Bitcoin vs. US Stocks: A Comprehensive Analysis of Expected Surge Before 2026
TL;DR
As of December 25, 2025, the price of Bitcoin was approximately $87,642, a 30.56% drop from the October ATH of $126,080, while US stocks (S&P 500, Nasdaq) hit all-time highs, showing a significant divergence. Technically, the weekly chart shows oversold conditions (RSI 37.5) and a continued decline in exchange reserves suggesting accumulation, but the daily/4-hour charts are both below key moving averages, indicating a bearish structure. On-chain data supports a medium-term bullish outlook (hash rate up 42.45% year-over-year, realized market capitalization a record 1.125T USD), but community sentiment is bearish and a correction is expected in 2026. Overall assessment: A short-term rebound potential to $90k-$95k exists, but the possibility of a "last surge" is low, and 2026 may see a period of consolidation and accumulation.
Core Analysis
Market Performance: US Stock Market Rally Diverges from Bitcoin
Price and market capitalization
- Current price : $87,642 (December 25 UTC closing price)
- Price range (December 25): Opening price $87,496, High $87,946, Low $86,576
- Market capitalization : Approximately $1.75 trillion, circulating supply: 19.97M BTC
- 24-hour trading volume : $24-28 billion, dominance rate 59%
- Price Decline : Down 30.56% from ATH $126,080 on October 6th.
US Stocks Comparison
| index | Closing price on December 24 | state | YTD performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,932.05 | record high | Third consecutive year of increase |
| Dow Jones | 48,731 (+0.60%) | record high | Bank stocks and AI sector performed strongly. |
| Nasdaq | 23,613 (+0.22%) | record high | Technology stocks rebound |
| Bitcoin | $87,642 | Compared to ATH -30.56% | YTD +114% but recent weakness |
Reasons for deviation :
- US stocks benefited from the AI recovery, banking sector gains, and economic resilience, while the Federal Reserve's expected 50 basis point rate cut in 2026 supported risk assets.
- BTC faces net outflows from ETFs (approximately $500 million in December), options expiration pressure ($27 billion on December 26), and specific supply pressures in the cryptocurrency market.
- Bitcoin's underperformance compared to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver challenges the narrative of "digital gold."
Technical Analysis: Oversold Signals and Key Resistance
Multi-timeframe technical indicators
| cycle | RSI(14) | MACD signal | Price vs. Moving Average | Trend Strength (ADX) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | 37.5 (Oversold) | Depth Negative Value Histogram - 3,139 | Below 50 SMA $101,851 | Medium (25) |
| 1st | 43.6 (Slightly bearish) | The bar chart turned positive +214 | Below 50/200 SMA | Moderate decline (23.1) |
| 4 hours | 48.8 (Neutral) | Negative value -44.6 | Below 50/200 SMA | Weakness (11.9) |
| 1 hour | 54.8 (Neutral) | Positive value +77.7 | test moving average | Weakness (14.7) |
Key price level
- Support levels : $86,365 (4-hour Bollinger Band lower band), $84,989 (daily Bollinger Band lower band), $84,365 (liquidation zone)
- Resistance levels : $88,000 (the biggest pain point for options), $88,943 (daily Bollinger Band middle line), $89,151 (4-hour 200 SMA)
Derivatives Market
- Total Open Interest (OI) : $57.5 billion, down 1.51% in the last 24 hours.
- Funding fees : Binance 0.0051%, Bybit 0.0096% (positive, indicating excessive leverage by long positions).
- 24-hour settlement : $54M total (long positions $30M > short positions $24M)
- The biggest pain point for options : $88,000 on December 25th, $95,000 on December 26th, and $90,000 in January.
Exchange liquidity
- 7-day net flow (December 18-24): High volatility, with a maximum outflow of -11,379 BTC (December 23) and a latest outflow of +4,168 BTC (December 24).
- 30-day net flow : Net outflows occurred in 18 out of the 30 days, suggesting net accumulation.
- Reserve trend : From 2.785M BTC on November 25th to 2.759M BTC on December 24th (worth $242B), bullish signal (reduced selling pressure).
On-chain data: fundamental support and long-term signals
Network activity
- Daily active addresses : 470,393 (December 25, UTC)
- Daily trading volume : 405,831 transactions, $33.96 USD
- TPS : 4.70, stable network throughput
Miners and Safety
- Hash rate : 1,068 EH/s (December 23), up 42.45% year-over-year (749.86 EH/s in 2024)
- 7-day average : 1,057 EH/s (+0.8% weekly increase), 30-day average: 1,066 EH/s
- ATH Comparison : The current level has fallen from the peak of 1,441.84 EH/s on September 20th, indicating post-peak stabilization.
Holder behavior
- Exchange reserves : 2,759,146 BTC (December 24), 30-day downtrend (from 2,884,999 BTC on November 25)
- Long-term holders : There was some selling in November (prices fell 40% from their peak), but it did not trigger a sustained bear market; downside risks have already been priced in.
- HODLing Resilience : Sharpe ratio of 1.2 from 2020 to 2025, supporting a strategy of holding continuously amidst volatility.
Valuation Model
- Realized market capitalization : USD 1.125 trillion (record set on December 18), vs. circulating market capitalization of USD 1.97 trillion, suggesting an undervaluation of the relative cost basis.
- Stock-to-Flow model : Predicts an average price of $500,000 in 2025 (range $250k-$1M), based on post-halving scarcity.
- Omega ratio : 1.29 (2020-2025), upside returns outperform downside returns by 29%.
L2 Ecological Activities
- Lightning Network TVL : $234M USD, supports high-speed micropayments
- Stacks L2 TVL : $164.2M (H1 2025, Q1 +97.6%, Q2 +9.2%), strong demand for sBTC deposits (Q2 2,000 BTC quota filled in 2.5 hours)
- Overall L2 TVL : 74% decline by 2025 (overall), but specific projects such as Stacks show institutional adoption growth.
Community sentiment and narrative: caution and cyclical completionism
Emotional polarity
- Overall trend : Bearish and mixed , fear index 23/100 (extreme fear)
- Core narrative : The cycle may have peaked at $125,000 in October, with a winter reset period (consolidation and accumulation) expected in 2026.
BTC vs. Traditional Asset Performance
- Gold, silver, and mining companies significantly outperformed Bitcoin in 2025, with traditional safe-haven assets gaining favor.
- Amid geopolitical tensions and concerns about currency devaluation, investors are favoring gold over Bitcoin.
2026 forecast
- Bearish view : The 2022-2025 wave peaked at $125k in October, and a pullback to the $65k-$75k support zone is possible in 2026.
- Neutral view : Expect 12-18 months of low-excitement consolidation, accumulating momentum for the next cycle.
- Bullish camp : If support holds, it could test $180k, but consensus is weak.
Key topics
- Cycle Completion Theory : The parabolic phase has been established, similar to historical time/price expansion followed by a cooling-off period.
- Quantum risk concerns : KOL Willy Woo points out that the declining adoption of Taproot addresses suggests that the perceived threat of quantum computing is impacting user behavior.
- The cost of mainstreaming : Institutional participation failed to prevent a decline caused by macroeconomic risks (interest rate signals), diminishing its "revolutionary appeal."
in conclusion
Short term (late 2025 - early 2026) : Bitcoin has the potential for a modest rebound to the $90k-$95k range, supported by factors including weekly oversold conditions (RSI 37.5), declining exchange reserves (suggesting accumulation), the $95k option price (expiring on December 26), and the historical average Christmas gain of +7.9%. However, upside is limited by the bearish structure of the daily/4-hour moving averages, continued ETF outflows, and positive funding rates indicating excessive leverage by long positions.
Mid-term (2026) : The probability of a "last surge" is low. Overall data shows:
- Technical Analysis : The price is deeply trapped below the 50/200 SMA on the daily chart; a strong catalyst is needed to break through the $89k resistance level.
- Macroeconomic factors : The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in January; economic resilience supports the stock market, not BTC; the correlation between BTC and M2 liquidity shows no signs of reversal.
- Sentiment : The community anticipates the end of the cycle, and 2026 may be a year of consolidation and accumulation ($65k-$90k range) rather than a parabolic upward trend.
- On-chain : Despite strong hashrates and record market capitalization, a 74% drop in overall L2 TVL is weakening the ecosystem's vitality.
Long term (2027+) : Fundamental support remains: halving supply shock (current inflation rate 0.85%), institutional ETF holdings of $122 billion AUM, and the S2F model's long-term target of $500k-$1M. If the $65k-$75k support zone is held and accumulation is completed in 2026, a new cycle may begin in 2027-2029 (target $300k range).
Risk warning :
- Downside risk: A break below the $84k support level could trigger a deeper correction to $75k-$65k.
- Catalyst Monitoring: US Strategic Reserve Policy, ETF Flow Reversal, Breakthrough of $95k Technical Resistance
- Historical reference: Past bear markets have lasted approximately one year, and the current period is only 2.5 months away from the October peak, suggesting the correction may continue.
Trading Strategy : Conservative investors are advised to remain on the sidelines or build positions in batches within the $84k-$86k range, targeting a short-term rebound to $90k-$95k (risk-reward ratio 1.33). Aggressive investors can speculate on a price surge before the $95k option expires, but must strictly adhere to a stop-loss order at $86k. Long-term investors can utilize the anticipated volatility in 2026 to buy on dips and establish positions based on DCA (Distributed Average Cost of Investing) analysis, preparing for the next cycle.