Trump's assessment of military action against Iran and its impact on Bitcoin
TL;DR
As of January 15, 2026 UTC, the Trump administration is weighing military options against Iran to support protesters, discussing including surgical airstrikes but with no concrete signs of action. Historical data shows that US-Iran conflicts typically cause Bitcoin to initially drop 3-5% before rebounding to higher levels. The current BTC price is $96,491, and technical analysis indicates a 60% probability of breaking through $100,000 and a 40% probability of a pullback to the $94,000 support zone.
Military Operation Possibility Assessment
Current geopolitical situation
As of January 15, 2026, protests in Iran continued to escalate, spreading to all 31 provinces since demonstrations were sparked by a currency crash on December 28, 2025. Human rights organizations estimated the death toll among protesters to be between 2,400 and 5,000, with over 10,000 arrested.
The evolution of the Trump administration's position reveals a clear tendency toward intervention:
| Time Node | Key Statements/Actions | Policy signal strength |
|---|---|---|
| January 9-10 | Trump warned Iran that it would face U.S. intervention if it opened fire on protesters, promising "help is coming." | High-Open Threat |
| January 13-14 | A high-level White House meeting discussed airstrikes on Iranian military facilities; Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Netanyahu. | High-level policy coordination |
| January 14 | The United States has begun withdrawing troops from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and other bases in the Gulf as a precautionary measure. | Medium-high level - Combat readiness adjustment |
| January 15 | Trump stated that according to "key sources," Iran has halted executions, but expressed a "wait-and-see" approach regarding military action. | China - Wait and see attitude |
Expert evaluation and limiting factors
Analysis of the likelihood of military action :
- Supporting factors : ABC News analysis suggests that given Trump's preference for short-term actions and Iran's weakest state in years, a surgical airstrike on the Revolutionary Guard/Bas base is highly likely.
- Restraining factors : As of January 14, there were no clear signs of military asset accumulation; there was no consensus within the government on airstrikes; there was a risk of Iranian retaliation against US military bases (such as Al Udeid) and regional instability.
- Iran responded : On January 15, the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that the government had "complete control" of the situation and had no immediate plans for executions; the Revolutionary Guard's Aerospace Force was on high alert; and Iraqi militia groups such as Hezbollah threatened to use force against the United States if Iran was attacked.
Overall assessment : The probability of a limited airstrike in the short term (1-2 weeks) is approximately 40-50% , but the probability of large-scale military intervention or regime change is low (<20%). Trump's repeated warnings are likely primarily a deterrent, while reserving options for possible actions.
The impact of the historical US-Iran conflict on Bitcoin
Price reaction to key events
| event | time | BTC initial reaction | Subsequent trend | Recovery period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soleimani assassinated | January 3, 2020 | +5% to $7,370 (within 24 hours) | After peaking at $8,500 within a week, it pulled back. | 7-10 days |
| US and Israel strike Iranian nuclear facilities | June 2025 | It fell below $105,000 (market capitalization evaporated by $40 billion). | July price stabilized at $117,000-$120,000 | 30-45 days |
| Evacuation order/Tariff threat | January 13-14, 2026 | It surged more than 5% from $91,000 to $95,000. | Subsequent reports indicated that the price of nuclear facilities had fallen below $100,000. | in progress |
Volatility patterns and correlations
Short-term volatility characteristics :
- The event triggered a "liquidity cleansing" sell-off, causing BTC and other risky assets such as stocks to fall by 0.5-1% in tandem.
- A rebound typically occurs within 24-48 hours, with a magnitude of 3-5%.
- During the 2025 strike, the daily volatility range widened to $3,000-$4,000 (2-3% volatility).
Medium- to long-term performance :
- The average increase in the 30 days following geopolitical events was +13.7%, and the average increase in the 90 days was +19.6%.
- Tensions in the Middle East/Latin America have a more significant impact on BTC.
- BTC is gradually transitioning from a "risk asset" to a "hybrid of risk hedging," exhibiting safe-haven characteristics after the initial sell-off.
Driving factors :
- At the institutional level: Margin calls and stop-loss orders triggered liquidity selling during the shock; ETF fund flows (outflow of $6 billion in early January 2026) affected the underlying price.
- Narrative-wise: "Digital gold" attracts safe-haven funds amid ongoing tensions; demand for sanctions evasion (Iran uses cryptocurrency to bypass financial blockades).
- Macroeconomic Interaction: Soaring oil prices (20% risk to global supply) reduce expectations of interest rate hikes, benefiting risk assets.
Current market technology positioning
Price and Technical Indicators
Key price level analysis (as of 02:26 UTC on January 15, 2026):
| index | numerical values | Technical meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $96,491 | In a medium-term upward channel |
| RSI(14) 1 hour | 57 | Neutral, no overbought or oversold conditions |
| RSI(14) 4 hours | 69 | Approaching overbought levels, upside potential is limited. |
| RSI(14) Daily Chart | 68 | Slightly overbought, a pullback and consolidation is possible. |
| MACD 4-hour | +384 (Bullish) | Momentum continues to rise |
| MACD daily chart | +698 (Strongly bullish) | Medium-term trend established |
Support and resistance levels :
- Key support levels : $94,331 (1-hour lower Bollinger Band), $95,000 (maximum pain point area for options), $93,566 (4-hour middle Bollinger Band)
- Key resistance levels : $98,206 (1-hour Bollinger Band upper line), $100,000 (psychological level + liquidation concentration zone)
Derivatives Market Signals
Position and funding rates :
- Total open interest in futures contracts: $65.57B (24-hour increase of 2.7%), indicating increased participation and potential amplified volatility.
- Funding fees: Binance +0.0026%, OKX +0.0041%. Long positions pay short positions, moderate bullish pressure but no extreme overcrowding.
- Open interest in options contracts: $38.95B. The biggest resistance level for near-expiration dates is concentrated in the $94,000-$95,000 range, forming a magnetic support level.
Distribution of liquidation risks :
- 24-hour liquidation total: $175M (Shorts $154M vs. Longs $21M), confirming bullish sentiment dominated by short squeeze.
- Downside risk for long positions: The $93,431 price level presents a $2.36 billion exposure, with a high risk of a cascading effect from a decline.
- Upside risk: The $99,794 price level represents $1.58 billion . A break above this level would create significant upside potential and an asymmetric upward advantage.
On-chain fund flow :
- Recent net outflows: January 14 -18,696 BTC, January 13 -6,213 BTC, indicating off-chain accumulation (bullish, reducing selling pressure).
- Exchange reserves fell to 2.72 million BTC ($263.7 billion), supporting confidence among long-term holders.
Bitcoin Impact Prediction under Military Operation Scenario
Scenario 1: Limited air strikes (probability 40-50%)
Triggered by : Trump ordering a surgical strike on Revolutionary Guard facilities without ground troop intervention.
BTC Price Path Prediction :
| stage | Timeframe | Price Target | probability | Drive logic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| initial impact | 0-24 hours | Fall to $94,000-$92,000 | 60% | Risk asset sell-off + cascading long liquidations ($2.36 billion exposure) |
| rebound phase | 2-7 days | Rebound to $98,000-$100,000 | 70% | Risk aversion narrative + short squeeze ($1.58 billion resistance) |
| Medium-term stability | 2-4 weeks | Breaking through $100,000 - $105,000 | 55% | Sanctions-driven demand avoidance + ETF fund inflows + oil price increases |
Key variables :
- Intensity of Iranian retaliation (attacks on US bases would exacerbate selling pressure)
- A surge in oil prices (>20%) is beneficial for safe-haven assets.
- The Federal Reserve's response to inflation (interest rate hike expectations suppress rebound)
Scenario 2: Conflict escalation/regime change (probability 15-20%)
Triggered by : large-scale military operations, continued attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, and the spread of regional war.
BTC Price Path Prediction :
| stage | Timeframe | Price Target | probability | Drive logic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme sell-off | 0-48 hours | Fall to $88,000-$90,000 | 50% | Global risk asset crash + forced liquidation (refer to the $40 billion market value evaporation in June 2025) |
| Risk-averse rotation | 1-2 weeks | Rebound to $95,000-$98,000 | 60% | USD/Gold/BTC Triangular Hedging Strategy |
| Uncertain period | 1-3 months | Wide fluctuations between $90,000 and $110,000 | 70% | Depends on war progress, the depth of sanctions, and macro liquidity |
Extreme risks :
- The Strait of Hormuz is blocked (oil prices surge to over $150/barrel, global economic recession anticipated).
- Damage to nuclear facility triggers radioactive leak (polarizing global risk aversion)
- Chinese and Russian intervention (crypto market liquidity depletion)
Scenario 3: Successful deterrence/diplomatic détente (probability 35-40%)
Triggering the event : Trump's threats worked, Iran halted its crackdown or began negotiations; protests subsided.
BTC Price Path Prediction :
| stage | Timeframe | Price Target | probability | Drive logic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emotional Repair | 3-7 days | Stable between $96,000 and $98,000 | 65% | Geopolitical premium fades, fundamentals return to normal |
| Technological breakthrough | 1-2 weeks | Testing $100,000 resistance | 60% | After the RSI overbought condition was resolved, the upward trend resumed. |
| New high established | 2-6 weeks | Breakthrough to $105,000-$110,000 | 50% | It conforms to the historical pattern of "+19.6% after a geopolitical event" (90 days). |
catalyst :
- Trump declares "victory" on Iran policy (market risk appetite rebounds)
- In late January, the Federal Reserve signaled an interest rate cut (due to improved liquidity).
- BTC ETF net inflows turn positive (institutional allocation recovers)
Market Sentiment and Social Media Insights
KOLs have differing opinions.
Bullish camp :
- Michaël van de Poppe: Despite intraday volatility caused by Trump-Iran uncertainty, BTC held key support and is expected to break through $100,000 within 1-2 weeks, reaching a new high in February.
- Will Clemente: Geopolitical risks create an ideal environment for BTC. Although it hasn't attracted buying interest yet, the long-term trend is bullish, with spot buying driving the recent rise.
Cautious viewpoint :
- Will Clemente added: Geopolitical risks have increased, but BTC has failed to attract safe-haven funds; although funding rates are negative (shorts pay longs), there is a lack of strong buying pressure.
Community Narrative
Mainstream viewpoint :
- BTC is considered an undervalued safe-haven asset, similar to the role of gold/silver in geopolitical conflicts.
- Short-term volatility stems from uncertainty, but long-term benefits come from the historical upward trend following the conflict.
- BTC price showed resilience (abnormal rise) amid news of the Iranian strikes, signaling a bullish trend.
Point of divergence :
- Should we increase our holdings at the current level (accumulating positions in the support zone vs. waiting for a pullback to below $94,000)?
- The Substantial Impact of Iranian Sanctions on BTC Price (Narrative-Driven vs. Limited Actual Purchasing Power)
in conclusion
Probability of Military Action : The likelihood of the Trump administration taking restrictive military action against Iran is moderately high (40-50%), but the probability of large-scale intervention is low. Currently, we are in a highly uncertain "deterrence-wait-and-see" phase; the policy direction will become clearer within 1-2 weeks.
Bitcoin Impact Path : Based on historical data and current technical indicators, regardless of the scenario, BTC will face a 3-5% volatility shock in the short term (0-7 days), but is likely to rise in the medium term (30-90 days). The key watershed is the $94,000 support (triggering cascading liquidation) and the $100,000 resistance (the trigger point for short squeeze).
Investment strategy recommendations :
- Conservative approach : Wait for a breakout to accumulate around $94,000, stop loss at $92,000, target $100,000 (risk-reward ratio 2.5:1)
- Aggressive strategy : Hold long positions at the current level, with the first target at $98,200, and a further target of $105,000 if the price breaks through. Stop loss at $95,000 (risk-reward ratio 1:1 to 1.5:1).
- Hedging strategy : Use a small position of put options to hedge against extreme downside ($90,000 strike price), while maintaining a long position in the spot market to capture medium-term upside.
The market has partially priced in geopolitical risks (rising derivatives positions + positive funding rates), but unforeseen events could still trigger a short-term liquidity crisis. We recommend closely monitoring subsequent statements from the Trump administration, developments in Iran, and changes in US troop deployments.