In-depth analysis of the largest BTC options expiration event in history, worth $23.7 billion.

TL;DR

As of 07:58 UTC on December 26, 2025, approximately $23.7 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire at 08:00 UTC, marking the largest BTC options expiration event in history. The options market exhibits a 0.38 put/call ratio (strongly bullish), with the biggest resistance level at $96,000 . Currently, the BTC price is consolidating around $88,480 , suppressed by market makers' hedging in the $85k-$90k range. The market generally expects a 5-7% release of volatility after expiration, with a potential short-term dip to $82k-$85k to seek liquidity, followed by a potential rally to $95k-$100k driven by call options. Technically, short-term momentum is bullish, but the weekly chart remains in a downtrend, suggesting a potential turning point, but confirmation requires a break above the key resistance level of $90k-$91k .

Core Analysis

Option Expiration Event Confirmation

Size and Historical Significance : This options expiration involves a notional value of approximately $2.36-2.37 billion USD , primarily concentrated on the Deribit exchange ( 268,267 BTC contracts), representing over 50% of the platform's total open interest. (ambcrypto coindesk)

Historical comparison :

• December 26, 2025: $23.7B
• Same period in 2024: $19.8B
• Same period in 2023: $11B
• Annual growth rate: +30%

This signifies a significant increase in the maturity of the Bitcoin options market and institutional participation. (x.com )

Option structure analysis :

Maximum Pain Point : $96,000 - At this price level, at most option contracts will expire worthless, theoretically minimizing losses for market makers. The current price ($88,480) is +8.5% above the maximum pain point, suggesting potential upward pull before expiration. x.com

Market conditions and pre-expiration suppression mechanisms

Current price behavior :

• Spot price : $88,480 (CoinGecko 07:56 UTC)
• 24-hour change : +0.81% ($716)
• 7-day change : +1.29%
• Trading range : $85,000-$90,000 (past week) coingecko

Analysis of the suppression mechanism : Market makers need to conduct Delta-neutral hedging before large-scale option expiration, offsetting option position risk by dynamically buying and selling spot. When call options dominate and are concentrated at high strike prices, market makers will sell spot to hedge when prices rise, creating a "ceiling" effect; and buy spot when prices fall, creating a "floor" support. This mechanically "pins" prices to the $85k-$90k range, suppressing volatility (DVOL implied volatility is approximately 45% ) . ambcryptox.com

Derivatives Market Dynamics

Futures open interest :

• Total open interest : $57.96 billion
• 24-hour change : +0.94%
• 1-hour change : -1.31% (slight decrease as expiration approaches)

Funding rates :

• Binance: +0.00543%
• Bybit: +0.01%
• Interpretation: Positive funding rates indicate that long positions are paying short positions, and the overall market remains bullish.

Recent settlement data (24 hours):

• Total liquidation amount: $80.45M
• Short liquidation: $59.74M (74%)
• Long liquidation: $20.71M (26%)
• Signal: Short selling is dominant, indicating that the market is absorbing selling pressure and prices are holding above the support level.

Liquidation Risk Map :

• Cumulative long liquidation below : $1.23B (concentrated at $85,747)
• Cumulative short covering above : $837M (concentrated at $91,955)
• Asymmetry : The volume of long liquidation below is significantly higher than that of short liquidation above; a break below $86k could trigger a waterfall-like liquidation.

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe kinetics :

Key price levels :

• Near-term resistance : $88,674-$89,350 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper line, daily EMA26)
• Key resistance levels : $91,481 (50-day SMA) → $96,000 (major pain point) → $100,000 (psychological barrier)
• Near-term support : $86,751-$87,722 (4h Bollinger Band lower line, 1h/4h SMA50)
• Key support : $85,000 (strike price of numerous put options, area of concentrated liquidation)

Technical Analysis : Short-term (1h-4h) charts show mild bullish momentum, with the MACD histogram positive and the price above key short-term moving averages. However, the daily and weekly charts remain in a downtrend structure, with the price below all major long-term moving averages (SMA50/200), and the weekly RSI approaching oversold territory (37.95), suggesting that the larger-cycle correction is not yet fully over.

Community sentiment and professional analysis

Mainstream narrative :

1. The mechanical resistance is about to be lifted : The market generally believes that the current sideways movement in the $85k-$90k range is a mechanical resistance caused by market maker hedging operations, rather than organic bearish force. This "lid" will be removed after the options expire, and prices will resume their natural response to supply and demand. x.com

2. Historical precedent supports increased volatility : Large option expiration events have historically been followed by explosive price movements, and the market expects this time to be no exception, with short-term volatility of 5-7% being widely mentioned. (ambcrypto )

3. Expected scenario : Initial decline followed by a rebound: Several analysts point out that after expiration, there may be a brief "liquidity hunt," with prices dipping to $82k-$85k, triggering long liquidation (capturing the $1.23B liquidation wall), followed by a rebound to the $95k-$100k range driven by call options and the easing of hedging pressure. x.com

Key takeaways summary :

Emotional polarity :

• Bullish Dominance : Based on the proportion of call options, historical January performance, and hedging unwinding logic
• Bearish risk : A breach of the $80k-$85k strike price could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.
• Neutral mechanical view : Some believe that short-term fluctuations will continue, and the true direction will have to wait until the first week of January.

Change pattern assessment

Factors triggering a market reversal

Factors supporting an upward trend :

1. The option structure is predominantly bullish : a put/call ratio of 0.38, with call options accounting for over 70% of the notional value.
2. Hedging pressure relieved : After the $23.7B option expired, market makers no longer needed to mechanically sell to suppress prices.
3. Short liquidation dominates : 74% of liquidations in the past 24 hours were short positions, indicating that selling pressure is being absorbed.
4. Exchange outflows : BTC reserves decreased by 0.9% in 7 days, suggesting off-chain accumulation.
5. Seasonal factors : Historically, BTC has performed strongly in January.

Factors hindering a market reversal :

1. Weekly downtrend : Prices remain below all major long-term moving averages, and the weekly MACD is deeply bearish.
2. Liquidation risk : Below $85.7k, there is a $1.23B long liquidation risk.
3. Holiday liquidity : Trading volume is low during the Christmas holidays (traditional financial markets are closed), and volatility may be amplified but lacks sustainability.
4. Macroeconomic uncertainties : Year-end tax settlements and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path next year.

Scenario Analysis

Bullish scenario (probability: 55-60%) :

• Trigger condition : Price holds above $85k support, then breaks through $90k-$91k resistance upon expiration.
• Price path : Brief pullback to $86k-$88k → Breakthrough to $90k → Advance towards the $95k-$100k mark, the biggest pain point/psychological barrier.
• Timeframe : Within 1-2 weeks (before institutional funds return in early January)
• Catalysts : Hedging unwinding + call option dominance + short-term oversold correction (weekly RSI 37.95)

Bearish/Sideways Scenario (Probability: 40-45%)

• Trigger condition : The price falls below the $86k support level after expiration, triggering a chain reaction of long liquidation.
• Price path : Break below $85k → Accelerate to $82k-$80k (secondary support) → Reconsolidate
• Timeframe : A rapid decline within a few days, followed by a possible bottoming out.
• Catalysts : Over-hunting of liquidity + thin liquidity during holidays + macroeconomic risk aversion

in conclusion

This $23.7 billion BTC options expiration event is indeed the largest in history. Its structurally bullish characteristics (0.38 put/call ratio) and the biggest pain point ($96,000, +8.5% from the current price) provide a technical basis for upward movement after expiration. The current sideways movement in the $85k-$90k range is mechanical suppression caused by market makers' hedging, rather than being dominated by organic short sellers.

Regarding the assessment of the "turning point pattern" : Bitcoin is indeed at a potential turning point, but certain conditions need to be met for it to trigger :

1. Short-term key : Hold the $85k-$86k support level and avoid triggering the $1.23B long liquidation wall.
2. Trend reversal confirmed : A valid breakout above the $90k-$91k resistance zone (50-day SMA) accompanied by increased trading volume.
3. Target range : If the upward trend is confirmed, a reasonable target is $95k (the biggest pain point) - $100k (a psychological barrier), and an aggressive target is $110k - $116k (the area with a large concentration of call option strike prices).

Risk Warning : Weak liquidity during holidays may amplify two-way volatility; investors should be wary of the short-term bottoming risk in a "decline followed by a rise" scenario. The weekly technical chart remains in a downtrend; a reversal in a larger timeframe requires stronger fundamental catalysts. Option expiration itself does not determine direction, but rather removes mechanical resistance, allowing the market's true supply and demand to emerge .