LINEA Token Unlocking Analysis Report

TL;DR

LINEA plans to unlock 138 million tokens (worth approximately $11 million ) at 11:00 UTC on December 10, 2025, instead of the rumored 1.44 billion. The actual observed market inflow was $1.8 million into Binance (December 5th), from project-linked wallets, bringing the total inflow for December to $4.5 million. Social sentiment was generally neutral, with the market reacting mutedly to the unlock event.

Unlocking core event information

Unlock Scale Clarification

Key findings : The actual unlocked amount was significantly smaller than the rumored figure, with the number of tokens being only 9.6% of the rumored amount and the value approximately 69% of the rumored amount.

Unlock allocation details

• Recipient : Linea Consortium (Ecosystem Long-Term Alignment Distribution)
• Attribution structure : 75% of the ecosystem fund, with a 10-year linear release.
• Release mechanism : Weighted initial release (10% annually in the early stages, decreasing to 2% in later stages)
• Purpose Declaration : For ecosystem initiatives such as R&D, infrastructure, and public goods; not allocated to VCs or teams (such allocations are zero).

Actual market inflow analysis

Exchange Inflow Tracking (December 1-8)

Inflow characteristics :

• Single major inflow : Only $1.8 million was observed flowing into Binance (December 5th), far below the $15.82 million mentioned by users.
• Source chain : Tokens are issued from the LINEA project's main wallet, routed through an intermediary wallet to the Binance via Flow Trades address.
• Repeated pattern : The third transfer in December indicates a pattern of the project team continuously supplying tokens to exchanges.
• Potential pressure : The transfer time (5 days before unlocking) suggests potential liquidity preparation before unlocking.

Limitations of on-chain data

• Supply Changes : Due to limitations in Linea Chain RPC support, accurate supply change data for December 1-8 is unavailable.
• Large transfers : Unable to track transfers exceeding 1 million LINEA from the project wallet (tool limitation).
• Cryptocurrency holding distribution : The top 10 holders account for 87.48%, and the top addresses hold 62.73%, indicating extremely high concentration.

Social Emotions and Market Narratives

Twitter/X Discussion Overview

• Discussion activity : Sparse, mainly consisting of neutral information dissemination, lacking in-depth debate.
• Official stance : @LineaBuild focused on the December 9th airdrop claim deadline and did not directly mention the December 10th unlock date.
• KOL's perspective :
  • CryptoRank_io : Lists the unlock as a regular supply event, without indicating a stance.
  • SaintAceAI : Hints at potential selling pressure; suggests looking for buying opportunities amid anticipated volatility.

Narrative Framework

• Supply pressure narrative : Some voices group LINEA with other coin unlocks this week (APT, CHEEL, BB), suggesting a sell-off risk from the "unlocking wave".
• Historically , post-unlocking volatility has been low, with the impact depending on the behavior of the recipient and overall market conditions.
• Price Impact : On December 6th, the airdrop claim deadline caused an 8% price drop to $0.00813. 92% of the $230 million airdrop had already been claimed, potentially exacerbating selling pressure before the funds were unlocked.

risk assessment

in conclusion

Core judgment :

1. Data Correction : The actual unlocking scale (1.38B/$11M) is far smaller than the rumored (14.4B/$15.82M), and market panic may have been amplified.
2. Actual inflows : The observed actual inflows ($1.8M) were only 11.4% of the rumored inflows ($15.82M), indicating that supply pressures were significantly overestimated.
3. Risk is manageable : The unlocked amount represents 6.76% of the circulating supply and 8.9% of the market capitalization, a relatively moderate scale; the reduced allocation for ecosystem purposes lowers the probability of immediate selling.
4. Key concerns : The project's model of continuously supplying tokens to Binance ($4.5M/month) and its highly concentrated token holding structure are more concerning systemic risks.

Recommendation : The market reaction to the December 10th unlock is likely to be relatively muted, unless there are unusually large transfers or a general market downturn. Investors should focus on on-chain inflow data and price action, rather than exaggerated unlock expectations.