Bitcoin FOMC Decision Market Forecast Analysis

TL;DR

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11th (19:00 UTC). The market expects an 83-87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.50-3.75%. Based on historical data, BTC exhibits a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern after the FOMC meeting—a decline occurred in 6 out of 7 meetings in 2025. Currently, the technical outlook is neutral, fluctuating around $92,342. On-chain net outflows and whale accumulation signals are slightly positive, but there is a short-term risk of fluctuations in the $91,000-$95,000 range. Baseline scenario : After the rate cut is implemented, short-term fluctuations test the $89,000-$91,000 support level. Subsequently, if the dot plot releases expectations of easing in 2026, a rebound to $110,000-$120,000 in Q1 is possible. Risk scenario : A hawkish dot plot or a pause in rate cut expectations could trigger a pullback to $75,000-$80,000.

Core Analysis

Federal Reserve Decision Expectations

The probability of interest rate cuts and market pricing :

• The market prices an 83.2-87% probability of a 25bp rate cut to the target range of 3.50-3.75%, with only a 16.8% probability of maintaining the current 4.00%.
• Forward guidance anticipates two more interest rate cuts in 2026 (possibly in June or July), with the terminal interest rate around 3%.
• Core PCE inflation falling to ~2.6% and a softening labor market (unemployment rate of 4.1-4.4%) support the logic for interest rate cuts, but the government shutdown has increased uncertainty due to the data gap.

Key aspects of raster graphics :

• This meeting will release the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). If the dot plot confirms only 1-2 rate cuts in 2026 (rather than the market expectation of more), it will be interpreted as a "hawkish rate cut" strategy.
• Pressure from the Trump administration and expectations of tariffs could push inflation sticky, potentially prompting the FOMC to signal a pause in its easing measures.

Historical Patterns: The Impact of the FOMC on Bitcoin

2025 Pattern Analysis :

Fluctuation characteristics :

• The average abnormal return before the meeting was +1.2% (speculative long positions), and during and after the meeting it was -0.9% (profit-taking).
• Interest rate cut cycles (e.g., September-October 2025): Short-term volatility surges by 15-20%, with a sharp drop often following the initial rebound.
• Reference for the 2022 interest rate hike cycle: BTC cumulative -60%+; 2020 interest rate cut cycle: +900% long-term bull market (QE + zero interest rate environment)

Technical signals

Current price structure (as of UTC 02:53):

• Spot price : $92,342, fluctuating around the 1-hour Bollinger Band middle line at $91,991.
• Key resistance levels : $93,150 (4-hour SMA200) → $94,570 (daily Bollinger Band upper line)
• Key support levels : $91,991 (1-hour BB middle line) → $89,559 (liquidation cluster area, cumulative long risk of $1.39 billion)

Kinetic indicators :

• The RSI is neutral across all timeframes (54.59 for 1-hour chart, 56.99 for 4-hour chart, and 49.08 for daily chart), with no extreme overbought or oversold conditions.
• MACD: The 4-hour chart shows a positive histogram at +276.73, indicating medium-term bullish momentum, but the daily chart is still consolidating below the zero line.
• Moving average structure: The short-term EMA (12) is higher than the EMA (26), but the price is below the SMA (50) $98,126 and the SMA (200) $108,915, indicating that the long-term trend remains under pressure.

Derivatives Market :

• Open interest : $58.15 billion (+0.7% 24h), continued expansion reflects high participation.
• Funding fees : Binance +0.001446%, Bybit +0.003207%, indicating that long positions are paying short positions, showing that leveraged long positions are dominant but fees are moderate.
• Liquidation risk : Short positions are concentrated above $95,511 (totaling $1.07 billion), while long positions are concentrated below $89,559 ($1.39 billion). Under this dual pressure, the trading range is expected to be between $89,000 and $96,000.

Option Max Pain :

• The recent expiring Max Pain contracts are concentrated in the $92,000-$100,000 range, exerting a magnetic effect on the current price and suggesting a high probability of continued range-bound trading in the short term.

24-hour settlement data :

• Total liquidations amounted to $169.6 million, with $135.4 million from short positions and $34.2 million from long positions . Short positions accounted for 79.8% of the liquidations, reflecting the recent price surge that wiped out short positions.

On-chain accumulated signals

Exchange liquidity shrinks :

• The net outflow over the past 7 days (December 3-9) was -15,494 BTC, with a single-day net outflow of -1,996 BTC on December 9.
• Exchange reserves fell from 2.812 million BTC on November 10 to 2.761 million BTC on December 9, a net decrease of 50,684 BTC (-1.8%) over 30 days.
• The value of USD reserves decreased from $298.6 billion to $256.1 billion, reflecting the continued trend of withdrawals to cold wallets.

Whale location changes :

• December 10: 5,964 BTC (worth $557 million) were transferred from Coinbase to an unknown private wallet, indicating that whales were actively withdrawing funds before the FOMC meeting.
• December 8: 43,033 BTC ($3.93 billion) peer-to-peer transfers, no exchanges involved.
• Holdings distribution: Mega whales (>10,000 BTC) increased by 32,820 BTC to 2.897 million (14.52% of circulating supply) this month; shark-level whales (100-1,000 BTC) increased by 33,820 BTC to 5.135 million (25.74%) this month; institutional-level accumulation hedges the distribution of 109,000 BTC from traditional whales.

Institutional behavior indicators :

• ETFs saw net inflows of $115 billion in 2025, but recently faced outflow pressure exceeding $2 billion.
• The Accumulated Trend Score (ATS) is 0.26, indicating a slight distribution but positive net institutional inflows.

Social emotional bias

Narrative theme :

• The market is focusing on interest rate cuts as a catalyst, discussing the potential for a breakout from the descending wedge pattern and expectations of a year-end rebound.
• JPMorgan's institutional report emphasizes strong support levels and upside targets, providing confidence support for bulls.

Key opinion leader positions :

Overall polarity :

• High-quality posts tend to be optimistic, but a fear index of 28 (extreme fear) and an oversold RSI reflect caution among lower-level investors.
• ETFs have recently seen outflows of over $60 million, diverging from bullish sentiment on social media.

Scenario Analysis and Conclusions

Baseline scenario (60% probability): Rebound after consolidation

Triggering conditions : A 25bp rate cut as expected + confirmation of 1-2 rate cuts in the 2026 dot plot.

• Short-term (0-48 hours) : Classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern. Initially, the price surged to $94,000-$95,000 before pulling back to the $89,000-$91,000 support zone.
• Medium term (Q1 2026) : Easing expectations and improved liquidity will drive a rebound to $110,000-$120,000 (+20-30%).
• Supporting factors : Low exchange reserves, whale accumulation, short liquidation pressure, and the $92k maximum pain magnet for options.

Risk Scenario (40% probability): Hawkish Impact

Triggering conditions : Signals of a pause in rate cuts or only one rate cut in the dot plot in 2026 + escalating inflation concerns.

• Extreme downside : A drop below $89,559 would trigger a cascading liquidation, testing the $75,000-$80,000 range.
• Catalysts : Powell's hawkish remarks emphasizing "data dependence," unexpected CPI rebound, and the impact of Trump's tariffs.

Key observation indicators

1. Dot plot details : Forecast of the number of rate cuts in 2026 (≤1 time = hawkish, ≥2 times = dovish)
2. Powell's wording : Does it emphasize "pausing and observing" or "remaining flexible"?
3. First reaction : If the price breaks through the $95,500 short-covering zone with increased volume, the bulls will be in control; conversely, if it falls below $91,000, the bears will dominate.

Trading suggestion framework (not investment advice):

• Bullish Strategy: Stabilization above $92,000 + dovish signals → Target $94,570 (Stop Loss $91,991), Risk-Reward Ratio 1.8:1
• Short selling strategy: Hawkish surprise + break below $91,991 → Target $89,559 (stop loss $93,150), risk-reward ratio 1.5:1
• Risk Management : Volatility has historically surged by 15-20% since the FOMC meeting; it is recommended to maintain a light position and observe, or hedge with options.

Final assessment : After tonight's announcement, there will likely be an initial short-term downward correction (in line with historical patterns). However, given the accumulated signals on-chain and the concentration of short positions in derivatives, if the rate cut occurs as expected and the dot plot is not overly hawkish, the pullback will be a better entry point than a trend reversal . The start of the medium-term (Q1) easing cycle will support a target of $100,000+.