KAITO Token Unlocking and Market Stability Analysis

TL;DR

KAITO does not have a so-called "phased unlocking plan," but rather continues the standard linear monthly release schedule since TGE in February. No actual unlocking occurred between December 1st and 11th, with the next unlock scheduled for December 21st, releasing approximately 8.35 million tokens (3.5% of the circulating supply). Community controversy mainly focuses on the low value of ecosystem airdrops (e.g., Cysic at only $100 USD), rather than the token unlocking mechanism itself. Technically, oversold signals (RSI 36-38), negative funding rates, and a positive daily OBV suggest a potential bottom formation, but the price approaching ATL $0.611 indicates that the downward trend has not yet fully reversed.

Core Analysis

Origins and Current Status of the Controversy

Historical Controversy (February TGE) :

• The composition of the organization is too high : the team and foundation account for 43% (core contributors 25% + foundation 10% + early supporters 8.3%), while community airdrops account for only 10%.
• YAPS points lack transparency : the calculation of airdrop eligibility lacks clear explanation, some users unexpectedly received large quotas, while others were excluded.
• Top claimants sell off : 76.7% of major claimants quickly reduced their holdings after TGE.

Community sentiment during December :

• Users are extremely dissatisfied with the ecosystem airdrop rewards: top stakers received less than $100 in the Cysic airdrop, and the $BIT ecosystem airdrop was only $11.
• InfoFi's model faces scrutiny: platform algorithm issues, lack of on-chain value, and an overabundance of bot content.
• Key missing element : No specific events or announcements regarding "escalation of the dispute" were found between December 1st and 11th.

The truth about token unlocking mechanisms

Actual unlocking plan (not a "phased unlocking plan") :

December unlock schedule :

• December 1-11 : No unlocking occurred (0 coins released incrementally).
• December 21 : Ecosystem 7.16M + Foundation 1.19M = Total 8.35M tokens (approximately 3.5% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $5.17 million USD).

Current status of distribution and supply :

• As of December 11: 241,388,889 KAITO (24.14%)
• Data source consistency: Cross-validation by CoinMarketCap, Basescan, and Tokenomist.ai
• Methodology: Only tokens that have been unlocked and transferred to non-insider wallets will be counted.

On-chain analysis

Holder distribution and concentration

Top-tier holder structure :

• Top 1: 300.3M tokens (30.03% circulating supply) - Suspected Ecological Treasury
• Top 2: 250M tokens (25.00%) - Suspected core contributors have locked up their tokens.
• Top 3: 108M (10.80%)
• Top 10 Total Control : Approximately 89% of Circulating Supply

Holder Updates (November 27 - December 10) :

• Total number of addresses: 412,308 → 412,518 (+219 addresses, +0.05%)
• There were no major changes to the top-tier wallets, and no significant redistribution after the ecosystem/foundation unlocks.

Selling pressure indicators

Price performance :

• Current price: $0.618 (as of December 11)
• 24-hour decline: -4.47%
• 7-day decline: -8.04%
• ATL is close to $0.611 (December 1st), only 1.1% higher than the current price.

Trading activity :

• Average daily trading volume (December 4-10): $13 million (peak $40.5 million on December 5).
• 24-hour trading volume: $16.3 million
• Token turnover rate: 0.08 (medium liquidity, no extreme sell-off)

Whale behavior :

• No large transfers (>1% of supply) occurred after the system was unlocked on November 21.
• Exchange holdings: Binance hot wallet 4.18 million (0.42%), Coinbase 1.34 million (0.13%)
• No signs of selling : Top-level holding addresses maintain stable balances

Social sentiment analysis

Community core concerns

Disappointment with the ecological airdrop :

Platform sustainability concerns :

• Users claim "InfoFi mode is over," questioning algorithm quality and the proliferation of bot content.
• Short-selling proposal: Balance the weighting of early backers and recent creators, and exclude team-linked accounts.

Discussion on unlocking solutions in vacuum

Key findings :

• There is zero discussion on platforms such as Twitter and Reddit regarding the "phased unlocking plan" or market stabilization measures.
• Only historical mentions were found (unlocked in August), no specific events in December were found.
• Community sentiment is anchored to the value of the ecosystem airdrop, rather than the token release mechanism.

Technical Analysis

Price trends across multiple timeframes

Daily chart (1d) :

• The price is close to the lower Bollinger Band at $0.5924, with resistance at the middle band at $0.6704.
• RSI 36.89 (oversold area)
• MACD histogram +0.0057 (signal of weakening bearish momentum)

4 hours (4h) :

• The price is below the middle band at $0.6431 and approaching the lower band at $0.6100.
• RSI 37.79 (neutral range)
• MACD histogram -0.0034 (confirming downward pressure)

1 hour (1h) :

• The price is near the middle Bollinger Band at $0.6199, with lower support at $0.6096.
• RSI 36.01 (Slightly oversold)
• MACD histogram +0.0008 (short-term momentum reversal signal)

Key support and resistance

Liquidation risk mapping :

• The cumulative risk for long positions below: up to $1 million at $0.5820.
• The cumulative risk for short positions above: up to $1 million USD at $0.6520.
• Asymmetry: Downside exposure is more concentrated; holding the $0.6100 support level is key to stability.

Derivatives Market Signals

Position and funding rates :

• Total open interest: $30.6 million (24h -0.53%, leverage reduced)
• Funding fees: Binance -0.0257%, KuCoin -0.0262% ( negative fees , short sellers pay long positions, potential bullish pressure)
• 24-hour liquidation: Total $68,000 (long positions $60,300 vs. short positions $7,700), reflecting the recent wave of bearish liquidations.

On-Balance Volume (OBV) :

• 1h: -2.18M (negative value)
• 4h: +8.01M (positive value)
• 1d: +415M ( strong positive value , suggesting potential accumulation during a price decline)

Stability probability assessment

Positive factors :

1. Multiple timeframe RSI indicators are oversold (36-38), indicating signs of selling pressure exhaustion.
2. The daily MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating weakening bearish momentum.
3. Negative funding rates indicate that short sellers are in control but still have to pay, posing a potential squeeze risk.
4. A positive OBV divergence on the daily chart (price falling but trading volume accumulating) may indicate institutional accumulation.

Risk factors :

1. The price is below all major moving averages (EMA12/26/50, SMA200), and the long-term downtrend remains unbroken.
2. A break below the $0.5924 support level would trigger a chain reaction of liquidation of $1 million in long positions.
3. 3.5% of the circulating supply will be unlocked on December 21st; insufficient demand could put downward pressure on the supply.

Overall assessment : Technical indicators suggest a 40% probability of a short-term bottom forming above $0.6100, but a trend reversal needs to be confirmed by increased trading volume (breaking through the $0.6396 SMA50).

in conclusion

The claim of a "phased unlocking plan" is inaccurate . KAITO uses a standard Cliff + linear monthly release, with no special batch design. The regular unlock of 8.35 million tokens on December 21st represents only 3.5% of the circulating supply. Historical data shows that price volatility is low within 7 days after a similar release, indicating that the market has already anticipated this.

The key to market stability is not the unlocking mechanism, but demand-driven factors . The core issues at present are: (1) the low value of the ecosystem airdrop weakens user retention; (2) the sustainability of the InfoFi model is questioned; and (3) the proliferation of bot content damages the platform's reputation. Although there are oversold signals and potential accumulation signs on the technical side, if the platform cannot rebuild community confidence through substantial ecosystem value (on-chain integration, high-quality airdrops, and algorithm optimization), even the "mild" unlocking plan will hardly stop the downturn.

Short-term outlook - The $0.5924-$0.6100 support zone is a key battleground. Holding above this level, coupled with the squeeze from negative funding rates, could lead to a rebound to $0.67; a break below this level could test the $0.58 liquidation zone. Investors should focus on major news regarding the Base ecosystem on December 17-18 (mentioned in the Chinese AMA) and the platform's specific responses to the airdrop controversy, rather than solely relying on the unlocking schedule to judge stability.