultaneously announced the case's closure on December 8th, emphasizing regulatory milestones and the expansion path of tokenized securities in the United States, which was widely shared by the community. x.com
• Media Coverage : CoinBureau calls the case's conclusion a "green light" for Ondo's US growth; Eleanor Terrett reports on the implications of the two-year investigation's conclusion for the expansion of tokenized assets; Cointelegraph associates the roadmap submission as a key update. coinbureau x.com

Community-led narrative

KOL Quality Assessment

• High-quality analysis : CoinBureau and Eleanor Terrett provide factual reporting and connect it to the evolution of regulatory frameworks, making them highly credible.
• Dissemination-oriented KOLs : Crypto Rover and Degenerate News spread information rapidly but lack original analysis, leaning towards hype.
• Controversial discussion : There was no substantial controversy, and the community consensus focused on regulatory benefits and the prospects of tokenization.

Comprehensive Emotional Assessment

• Overall polarity : Strongly positive (approximately 85% positive/10% neutral/5% negative), focusing on regulatory certainty surrounding the SEC case's resolution and industry leadership.
• Price expectations before unlocking : There is almost no direct discussion on social media about the price impact of unlocking, and market attention is focused on the positive aspects of regulation, which may underestimate the risk of supply dilution.

in conclusion

Short-term trend continuation judgment

ONDO showed short-term (1-4 hour) upward momentum stimulated by the news of the SEC's case resolution. Technical indicators such as the MACD golden cross, price above the short-term EMA, and negative funding rates all support a bullish outlook, with a 55% probability of reaching the $0.50 resistance level. However, the daily chart still shows a downtrend (price below all major moving averages), and the continued decline in OBV reveals insufficient participation. The 63% week-on-week drop in trading volume further weakens the sustainability of the upward trend.

Key risk factors

The unlocking of 1.94 billion ONDO on January 18, 2026 (representing 19.4% of the total supply, worth $932 million) constitutes the largest potential selling pressure. Historical experience shows that after the first large-scale unlock in January 2025, the price halved from a high of $2.14 to the current $0.48 range. Although on-chain data shows stable whale holdings and a healthy TVL ($1.85 billion), the 61% surge in circulating supply resulting from the unlock (relative to the current circulating supply of 3.16 billion) is unlikely to be absorbed by the market in the short term.

Comprehensive assessment

• Optimistic scenario (30% probability): If trading volume exceeds $100 million/day and holds above $0.50, it may test the $0.52 short-selling concentration zone, but this requires further catalysts from the SEC roadmap or institutional buying support.
• Baseline Scenario (55% probability): Short-term fluctuations within the $0.47-$0.50 range, hampered by daily weakness and the approaching expiration date, making a trend breakout unlikely.
• Pessimistic scenario (15% probability): A break below the $0.45 daily moving average support would trigger a chain reaction of liquidation of $4.6 million long positions, testing the $0.44-$0.42 area.

Strategy Recommendations

A cautious approach is warranted regarding the continuation of the upward trend before the unlocking. The SEC's positive news was already priced in on the 6% rebound on December 8th, and further upside potential is limited by expectations of supply dilution and technical weakness on the daily chart. It is recommended to monitor the effectiveness of the $0.47 support level and whether trading volume can sustain $80 million+ per day, while also being wary of potential pre-unlocking selling pressure in the 30 days leading up to the January 2026 unlocking. Long-term investors may consider entering the market after the supply and demand rebalance following the unlocking (Q2 2026).