Analysis of WIF's Short-Term Leading Rally in Meme Coin: A Signal of Market Preference Shift?
TL;DR
$WIF has recorded a +10.10% increase over the past 7 days, leading the mainstream meme coin sector, with a 24-hour increase of +12.48% and trading volume surging 56.9% to $202 million. Technically, it shows short-term overbought conditions but strong momentum, with futures open interest increasing by 23% in a single day to $206 million. On-chain data shows that meme coins account for 20-30% of trading volume on Solana DEX, coupled with the "king of meme momentum" narrative on social media, confirming signs of short-term fund rotation. However, considering market capitalization distribution, sustainability indicators, and the overall performance of the sector, the current movement appears more like an internal rotation within meme coins rather than a systemic shift in market preferences.
Price performance analysis
7-day price increase comparison (as of December 9, 2025, UTC)
| Meme Coin | 7-day increase | 24-hour increase | Market capitalization ranking | 24-hour trading volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIF | +10.10% | +12.48% | #169 | $202M (+56.9%) |
| PEPE | +9.19% | +4.64% | #59 | $502M |
| FLOKI | +6.58% | +4.52% | #155 | $93M |
| SHIB | +3.09% | +2.01% | #34 | $151M |
| DOGE | +1.07% | +3.91% | #10 | $1.68B |
| BONK | +0.20% | +4.73% | #108 | $123M |
Key findings :
- Relative Strength Advantage : WIF's 7-day gain surpassed the global crypto market (+2.0%) and the Solana ecosystem (0.0%), ranking first among mainstream meme coins. (coinmarketcap )
- Momentum Breakout : A 24-hour gain of +12.48% significantly outperforms its peers, reaching a high of $0.438 during the session, representing a rebound of over 18% from the weekly low. coingecko
- Trading activity : 24-hour trading volume of $202M, a single-day increase of 56.9%, indicating a rapid influx of funds, which is in stark contrast to PEPE's $502M (PEPE's market capitalization is 4.8 times that of WIF, but its trading volume is only 2.5 times).
Recovery elasticity comparison
The revised rebound data shows that WIF recorded +18.8%, while PEPE only +6.42%, indicating that WIF has significantly stronger capital support and price elasticity after a short-term pullback. (cryptorank)
Technical Analysis
Momentum Indicator
RSI (Relative Strength Index) :
| cycle | WIF RSI | DOGE RSI | SHIB RSI | PEPE RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | 70.61 | - | - | - | 🔴Overbuying |
| 4 hours | 72.50 | - | - | - | 🔴Overbuying |
| Daily chart | 56.87 | 46.77 | 50.17 | 51.35 | 🟢 Neutral to slightly bullish |
WIF is leading its peers across all timeframes, with the daily RSI at 56.87 indicating healthy upward momentum, while DOGE (46.77), SHIB (50.17), and PEPE (51.35) remain in neutral to weak territory. Short-term overbought signals on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts suggest potential technical pullback pressure in the near term.
MACD indicator :
- 1-hour chart : MACD line (0.014) > signal line (0.011), histogram +0.003, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
- 4-hour chart : MACD line (0.010) > signal line (0.004), histogram expands to +0.006, upward trend accelerates.
- Daily chart : MACD line (-0.011) > signal line (-0.021), histogram +0.010, potential golden cross forming.
Compared to similar cryptocurrencies, WIF shows a more obvious bullish reversal signal in its daily MACD histogram (DOGE +0.001, SHIB/PEPE close to zero).
Moving average structure
Current price $0.438 relative position :
- 1-hour chart : Above EMA12 ($0.425), EMA26 ($0.411), and SMA50 ($0.394), indicating a fully bullish alignment.
- 4-hour chart : Above EMA12 ($0.402), EMA26 ($0.392), and SMA50 ($0.385), maintaining a bullish structure.
- Daily chart : Slightly above EMA12 ($0.389) but below EMA26 ($0.400), close to SMA50 ($0.437), indicating a neutral to bullish trend.
Most major meme coins are trading below their daily moving averages (DOGE is below $0.165 SMA50, SHIB is below $9.16e-6, and PEPE is below $5.47e-6), while WIF has a clear relative advantage.
Derivatives Market
Total futures open interest reached $205.7 million USD, a surge of +22.98% in 24 hours, indicating rapid accumulation of leveraged long positions.
On-chain data analysis
Solana ecosystem DEX activity
7-day trading volume (December 2-9, 2025) :
- Raydium : Total $4.13B, daily average approximately $590M, peak $1.25B on December 4th.
- Jupiter : Total $714K, daily average $102K, activity level significantly lower than Raydium.
Based on 24-hour proxy data (December 9th), the estimated percentage of Meme coin's contribution to Solana DEX trading volume is as follows:
- WIF: $203M
- BONK: $123M
- MEW: $26M
- BOME: $24M
- POPCAT: $20M
- This totals approximately $396M, representing 20-30% of Raydium's daily average.
Position distribution and whale movements
WIF position concentration (as of December 9) :
- Total supply: 999M pieces
- The top 25 holders control approximately 50% of the tokens , with the top holder holding 11.61% (116M tokens, worth approximately $51M).
- The top 10 addresses hold over 30% of the shares, exhibiting a highly centralized characteristic.
While historical snapshots for comparison during the period are lacking, the current liquidity and trading volume indicate that whales continue to participate in market making and swing trading. No unusually large transfers exceeding $1 million were detected during the period, and the position structure remained relatively stable.
Solana Overall DeFi Comparison
TVL trend (December 2-9, 2025) :
The Solana chain's TVL fluctuated between $8.4 and $9.1, with a weekly average of $8.8 and a weekly increase of +10%. It stabilized after a slight pullback to $8.5 on December 7.
Social sentiment analysis
Key Narrative
Price Momentum Narrative :
- December 2nd Twitter alert: WIF +8% in a single day
- Binance data for December 4th: +10.86% with trading volume +64%
- December 9th positioning: "The undisputed king of meme momentum," "The cleanest trend asset," "The No. 1 gainer among top memes, and the No. 2 gainer among the Top 200" x.com
Cyclical expectations :
Market discussion is focused on the potential pump in late December/early January after the tax loss harvesting period ends, coupled with the narrative of "Meme coin outperforming other sectors" during sector rotation. (x.com)
KOL opinion quality assessment
| Analyst | Key points | Quality of arguments |
|---|---|---|
| @TheEliteCrypto | The WIF chart pattern suggests an explosive upward move; historical patterns may repeat themselves. | 🟡 Medium (based on technical patterns, lacking fundamental support) |
| @BrotherMKT | Mature markets should focus on established memes to obtain asymmetric benefits. | 🟢 High (the reasonable logic of fluidity and narrative inertia) |
| @DefiRabbitHole | Cultural relevance is key to the intergenerational growth of memes. | 🟢 Higher (emphasizing community-driven long-term value) |
| @cryptcaapo | Warning against manipulative practices in meme promotion; urging caution. | 🟢 High (criticism regarding risk awareness and transparency) |
Emotional polarization :
- Bullish Dominance : Sector-wide greed signals are emerging in key indicators, suggesting near-term expansion.
- Short-term caution : WIF faces pressure to reduce risk, with both technical cooling and long-term upward forecasts coexisting.
- Risk Warning : The risk of excessive speculation is significant; position management is crucial in rotational trading.
in conclusion
Short-term leader confirmed : $WIF has established its short-term leadership among mainstream meme coins with a 7-day increase of +10.10%, a 24-hour increase of +12.48%, and a surge in trading volume of 56.9%. The technical picture shows a strong bullish structure, and the 23% single-day increase in derivatives open interest confirms the momentum of capital chasing.
Interpreting Market Preference Signals :
- Sector rotation rather than a global shift : Meme coins as a whole outperformed the broader market (+6-10% vs. global +2%), but in terms of market capitalization distribution, leading coins such as DOGE ($22.5B) and SHIB ($5.16B) lagged behind, with funds flowing more into smaller-cap Meme coins (WIF $437M), showing a rotation characteristic within the sector from blue-chip stocks to more volatile targets.
- Solana ecosystem catalysts : Meme tokens account for 20-30% of Solana DEX trading volume, significantly higher than the proportion of similar tokens on the EVM chain. Solana TVL's 10% weekly increase provides ecosystem support, but this reflects Solana's meme culture more than a shift in cross-chain preferences.
- The sustainability of the trend is questionable : Overbought RSI (1h 70.61, 4h 72.50), negative OBV (-325M), and high open interest concentration (Top 25 holdings controlled at 50%) pose a risk of a pullback. A break above $0.44 and a hold above the 4-hour SMA50 ($0.385) are needed to confirm the trend's continuation.
Tactical advice : The current stage is more accurately described as "rotation of leading stocks within the meme coin sector" rather than "a systemic market shift in preference to the meme sector." If the daily MACD golden cross is confirmed and breaks through the EMA26 ($0.40) to form a bullish alignment, coupled with continued inflows from the Solana ecosystem, it could escalate into a sector-wide catalyst. Investors should pay attention to the effectiveness of the $0.385 support level and the flow of funds after the end of the tax loss harvest at the end of December.