PE Market Sentiment Analysis: Multi-Dimensional Data Verifies Upward Momentum

TL;DR

PEPE exhibited strong upward momentum on January 1, 2026, with a 24-hour increase of +17.28%, a surge in trading volume of +107% to $350 million, and a jump in futures open interest of +34.03% to $311.9 million. Technically, it is extremely overbought in the short term (1-hour RSI 92.77), but the balance of power between bulls and bears is significant: 98% of the $1.05 million liquidated in the past 24 hours was short, and the positive funding rate indicates bullish dominance. On-chain data shows an average daily trading volume of $310 million over the past 30 days, with nearly 500,000 holders. Social sentiment is highly bullish, and KOLs generally favor the next cycle. Considering multiple data points, a short-term pullback risk coexists with continued upward momentum.

Core market performance

Price and liquidity indicators

As of January 1, 2026 (UTC), PEPE was trading at $0.0000047 , a 24-hour increase of +17.28% , with a market capitalization of $1.97 billion (CMC ranking #39). Trading activity has increased significantly, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $350 million , a surge of +107% compared to the previous day, and 635 active trading pairs. The all-time high was $0.000028 (December 9, 2024), and the current price represents an 83% retracement from the ATH level.

Exchange coverage and liquidity distribution

PEPE is listed on 10 major exchanges (BINANCE, BYBIT, OKX, COINBASE, UPBIT, etc.), offering 31 trading pairs. In the spot market, it covers multiple fiat currency pairs such as USDT/USDC/FDUSD/EUR on Binance, while OKX and Bybit offer the mainstream USDT/USDC/EUR pair. In the futures market, it is deployed on Bitget (USDC/USDT), OKX (USDT), and Binance (1000PEPE/USDC). In 2025, expansion into key markets such as Bithumb (September) and Bybit (September) will provide incremental liquidity support.

On-chain activity analysis

Holder structure and supply distribution

PEPE is currently held by 498,736 addresses, with a total supply of 420.69 trillion coins in full circulation (no lock-up plan). The top 10 holders control 40.65% of the supply, primarily held by exchange addresses: Binance holds 17.29% (combined from multiple wallets), and Bithumb holds 2.02% , indicating that centralized exchanges dominate the distribution of tokens. 1.64% of the supply (6.92 trillion coins) has been burned, and Uniswap V2 pools hold 0.85% .

30-day on-chain transaction trend

Over the past 30 days (December 2, 2025 to December 31, 2025), the daily average trading volume on the DEX was $310 million , peaking at $519.5 million ( December 10) and bottoming out at $165.7 million (December 25), with a cumulative trading volume of $9.3 billion . The daily average number of active addresses was approximately 950 , with an average of 1,340-2,675 contract interactions per day. The average token turnover rate (circulating supply) was 0.17 , indicating a moderate level of liquidity rotation. High trading volume days (December 10 and 19) exceeded $400 million, suspected to be driven by whale activity.

Social sentiment analysis

Dominant Narrative and Community Consensus

Social media sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish , with the core narrative revolving around PEPE's historical performance, which surged from a low market capitalization to billions after the FTX crash in 2023. The community positions it as a "reliable opportunity in the bear market." Key themes include: (1) a long-term holding strategy, calling for holding through the bear market to wait for the next bull market; (2) a link to ETH beta, anticipating that PEPE's gains will amplify when ETH breaks through; and (3) perpetual contract trading volume being higher than competitors of similar market capitalization (such as WIF), suggesting undervaluation or potential momentum. There is no significant FUD or negative discussion, and past challenges are framed as obstacles that have been overcome.

KOL perspectives and influence dissemination

Social engagement remained stable on narrative-driven posts, with holders sharing similar experiences to create a resonance loop. Promotional activities such as exchange giveaways generated superficial buzz but lacked in-depth analytical value.

Technical Analysis

Multi-period technical indicator matrix

The short-term technical picture presents a complex mix of extreme overbought conditions and a strong upward trend . The 1-hour RSI reaches 92.77 (extremely overbought zone), and the 4-hour RSI is 79.16 (overbought), but the daily RSI of 60.04 (neutral to bullish) suggests further upside potential in the medium term. The MACD is bullish across the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily timeframes (Hist value is positive), with the 1-hour ADX at 43.87 indicating a strong trend, while the 4-hour ADX at 22.82 indicates a weakening trend. The price is above all moving averages (EMA12/26, SMA50) on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, and the CMF indicator (1-hour +0.47 , 4-hour +0.43 ) shows capital inflows.

The weekly technical chart shows a long-term bearish bias : the RSI is close to oversold at 37.41 , the MACD is bearish, the price is below all moving averages, and the CMF is -0.10 , indicating distribution pressure and suggesting a fragile long-term structure.

Derivatives Market Dynamics

Futures open interest (OI) reached $311.9 million , a surge of +34.03% in the last 24 hours, and continued to rise with +7.4% in the last 1 hour and +22.2% in the last 4 hours. Gate.io leads with $132 million . The funding rate has turned positive at 0.01% (8-hour timeframe), indicating that longs are paying fees to shorts, suggesting that bullish sentiment is dominant but there is a risk of reversal.

24-hour liquidation data reveals extreme long-short imbalance : total liquidation $1.05M , of which shorts $1.03M (98%) vs longs $23k (2%) , with a large number of shorts being squeezed out, pushing prices up.

Key price range and risk map

Support level :

• 1-hour Bollinger Band lower rail: $0.00000383
• 4-hour Bollinger Band lower band: $0.00000380
• Long position liquidation concentration zone $0.00000426 (cumulative long positions of $2.53M)

Resistance level :

• 1-hour Bollinger Band upper band: $0.00000464
• Short selling concentration zone: $0.00000460-0.00000504 (cumulative short positions of $1.17M)

ATR (1 hour) $0.000000071 , indicating an intraday fluctuation range of approximately 1.5%. If the current price of $0.0000047 breaks through the $0.00000464 resistance, it will trigger a short-covering chain reaction down to $0.00000504 (+7.2% upside potential); if it breaks below the $0.00000426 support, it will trigger a $2.5M long liquidation sell-off.

Trading Strategy Framework

Long position setup : Short-term momentum is likely to continue, but a pullback from overbought conditions should be anticipated. Entry range: $0.00000450-0.00000460 , stop-loss below the $0.00000426 support level, target $0.00000464-0.00000480 (short liquidation resistance zone), risk-reward ratio approximately 1:1.5. The surge in open interest, short-dominated liquidation, and positive funding rates provide a long rationale, but the extreme 1-hour RSI level warrants caution regarding a potential short-term top.

Risk factors : The weekly technical chart shows a bearish trend, short-term cycles are extremely overbought, and high positive funding rates all suggest medium-term downward pressure. A break below $0.00000426 would trigger a liquidation sell-off to the $0.00000380 range (-14.9% downside risk).

in conclusion

PEPE is currently in a critical state of short-term strong upward momentum but fragile medium- to long-term structure . Market enthusiasm is fully confirmed by quantitative data: trading volume has doubled, open interest has increased by 34% in a single day, short liquidation accounts for 98%, and social sentiment is highly unified and bullish. Technically, extreme overbought conditions coexist with a strong trend in the short term, and the severe imbalance between bullish and bearish forces in the derivatives market provides short-term upward momentum for prices.

Whether the new round of market rally will continue depends on three key variables: (1) whether it can break through the $ 0.00000464 resistance level to trigger a chain reaction of short liquidation; (2) whether the overbought condition can be digested through sideways movement rather than a deep correction; and (3) when the bearish bias on the weekly chart will be corrected. Current data supports the baseline scenario of a short-term inertial rise to the $0.00000480 range (+2% upside) , but in the medium term, investors should be wary of the risk of a sell-off triggered by the failure of the $0.00000426 support level. Investors should closely monitor changes in open interest, shifts in funding rates, and whether the daily RSI forms a top divergence or other reversal signals.