BTC exchange balance hits new cyclical low: Supply tightening driven by institutional hoarding

Key findings

As of December 10, 2025, the total balance of BTC on exchanges dropped to 2,758,874 BTC , a new low in this cycle, a further decrease of about 6% from the low point after the FTX collapse (2.93M BTC). There was a net outflow of 54,405 BTC over the past 30 days. However, unlike the panic withdrawals caused by FTX in 2022, the current withdrawal wave is driven by institutional hoarding and self-custody trends. Market sentiment is generally bullish, and analysts see this as a positive signal of a supply shock.

On-chain data analysis

Evolution of Exchange Balance

As of December 10, 2025, Binance held 636,593 BTC , with a net outflow of 11,785 BTC over the past 7 days. (Coindesk )

Recent Capital Flow Characteristics

7-day net cash flow (December 4-10, 2025) :

• Total net outflow: -18,547 BTC
• Average daily outflow: -2,221 BTC
• Largest single-day outflow: -5,189 BTC (December 4)
• Outflow/Inflow Ratio: 1.08 (204,409 BTC outflow vs 188,863 BTC inflow)

30-day net cash flow (November 11, 2025 - December 10, 2025) :

• Total net outflow: -54,405 BTC (post-reconciliation data)
• Largest single-day outflow: -29,529 BTC (November 18)
• Outflow days percentage: 70% (21 days of outflow vs. 9 days of inflow)
• Reserves decreased by 1.98% (from 2,814,584 to 2,758,874 BTC).

On-chain analyst Murphy points out: "Exchange BTC balances have dropped to just 2.936 million, a new low for this cycle. More BTC is being moved out of exchanges as reserves, rather than being sent to exchanges for sale." (blockbeats )

whale movements and institutional signals

Large withdrawal events (single transaction > 40,000 BTC):

Glassnode data shows that over $10 million worth of bulk BTC transactions are rapidly leaving exchanges (especially Coinbase), indicating "aggressive buying at the institutional level." (coindesk)

Approximately 170,000 BTC have been removed from exchanges in the past 30 days, marking a five-year low. (x.com)

Compared to FTX after its collapse

Similarity and difference

Key differences :

• Key features of 2022 : The FTX crash triggered a crisis of confidence in the industry, retail investors panicked and withdrew their funds to cold wallets, and the balance dropped from 3.33M to 2.93M (-12%).
• Characteristics of 2025 : Institutional-driven structural outflows, supply absorption by spot ETFs and companies like MicroStrategy, and a bullish on-chain data environment rather than panic selling.

CryptoQuant analysis indicates that the current record low exchange reserves signify a "supply shock," as long-term holders and institutions withdraw their funds during the price correction.

Driving Factor Analysis

1. Institutional hoarding dominates.

• Impact of spot ETFs : Since the approval of ETFs in January 2024, approximately 200,000 BTC have flowed into cold storage through institutional channels, bypassing exchanges.
• Enterprise-level purchasing : Companies like MicroStrategy continue to increase their holdings, directly absorbing supply from the over-the-counter market.
• Whale behavior : Addresses holding more than $1 million are continuously withdrawing funds from exchanges, while retail investors holding less than $100,000 are depositing funds into exchanges, creating a divergence.

Whales holding over $1 million and $10 million are primarily withdrawing their holdings from exchanges; spot Bitcoin ETFs and companies like MicroStrategy are absorbing the supply into cold storage. (coinglass)

2. The trend of self-management is accelerating.

• Lessons from the FTX incident: Retail investor inflows to exchanges like Binance decreased by 60% after the launch of ETFs.
• Inflows from small holders (<1 BTC) into Binance have fallen to 411 BTC , an 84% drop from the post-FTX peak (2,675 BTC).

3. Macroeconomic Support

• Fed Rate Cut : Loose Monetary Policy Drives Risk Asset Allocation
• US Dollar Depreciation : The US dollar is projected to depreciate by 10.4% in 2025, increasing demand for BTC as an inflation hedge.
• Post-halving supply tightening : BTC annual inflation rate drops to <1%, coupled with outflows from exchanges creating dual supply pressure.

Community sentiment analysis

Overall emotional tendency

Overall market sentiment is bullish (as of December 11, 2025, UTC), with the community interpreting exchange outflows as a hoarding signal rather than a sign of panic.

Mainstream Narrative

1. The argument for reduced selling pressure is that withdrawals tighten the supply of tokens available for sale on exchanges, encouraging long-term holding rather than selling.
2. Supply contraction narrative : The combination of declining exchange balances with ETF inflows and corporate purchases creates a "supply crisis" narrative.
3. HODL culture-driven : The community repeatedly calls for avoiding selling during volatility, emphasizing confidence in the long-term value of BTC.

Analyst @TheMoneyApe stated that he is strongly bullish on BTC given the influx of market liquidity, attributing outflows to whale accumulation and believing there is no direct selling pressure. (x.com)

Points of contention

• Volatility Concerns : Some investors worry that exchange activity could trigger sharp price fluctuations, and signals of BTC dominance have sparked a debate between BTC and Altcoin.
• Repeated loss pattern : Some voices point out that recent losses are the largest since FTX's inception, but most people believe that the contrast between the pain of short-term holders and the calm of long-term holders is striking.
• Corporate strategy questions arose : speculation emerged about a possible sell-off by Saylor and others, but this was overshadowed by MicroStrategy's announcement of continued share purchases.

in conclusion

The record low BTC exchange balance in December 2025 is essentially an institutional-driven supply restructuring , rather than a panic-driven exodus like that of FTX. The net outflow of 54,405 BTC over the past 30 days, the continuous large-scale withdrawals by whale(a single-day high of 87,767 BTC), and the balance falling to an all-time low of 2.76 million BTC all point to a structural shift: the trends of spot ETFs, corporate hoarding, and self-custody are permanently reducing the supply available for sale on exchanges.

Unlike the panic withdrawals following FTX in 2022, the current outflows are occurring against the backdrop of a bull market, which on-chain data and analyst consensus view as a bullish signal of a supply shock . The triple support of institutional and whale hoarding behavior, a significant decrease in retail investor inflows to exchanges (an 84% drop), and the macroeconomic environment (Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, dollar depreciation, and supply tightening after the halving) makes the record low exchange balances a sustainable trend rather than a short-term anomaly.

If reserves continue to decline in the future, seller liquidity will tighten further, providing a basis for price increases.