Key Observations
As of December 26, 2025, gold and silver have reached all-time highs and continued their strong performance, while Bitcoin has retreated by more than 30% from its October peak, accompanied by significant ETF outflows. This divergence reflects the return of safe-haven funds to traditional physical assets amid macroeconomic uncertainty, although on-chain data shows that long-term Bitcoin holders are still accumulating.
Precious metals: Record-breaking surge
Price performance and historical breakthroughs
| assets | Current price | record high | Year-to-date increase | Monthly increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | $4,510-$4,521/ounce | $4,530.49 (December) | +72% | +8.4-8.5% |
| silver | $74-75/ounce | $74.22 (December) | +152-155% | +39-41% |
Gold hit over 50 new all-time highs in 2025, marking its strongest year-to-date gain since 1979. In late December alone, it rose approximately 4%, from $4,347 to its current level. Silver performed even more aggressively, breaking the $70 mark for the first time, with a monthly gain of nearly 40%, demonstrating stronger volatility and speculative activity than gold. (silverprice.org )
Fund Flow: Institutions Continue to Increase Investment
Global gold ETFs saw inflows of $5.2 billion in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of net inflows. Total assets under management reached a record $530 billion, with holdings reaching a record high of 3,932 tons. The World Gold Council's benchmark product, GLD, saw inflows of $22.49 billion this year, with a net asset value return of +69.78%. (coindesk)
Gold ETFs are expected to see inflows every month except May in 2025, potentially setting a new record for annual inflows and reflecting strong institutional demand for physical gold.
Driving factors: Geopolitical factors + expectations of monetary easing
Escalating geopolitical risks : The US blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers has heightened international tensions and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. (x.com)
Monetary policy shift : The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remained at 3.75%, but the market is pricing in two rate cuts in 2026. The moderate inflation rate of 2.70% in November supports expectations of further easing. A low real interest rate environment is traditionally favorable for gold. (Source: Jinshi Data)
De-dollarization trend : Central banks around the world purchased a total of 254 tons of gold in October. Continued de-dollarization strategies and concerns about fiat currency devaluation are driving "debasement trades." ( World Gold Council )
Silver has additionally benefited from increased industrial demand, supply deficits, and policy support from the United States in designating it as a critical mineral.
Bitcoin: Analysis of the "Bleeding" Phenomenon
Price pullback and technical pressure
Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,299 , down 30.79% from its all-time high of $126,080 on October 6. Coingecko, which retreated from above $92,000 in mid-December, has recently been fluctuating between $85,600 and $87,000, indicating significant downward pressure.
Technically, the market is showing signs of weakness and consolidation .
- The price is trading below moving averages on all major timeframes (1-hour, 4-hour, daily, and weekly).
- The RSI indicator is neutral to oversold (the weekly RSI has entered the oversold zone at 37.26).
- The MACD remains negative on the daily and weekly charts, despite slight bullish divergence signals appearing on the 4-hour and daily charts.
- The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is negative in the short-term timeframe (1 hour to daily), indicating distribution pressure.
Key support levels are at $84,782 (lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart) and $80,941 (lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart), while resistance levels are in the $88,505-$92,868 range.
ETF fund outflows: Pre-holiday risk aversion
Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced net outflows for four consecutive trading days, with a total outflow of over $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin as of December 24.
| date | Total outflow (BTC) | IBIT outflow (BTC) | FBTC outflow (BTC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 24 | -2,000 | -1,053 | -197 |
| December 23 | -2,134 | -1,783 | -173 |
| December 22 | -1,606 | — | +68 (Inflow) |
Despite IBIT seeing approximately $25 billion in inflows this year, recent outflows are interpreted as a result of year-end tax losses, portfolio rebalancing, and pre-holiday risk- averse operations.
Derivatives Market: Leverage Cooling
Total futures open interest was $5.7 billion , down 0.82% in 24 hours, indicating a decrease in leverage.
Options open interest is $5.2 billion, with the biggest pain point for short-term expiring contracts concentrated in the $88,000-95,000 range, exerting an attraction on spot prices toward $88,000.
The total liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was $31.6 million (longs $17.7 million > shorts $13.8 million). Longs have a cumulative liquidation risk of $752 million around $84,187, which forms the main support, while shorts have a liquidation wall of over $800 million above $90,000, which forms the resistance.
On-chain data: contradictory signals
Exchange flows are mixed :
- The net inflows over the last 7 days were 4,168 BTC (December 24th) and 50 BTC (December 25th), indicating short-term selling pressure.
- However, looking at the overall 30-day period, exchange reserves decreased from 2,783,881 BTC on November 27th to 2,759,196 BTC on December 25th, a net decrease of 24,685 BTC.
- The number of cryptocurrency-holding addresses increased from 74,692,774 to 75,243,365, a net increase of 550,591 addresses.
This contradiction reflects the simultaneous existence of short-term trading selling pressure and long-term self-custodial accumulation. The large inflow of 11,379 BTC into exchanges on December 23rd suggests possible whale distribution, but the overall declining reserve trend indicates that seasoned holders are still accumulating coins.
Downward Drivers
Risk appetite deteriorates : The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks is amplified by volatility in the holiday season's weak liquidity environment, as market risk sentiment turns conservative. (businessinsider)
Tightening of macro liquidity : Expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike led to the unwinding of yen carry trades, resulting in a marginal tightening of global liquidity; increased uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path increased a wait-and-see attitude.
Technical selling pressure : Short-term holders are the main drivers of losses, with the amount of coins held at a loss rising to 6.7 million BTC (a new cycle high), creating psychological pressure.
Social Emotion: Narrative Differentiation
The narrative of "digital gold" is being questioned.
Social media discussions present a stark narrative shift:
Precious metals defend their safe-haven status : Highly interactive posts highlight silver's consecutive monthly gains and record highs, while gold's 50+ record-breaking performances are seen as proof of the resilience of traditional safe-haven assets. x.com
Bitcoin's performance is being questioned : Some commentators are directly challenging Bitcoin's status as "digital gold," pointing out that it underperforms physical assets in uncertain environments. Some argue that "silver has achieved the initial price expectations for Bitcoin." (x.com)
Liquidity transmission hypothesis : Another view is that the inflow of liquidity into precious metals may subsequently be transmitted to the crypto market, suggesting that the current situation is one of cyclical differentiation rather than structural substitution.
The overall sentiment in the community indicates that, under extreme macroeconomic conditions, capital will prioritize returning to physical safe-haven assets with a thousand-year history of verification, and the safe-haven narrative of digital assets still needs time and more crisis cycles to solidify.
Comparative analysis of fund flows
| Dimension | gold | silver | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Performance this year | +72% | +152% | +72% (from the beginning of the year to the peak in October), -30% (currently above the peak) |
| Institutional Funds | ETFs saw inflows for six consecutive months, with an additional $5.2 billion in November. | SLV holdings increased | ETFs have seen outflows for four consecutive days, totaling over -$1.5 billion. |
| On-chain/physical reserves | The central bank continued to purchase 254 tons (until October). | The supply deficit is widening | Exchange reserves 30 days - 24,685 BTC |
| Risk avoidance attribute verification | Excellent performance during the 2008/2020 crisis | High volatility but strong resurgence in the later stages of a crisis | A rapid recovery in 2020, but the 2022 bear market failed. |
The data clearly shows that although Bitcoin outperformed precious metals in the early part of the year, institutional funds exhibited a clear preference for physical assets as macroeconomic uncertainty intensified towards the end of the year. Record inflows into gold ETFs contrast sharply with pre-holiday outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.
in conclusion
The current market shows a clear trend of safe-haven funds flowing back into physical assets. Gold and silver have hit record highs driven by geopolitical risks, de-dollarization, and expectations of monetary easing. Institutional funds continue to increase their holdings through ETFs, confirming the irreplaceable safe-haven status of physical precious metals in extreme environments.
While long-term on-chain accumulation signals for Bitcoin remain (declining exchange reserves, increasing number of addresses), it has experienced significant ETF outflows and price pullbacks in the short term, resulting in a weak consolidation pattern from a technical perspective. Its "digital gold" narrative failed to perform in tandem with physical gold during this round of macroeconomic stress tests, reflecting that crypto assets are still viewed more as risk assets than safe-haven assets by institutional investors.
This does not signify the failure of Bitcoin's long-term value proposition, but rather reveals that its safe-haven attributes still require further validation over more periods. Currently, the dominance of traditional physical assets in an environment of uncertainty is solidified, but Bitcoin's structural scarcity and decentralized nature ensure its unique value proposition over a longer period. In the short term, before leverage is cleared and liquidity recovers during the holiday season, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate, with the key support level of $84,000-$87,000 holding to determine its future direction.