PIPPIN's market capitalization surges to $480 million: Analysis of the risk of speculators profiting.

Key findings

The PIPPIN token's market capitalization has reached $480.26M (UTC, December 24, 2025), approaching the psychological threshold of $500M, and only 9.3% away from its all-time high of $524M (December 16, 2025). On-chain data shows that the top 20 addresses control 45.79% of the supply , with 41.58% concentrated in unlabeled addresses suspected of being whale. Combined with extremely overbought technical indicators (weekly RSI reaching 95) and widespread manipulation allegations on social media, this exhibits typical short-term pump characteristics of highly controlled tokens, indicating a significant risk of a short-term pullback.

Market Overview

Price and valuation performance

Exchange Coverage : PIPPIN has been listed on 8 trading pairs on 6 exchanges , including perpetual contracts on the three major platforms of Binance, Bybit, and OKX (listed on February 20, 2025, January 17, 2025, and December 2, 2025, respectively). The listing time of the OKX and ASTER contracts highly coincides with the recent price surge.

On-chain concentration analysis

Top 20 holders distribution

Key risk points :

• Extremely high concentration : The top 20 addresses control 45.79% of the supply, with 41.58% distributed across 18 unlabeled addresses , resulting in a lack of transparency.
• The identified institutional holdings are low : only 4.21% are held by exchanges and DEXs, meaning that the majority of the tokens are controlled by private entities.
• Lack of large transaction records : No single transfers exceeding 1% of the supply (approximately 10 million tokens) were detected, but data coverage is limited.
• Fully Circulating with No Lock-up : The total supply of 999.94M is fully circulating, with no unlocking schedule to buffer selling pressure.

Technical signals

Multi-timeframe trend strength

Technical Warning :

• Extremely overbought : The weekly RSI has reached 95, which is at a historically extreme level and usually indicates a sharp correction.
• Volume confirmation : OBV (On-Balance Volume) has risen sharply on both the daily and weekly charts (daily chart: 102B - 2.36B units), confirming upward momentum.
• Distribution signal : When CMF (Cash Flow) turns neutral or negative on the daily/weekly chart, it indicates a possible high-level distribution.
• Support levels : Key support is at $0.426 (1-hour Supertrend), $0.369 (4-hour), and $0.173 (daily). Significant downside potential exists.

Derivatives Market Data

Unusual changes in open interest :

• Total open interest reached $210M, a surge of +82% in 24 hours and +13% in 4 hours, indicating a large influx of new long positions.
• Funding rates were all negative (Binance -0.146%, Bybit -0.089%, OKX -0.666%), meaning short sellers were paying interest to long sellers, indicating an extremely bullish market.
• 24-hour liquidation: $2.17M (Shorts $1.86M vs. Longs $0.31M), indicating a short-term short squeeze.

Liquidation Risk Map :

• Short covering was concentrated in the $0.494-0.514 range, reaching a cumulative high of $31.8M.
• The liquidation of long positions was concentrated in the $0.452-$0.491 range, with a cumulative high of $2.7M ($0.452).
• If the $0.45 support level is triggered, it could lead to a chain reaction of long positions being liquidated.

Social media comments and controversy over market manipulation

Community core question

Manipulation charges :

• The widespread dissemination of data on social media that the Top 250 holders own 97% of the supply points to extreme centralized control.
• Multiple posts claim that insiders used the same wallet to repeatedly pump and dump tokens, a tactic similar to the previous $JELLYJELLY token manipulation.
• Prices surged rapidly from a market capitalization of 1M-25M to 150M-450M (early to mid-December), described as "non-organic growth, manipulated."

Warning narrative :

• Community users warned that "insiders were unloading their positions during the parabolic upward trend," advising retail investors to lock in profits promptly.
• The token has been labeled a "time bomb" and a "criminal coin" due to its high supply concentration and the lack of updates from the project team since August.
• Lack of fundamental support: The AI ​​token originated a year ago, its Twitter account is inactive, and there has been no substantial development progress.

Mood/Tone :

• Overall sentiment was predominantly negative and skeptical during the 15-day observation period (ending December 24, 2025).
• The voices of a few who regret missing out on early low-market-cap opportunities contrast with the mainstream risk warnings.
• No high-influence KOLs have published substantial bullish opinions, while existing anonymous accounts have expressed bearish views.

Comparison of Harvesting Patterns

Risk assessment and operational recommendations

Core risks

1. Supply concentration risk (high) : 45.79% of the chips are controlled by 20 addresses, most of which are unidentified and have the ability to dump the chips at any time.
2. Technical overbought risk (extremely high) : The weekly RSI is at 95, which is in extreme territory. Historically, a 30-50% retracement has typically followed this level.
3. Derivatives overheating risk (high) : Open interest surged by 82%+ in 24 hours with negative funding rates; excessive crowding of long positions could trigger a waterfall-like liquidation.
4. Liquidity Trap Risk (Medium) : Although there is $72 million in daily trading volume, it may be concentrated in a few market makers, raising questions about the true liquidity.
5. Hollowed-out fundamentals (high) : No continuous development, stagnant community operations, and a lack of long-term support for price increases.

Potential harvesting scenarios

Scenario 1: High-level distribution

• The market maker exploited retail investors' FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment by continuously distributing chips in the $0.48-$0.52 range.
• Technical indicators are showing signs of divergence (prices are hitting new highs, but RSI/MACD momentum is weakening) (CMF has turned negative).
• Triggering conditions: Decreasing trading volume + RSI falling below 70

Scenario 2: Waterfall-like drop

• The price touched the $0.45 support level, triggering stop-loss orders from long positions, leading to a chain reaction of liquidations that pushed the price down to $0.37-$0.42.
• Open interest declined rapidly, and funding rates turned positive (long positions exited).
• The pullback could reach 20-30%.

Scenario 3: Repeated Harvesting

• Repeatedly pumping and dumping within a wide range of $0.35-$0.50, profiting from users using leveraged trading.
• Precisely target positions using the liquidation map (short positions at $31.8M above, long positions at $2.7M below).
• It is necessary to observe whether there will be a sharp, short-term price spike.

Operational strategy recommendations

Conservative investors :

• It is advisable to remain on the sidelines or exit the market , as the current risk/reward ratio is unfavorable.
• If holding a position, set a take-profit target of $0.50 (close to ATH), and strictly control the stop-loss at $0.45.

Aggressive investors :

• Participate with a small position when the price rebounds to the $0.50-$0.52 range, and exit with a target profit of 5-10%.
• Do not chase the price higher; wait for a pullback to $0.40-0.42 before considering establishing a position.
• Leverage ratio ≤ 3x, avoid areas with high liquidation activity.

Trend follower :

• Monitor the daily RSI to fall below 50 and the CMF to turn positive as a basis for re-entry.
• A healthy pullback (15-20% correction) is needed on the weekly chart for the trend to be sustainable.

in conclusion

It is true that the market capitalization of the PIPPIN token has surged to $480 million, nearing its all-time high. However, multiple pieces of evidence point to typical pump characteristics of highly controlled tokens, rather than a healthy market-driven surge: 45.79% of the supply is concentrated in 20 addresses, the weekly RSI is extremely overbought at 95, open interest has surged by 82% in 24 hours accompanied by negative funding rates, social media is widely questioning manipulation, and project development has stalled.

Regarding the assessment of "repeated harvesting by large investors" : the current situation is more consistent with a high-level distribution phase following a single pump , rather than a completed cycle of multiple harvests. Technical indicators such as CMF distribution signals, community unloading warnings, and signs of weakening momentum in extremely overbought conditions suggest that a potential first large-scale harvest may be underway or about to be triggered. Retail investors should be highly vigilant about the risk of a chain reaction of liquidations triggered by a breach of the $0.45 support level, as well as the release of selling pressure hidden behind unmarked addresses. It is recommended to prioritize protecting principal and avoid chasing the rally at historical highs.