Arthur Hayes increases his holdings in PENDLE: Analysis of the continued momentum in the DeFi sector

TL;DR

Arthur Hayes made a significant purchase of 549,868 PENDLE tokens (worth $973,000) on December 26th, marking his third purchase since November. His total holdings now reach 687,000 PENDLE tokens (approximately $1.23 million). Hayes also allocated to LDO ($1.03 million) and ENA ($257,000), building a complete DeFi yield infrastructure portfolio. The Pendle protocol's TVL remains stable at $3.77 billion, with 30-day revenue of $1.48 million and a projected transaction volume of $47.8 billion by 2025 (+36.5% YoY). The overall DeFi sector's TVL remains at $117.9 billion, with Ethereum dominating at 58.5%, but emerging chains like Solana show a 9.5% 30-day increase, indicating fund rotation. Technically, PENDLE is bullish in the short term (1h/4h MACD turned bullish, OI increased by 5.87%), but the daily chart remains in a weak structure (price below the SMA50 at $2.30). Supported by institutional fund inflows, innovative yield protocols (Pendle's launch of the Boros platform), and improved macro liquidity expectations, the DeFi sector has the potential for continued momentum in the short term.

Core Analysis

Arthur Hayes' DeFi Configuration Strategy

Portfolio Construction Timeline

Configuration Logic and Market Signals

• Yield Infrastructure Staking : PENDLE (yield tokenization) + LDO (liquidity staking) + ENA (synthetic dollar) constitute a complete DeFi yield layer. Hayes uses this combination to cover three major tracks: fixed income, floating income, and stablecoin yield. lookonchain

• ETH Rotation Strategy : On December 20th, Hayes explicitly stated that he would rotate from ETH to "high-quality DeFi tokens," believing that DeFi would outperform other sectors in an environment of improved fiat currency liquidity. x.com

• The pace of buying accelerated : from a single transaction of $260,000 in November to a single transaction of $973,000 in December, the amount of capital invested grew exponentially, indicating that confidence was strengthening rather than tentative position building.

Pendle Protocol Fundamentals

2025 Operational Performance

• TVL Update : Current value is $3.77 billion, with a 2025 average of $5.8 billion (+79% YoY) and a peak of $13.4 billion. The decline in TVL from its peak is mainly due to changes in the yield environment and seasonal redemptions, but the 7-day growth of +3.0% indicates signs of stabilization.

• Revenue and Transactions :

  • Annualized income of $40 million, actual income in 30 days: $1.48 million.
  • Transaction volume in 2025 is $47.8 billion (+36.5% YoY).
  • Fixed income settlements totaled $58 billion (+161% YoY).

Product Expansion and Innovation

• Boros platform : The newly launched on-chain funding rate trading platform has reached $80 million in open interest, $5.5 billion in notional trading volume, and an annualized revenue of $730,000. This marks Pendle's expansion from simple yield tokenization to derivatives trading, opening up a new growth curve.

• 2025 Roadmap :

  • V2 upgrade (license-free deployment, dynamic rates, enhanced vePENDLE)
  • The Citadels plan (expanding to non-EVM chains such as Solana/TON, TradFi compliant, Shariah compatible)
  • Boros expands to any revenue source

User activity

• Daily active users: 2,381; Weekly active users: 14,060; Monthly active users: 32,587
• The average pool yield is 7.48% APY, with some individual pools like PT-sUSDai reaching 13.06% APY, making them attractive in a low-interest-rate environment.

On-chain analysis

PENDLE token distribution

Top 10 Holder Structure

Distribution characteristics :

• The top 10 addresses control 66.34% of the supply, which is a relatively high concentration, but it is normal for DeFi protocols (including protocol contracts and cross-chain bridges).
• The 23.92% lock-up period for vote escrow contracts reflects community governance participation.
• Binance addresses accounted for 8.55% of the total, indicating ample liquidity on the exchange.

DeFi sector fund flows

Overall TVL trend

• Total : $11.791 billion (24-hour increase of 0.26%)
• 7-day change : Slight decline of -0.28%, but within the normal fluctuation range.
• Main chain distribution :

Hot Topics at the Agreement Level

Top 5 30-day TVL growth rates:

1. YieldBasis +388% (TVL $146.7M)
2. Lorenzo Protocol +144% (TVL $93.5M)
3. Avantis +112% (TVL $118.6M)
4. Goldfinch +71.3% (TVL $783.9M)
5. Polymarket +50.8% (TVL $242.9M)

Comparison of leading revenue-sharing agreements:

Social sentiment analysis

KOL perspectives and market narratives

Key bullish arguments

Community emotional characteristics

• FOMO level : After Hayes bought in, discussions in the community such as "What does he know?" and "Christmas pump is coming" emerged, indicating a herd mentality. x.com

• Narrative theme :

  1. ETH → DeFi Rotation: Hayes's ETH Selling and DeFi Allocation Interpreted as a Major Cycle Reversal Signal
  2. Revitalization of Income Infrastructure: Fixed Income Strategies and PT/YT Mechanisms Gain renewed attention
  3. RWA Tokenization Growth: Synergy with Revenue Protocol, Supported by TVL Growth

• Opposition is limited : The main risk warnings focus on the high speculative risks of YT and Hayes' history of selling PENDLE at a loss in September 2024, but recent continuous increases in holdings have overshadowed the negative memories of the past.

Controversy Focus

• Debate on Hayes' motivation : Some argue that it was an optimization of his personal portfolio (diversification from ETH) rather than an absolute bullish view on PENDLE itself; however, the three consecutive additions to his position, with each transaction totaling nearly $1 million, demonstrate strong conviction.

• Macro vs. Micro : Bulls emphasize the improved liquidity environment against the backdrop of macroeconomic conditions, while bears question whether DeFi can truly absorb incremental funds (compared to hot topics such as AI and RWA).

Technical Analysis

PENDLE pricing behavior

Multi-timeframe signals

Key price level

• Support zone : $1.78-$1.81 (1-hour Bollinger Band lower rail + long order liquidation cluster, risk exposure $200,000-$500,000)
• Resistance zone : $1.89-$1.92 (4h/1h Bollinger Band upper rail + short-term liquidation cluster, risk exposure $40,000-$180,000)

Daily chart structure contradictions

• The price is close to the EMA12 ($1.876) but well below the SMA50 ($2.301) and SMA200 ($3.759), indicating that the medium- to long-term downtrend remains intact.
• The ADX 38.6 indicator shows a strong trend (currently a downtrend), and Supertrend has issued a short signal at $2.141.
• A CMF of -0.143 indicates capital outflow (distribution phase).

Derivatives Market

Positions and funding rates

• Total open interest : $42.26M (+5.87% 24h), the increase indicates new funds entering the market.

• Funding rates : 0.005%-0.01% is positive, indicating that long positions are paying short positions, suggesting a mildly bullish bias but not overheated.

• 24-hour settlement :

  • Total $68,000 (long positions $11,000, accounting for 17%, short positions $57,000, accounting for 83%)
  • Short selling dominates, supporting short-term upward momentum.

Liquidation heatmap risk

• Below $1.78, there is a $200,000-$500,000 long-term liquidation barrier; a break below this level could trigger a chain reaction of stop-loss orders.
• Short-term orders above $1.90 were liquidated relatively widely ($40,000-$180,000), indicating relatively low resistance to a breakout.

Comprehensive technical assessment

Bullish factors :

• Short-term MACD golden cross, price breaks through short-term moving average system
• OI growth + short selling liquidation as the main drivers
• Approaching the daily EMA12 support level

Bearish risk :

• The daily chart structure has not improved, and the price remains under pressure from the SMA50/200.
• A negative CMF value indicates an outflow of major funds.
• There is still 75% upside potential to ATH $7.50, with heavy overhead resistance.

in conclusion

The three pillars supporting the continued momentum of the DeFi sector have been initially established :

1. Institutional fund allocation signals : Arthur Hayes has continuously added $1.23 million to his PENDLE portfolio and allocated $1.03 million to LDO and $257,000 to ENA, constructing a complete DeFi yield portfolio, validating professional investors' confidence in yield infrastructure. This allocation strategy is consistent with his public statements about "rotating from ETH to high-quality DeFi" and is therefore credible.

2. Protocol-level innovation continues : Pendle launched the Boros platform to expand into funding rate trading ($80 million OI), and the V2 upgrade and Citadels multi-chain expansion plan demonstrate product iteration capabilities. The overall DeFi sector saw high-growth projects such as YieldBasis (+388%) and Lorenzo Protocol (+144%), proving that capital is seeking new narratives.

3. Improved macro liquidity expectations : Macroeconomic factors such as China's QE injection and the Fed's policy shift provide support for risk assets, while DeFi, as an on-chain financial infrastructure, is at the center of trends such as RWA tokenization and stablecoin growth ($308.5 billion market capitalization).

However, the sustainability of the continued heating is facing challenges :

• Technical indicators have not fully turned bullish : Pendle's daily chart remains in a weak structure, requiring a break above $2.30 (SMA50) and stabilization to confirm a trend reversal. The current short-term rebound may face resistance in the $1.89-1.92 range.

• DeFi TVL growth is sluggish : Overall DeFi TVL was $117.9 billion, up 0.26% (24h) and down 0.28% (7d), not yet recovered from the 2025 peak. Funds are rotating between protocols (such as Solana Chain +9.5%) rather than experiencing large-scale net inflows.

• Hayes' motives are questionable : he sold PENDLE at a loss in September 2024, and his recent purchases may be a tactical buy the dips rather than a strategic bullish move. It remains to be seen whether he will continue to increase his holdings or begin to reduce them.

Short-term (1-2 weeks) outlook : If PENDLE holds the $1.78 support level and breaks through $1.92, it could test $2.20-2.30; if it falls below, it will pull back to $1.50-1.60. The DeFi sector, driven by the Hayes effect and improved year-end liquidity, is expected to continue its structural rally (focusing on yield protocols and emerging chains), but an overall bull market still needs to be validated by a stable $12 billion TVL (+2%).

Mid-term (1-3 months) outlook : Focus on the January Fed policy meeting, liquidity injections before the Chinese New Year, and the launch window for Pendle V2. If macro liquidity improves as expected and Pendle breaks through the key resistance level of $2.30 on the daily chart, Hayes' prediction of "DeFi outperforming" may come true, with the sector potentially seeing a 10-20% upside. Conversely, if it falls into a $1.50-1.90 range, it will only be a rebound rather than a trend reversal.