Analysis of TAO's First Halving Event: Price Performance and Impact Assessment
TL;DR
Bittensor (TAO)'s first halving is expected to trigger between December 12-15, 2025 , at which time the block reward will be halved from 1 TAO to 0.5 TAO, and the daily emissions will decrease from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO. However, claims of a "nearly 50% increase" do not match the actual data : TAO's price has fallen 22.64% in the past 30 days, risen only 9.4% in the past 7 days, and rebounded 17.3% from its monthly low. The technical picture shows a neutral to weak trend, but the supply shock from the halving is seen by the community and institutions as a long-term bullish catalyst.
Core Analysis
Halving event mechanism and timing
Triggering Mechanism : Unlike Bitcoin, which is based on block height, the TAO halving is triggered based on a milestone in the total supply.
| index | Current value | Halving trigger point | Remaining distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total circulation | 10,462,827 TAO | 10,500,000 TAO | 37,173 TAO |
| Estimated time | - | Approximately 5 days (~37,172 blocks) | - |
| Block rewards | 1 TAO/block (12 seconds) | Halved to 0.5 TAO/block | -50% |
| Daily emissions | 7,200 TAO | Halved to 3,600 TAO | -50% |
Expected date : Multiple sources indicate between December 12th and 15th. The specific time will be dynamically adjusted due to the redemption mechanism (registration fee is returned to the unissued pool), and there is no fixed UTC time.
Scope of impact : The halving will proportionally affect the rewards of all network participants, including validators (current APY 4.5-6.5%), miners, subnet owners and stakers, as well as subnet emissions of Dynamic TAO alpha tokens.
Price performance verification
Key finding: The query's statement "the price increase is approaching 50%" deviates significantly from the actual data.
| Time period | Starting price | Current price | Change | Data as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The past 30 days | $386.65 | $300.17 | -22.64% | 2025-12-10 |
| The past 7 days | $276.04 | $302.54 | +9.4% | 2025-12-10 |
| From the monthly low | $255.94 | $302.56 | +17.3% | December 2nd to 10th |
| 24 hours | - | $300.19 | -1.46% | 2025-12-10 |
Market performance :
- Current price : $300-$303 (December 10)
- Market capitalization : $2.88 billion, ranked 47th.
- Circulating supply : 9,597,491 TAO (representing 91.7% of the total issuance)
Price trend characteristics :
- After reaching a high of $386.65 on November 10, the market entered a bear market.
- It hit a low of $255.94 on December 2nd (the lowest in the month).
- It has recently rebounded from its lows, but remains below all major moving averages.
- It fluctuated and consolidated between $287 and $315 from December 4th to 10th.
Technical Analysis
Trends and Indicators (as of December 10, 2025):
| index | numerical values | Signal | illustrate |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 47.77 | neutral | No overbuying or overselling, momentum in balance |
| MACD | -13.34 | Bullish divergence | The histogram reading of +4.99 indicates short-term reversal potential. |
| EMA 12 | $292.36 | support | Price breaks through short-term moving average |
| EMA 26 | $305.70 | resistance | Current key resistance level |
| SMA 50/200 | $348.47 / $358.90 | Long-term resistance | Death cross confirms bear market structure |
Key price levels :
- Support levels : $265.66 (lower Bollinger Band), $292.36 (EMA 12)
- Resistance levels : $305.70 (EMA 26, recently tested but failed), $314.36 (Bollinger Band upper line), $348.47 (SMA 50)
Trading volume analysis :
- The recent price increase saw daily trading volume rise to $323 million (December 10th), higher than the 30-day average of $300 million.
- The OBV indicator of -1,966,349 indicates accumulated selling pressure.
- Historically, trading volume on declining days has been higher than on rising days (e.g., $564.79M on November 21st), confirming a distribution pattern.
Derivatives Market
Positions and funding rates (as of December 10, 2025):
- Total open interest : $210.30M, up 2.06% in the last 24 hours.
- Funding rates : Binance -0.010%, Bybit -0.012% (Short sellers paying long positions indicates a bearish market, but this may be excessive).
- 24-hour liquidation : $448,960 total, including short positions of $255,259 (57%) vs. long positions of $193,701.
Derivatives signal : Negative funding rates and higher short liquidation rates provide a contrarian bullish signal, contrasting with the 30-day downtrend.
On-chain and staking data
Supply and Emissions (as of December 9-10, 2025):
| index | Current value | Expected after halving | change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum total supply | 21,000,000 TAO | constant | - |
| Distribution and supply | 9,597,491 TAO | Growth rate halved | -50% daily increase |
| Pledged Amount | 7,365,112 TAO | Gradual growth | Rewards halved |
| Pledge ratio | 77% | Possible rise | Scarcity-driven |
| Pledge TVL | $2.23 billion | Depends on price | Emissions reduction |
Validator Rewards :
- Current allocation: 41% of the subnet emissions go to validators and stakers.
- Average APY: 4.5-6.5% (depending on staking size and subnet performance)
- Halving impact: APY will be halved directly unless TAO price rises or staking concentration increases.
Liquidity distribution :
- Active validators: Approximately 64
- Head validator staking: 25,000-800,000 TAO
- Daily net inflow: +9,510 TAO (2025 trend)
Community and Institutional Sentiment
Core narrative theme :
Supply scarcity catalyst : The community will draw parallels between the halving and historical Bitcoin events, emphasizing the dual supply shock of TAO and subnet alpha tokens, anticipating long-term bullish pressure.
AI Infrastructure Positioning : The discussion envisions the TAO framework as a foundational asset for the machine intelligence economy, with the halving signifying increased network maturity, similar to the evolutionary path of Bitcoin.
Subnet Ecosystem Leverage : Users emphasize the uniqueness of Bittensor's multi-asset economy. Subnets provide leverage exposure to the halving effect, and value realization depends on the success of subnets and actual demand.
Institutional Viewpoint :
- Grayscale 's research report positions the halving as a catalyst for value enhancement, driving long-term appreciation through supply tightening, benchmarking against Bitcoin's historical performance.
- 21Shares launched the ATAO ETP on October 23 and the STAO ETP on November 19, providing institutions with TAO exposure, in line with the halving narrative.
Community concerns :
- Token unlocking and ongoing emissions pressures may offset short-term scarcity gains.
- The adjustment to the staking mechanism (the default reward was changed from automatic TAO conversion to Alpha tokens) has sparked user discussion and position optimization.
- Some argue that the lack of immediate price reaction suggests that the progressive bullish effect will take time to materialize.
in conclusion
Halving event confirmed : Bittensor's first halving will be triggered between December 12th and 15th, 2025. When the total supply reaches 10.5 million TAO, block rewards and daily emissions will be halved by 50%. This is a historic milestone for the network, which will significantly tighten supply growth and affect the reward structure for all participants.
Price performance clarification : The claim in user inquiries that "the price has increased by nearly 50% in the current phase" is inconsistent with the actual data . TAO has fallen 22.64% in the past 30 days, rebounded only 9.4% in the past 7 days, and rebounded 17.3% from the low point on December 2nd. There is no time period or reference point showing a price increase close to 50%. The technical picture indicates a neutral to weak pattern, with the price currently within a bear market channel.
Long-term catalyst potential : Despite short-term price weakness, the halving event provides a foundation for a long-term bullish narrative through supply shock, institutional validation (Grayscale research, 21Shares ETP), and a high collateral ratio of 77%. Sustained value growth will depend on the success of the subnet ecosystem, actual demand growth, and the ability to break through the key technical resistance level of $305-$314.