AXS Unlocking and Futures Launch Analysis Report

TL;DR

AXS completed the unlocking of 652,500 tokens (0.24% of the total supply) on January 7th, bringing its current circulating supply to 99.5%. Hyperliquid and Orderly Network launched new AXS perpetual contracts on January 18th and 19th respectively, triggering a 54% price surge to $1.98 before falling back to $1.72. Negative funding rates (-0.13% average) and the futures-spot price spread ($0.02) provide arbitrage opportunities, but arbitrage discussions on social media are limited, with more focus on fundamental changes brought about by ecosystem improvements (bAXS, SLP discontinuation).

Core Unlock Dynamics

January Unlock Status

AXS completed a single unlock event on January 7, 2026 UTC , releasing 652,500 AXS tokens into the circulating supply.

Features of the unlocking mechanism :

• Linear release : Staking rewards unlock continuously at a rate of approximately 21,757 AXS per day (equivalent to 652,710 AXS every 30 days).
• Diminishing reward strategy : Starting December 1, 2025, staking rewards will decrease by 5% every 9 days, aiming to extend the lifespan of the reward pool.
• Historical shift : From the large-scale cliff-like unlocks in 2024 (such as 12.7567 million coins in April and 9.2531 million coins in October) to a stable monthly unlock pattern of 652,500 coins starting in May 2025.

Supply impact assessment :

• The January unlock only increases supply by 0.24% , with minimal dilution pressure.
• The current circulation rate is 99.5% , close to full unlocking, limiting future selling pressure.
• Next major unlock: February 6, 2026, cliff release of staking rewards pool (size to be confirmed).

New futures trading launch

Launch Timeline

Key observations :

• New Launch Impact : On the day Hyperliquid launched (January 18th), the price of AXS surged 54.2% to $2.13, closely coinciding with the launch date.
• Market reaction : Trading was active after launch, with the highest notional value of a single trade on the Hyperliquid AXS/USDC trading pair reaching $2,716.
• Liquidity Distribution : Major exchanges (Binance/Bybit/OKX) have supported AXS perpetual bonds since 2021. The newly added platforms are small to medium-sized decentralized derivatives protocols.

Price and Derivatives Market Impact

Price trend

Three days of dramatic price fluctuations :

Key metrics for derivatives

Open Interest :

• Total open interest: $111.17M , down 20.02% in the last 24 hours, indicating deleveraging after the surge.
• By exchange: Binance leads with $30.75M (-18.38%), remaining stable in the short term (1-hour +0.5%, 4-hour -4.42%).

Funding Rate :

• Mean: -0.13% (Binance -0.127%, Bybit -0.155%, OKX -0.138%)
• Interpretation : Negative rates mean that short sellers are paying long positions, reflecting bullish sentiment in perpetual contracts and providing incentives for spot-perpetual arbitrage.

Liquidation data :

• Total liquidation in 24 hours: $4.5 million , with long positions at $2.23 million and short positions at $2.27 million, a relatively balanced total.
• Risk Map: Below $1.52, there is a cumulative long position liquidation risk of $3.82 million; above $1.91, there is a short position risk of $7.53 million.

Technical characteristics

Trends and Momentum :

• Daily chart: Strong uptrend, price above SMA50 ($1.017) and SMA200 ($1.788), RSI 69.51 (approaching overbought).
• 4-hour chart: Bullish, price above EMA12 ($1.792), ADX high at 52.03 (extremely strong trend).
• 1-hour chart: Neutral consolidation, RSI 39.19, price near the lower Bollinger Band at $1.687.

Key price level :

• Support : $1.70 (clearing cluster with over $360,000 long positions, close to the lower Bollinger Band on the 1-hour chart), secondary support: $1.60 (cumulative over $3.41 million long positions at risk).
• Resistance : $1.80 (short-term liquidation of $170,000), extension at $1.91 (cumulative short position risk of $7.53 million).

On-chain supply dynamics

Holder distribution (stable and concentrated)

• Concentration : The top three holders control approximately 79% of the total supply, and the top 25 cover 95%.
• Stability : No significant changes were observed in the distribution pattern over the past 30 days.

Recent Fund Flows (December 20 - January 19)

Exchange net flow :

• Overall trend: Net outflows occurred in 18 out of 30 days, with a cumulative net outflow of approximately -360,000 AXS.
• Significant outflows: January 18 - 1.4887 million coins, January 17 - 1.0706 million coins, January 16 - 854,800 coins, indicating large amounts of cashing out to off-chain holdings.
• Significant inflows: +2.1019 million coins on January 14th and +851,800 coins on January 15th, possibly from unlocking and release or selling.

Changes in exchange reserves :

• Starting date (December 20): 6,461,800 AXS → Ending date (January 19): 6,099,000 AXS
• Net decrease : 362,800 AXS (-5.6%), tightening liquidity may boost prices.
• Volatility characteristics: After peaking at 9.5132 million AXS on January 15th, it rapidly declined by 36%, reflecting volatile buying and selling.

Unlock related transfers :

• The known balance of the attribution contract (0x65919...) was 0 AXS on both December 20th and January 19th, with no new transfers.
• Daily staking rewards(~21,757 tokens/day) are distributed through the protocol contract, and no on-chain evidence was found of large amounts being directly transferred to exchanges.
• The cumulative unlocking over 30 days was approximately 652,700 AXS , which partially offset the net outflow (-360,000), minimizing the impact on circulating supply.

Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis

Cash-and-Carry arbitrage

Core logic :

• Negative funding rate environment : Short sellers pay long sellers an average of -0.13% per hour. Holding a long spot position + a short perpetual position allows you to earn funding fee income.
• Futures-spot price spread : Futures $1.704 vs spot $1.724, basis discount $0.02
• Feasibility : This strategy is valid when the basis is less than 0.5% and transaction costs are less than funding rate returns. Monitoring of settlement changes over one hour is required.

Strategy framework :

Practical precautions :

• Newly launched platforms (Hyperliquid/Orderly) have lower liquidity than mainstream exchanges; slippage risk needs to be assessed.
• Funding rates are settled hourly, and continuous monitoring of the shift in bullish and bearish forces is necessary.
• Currently, OI (Online Investment Index) is down 20% and negative rates coexist, indicating the market is in a deleveraging phase, and the arbitrage window may be short-lived.

Event arbitrage (theoretical level)

Limited opportunities :

• The amount unlocked on January 7th was only 0.24% of the total supply, and it was a cumulative, linear release over time, with no cliff-like selling pressure.
• On-chain data does not show a large influx of unlocked tokens into exchanges, and actual selling pressure has not materialized.
• The next major unlock (February 6th) may provide a new trading window, but its size and impact remain to be seen.

Low level of social discussion :

• No high-quality tweets discussing arbitrage strategies related to AXS unlocking or new listings were found (search results as of January 19).
• Market attention is focused more on fundamental improvements in the ecosystem (bAXS staking, SLP issuance suspension, 2026 roadmap) than on technical arbitrage.

Social Emotions and Market Narratives

mainstream view

Bullish narrative :

• @ysiu (Animoca Brands Ecosystem): Emphasizing the increased momentum of AXS within the Animoca ecosystem, with a surge in trading volume, the gaming token market in 2026 is worth looking forward to.
• @web3_shadowking : Attributing the surge to the cessation of SLP emissions, bAXS game reward binding, and the 2026 roadmap, this round of price increases "feels different" from previous cycles.

Bearish view :

• @AltcoinSherpa : A short-term pullback to the $1.66 area is expected, although a rebound is acknowledged, the overall stance is cautious.

Fundamental Focus :

• bAXS Mechanism : The AXS token is pegged 1:1 to the core token, aiming to lock in value within the ecosystem and reduce selling pressure.
• Staking Reform : Rewards will decrease by 5% every 9 days; starting in January 2026, snapshot airdrops will be implemented for users with high Axie Score.
• Supply Tightening : SLP rewards suspended on January 7th, tightening token economics.

Arbitrage discussion lacks

• The search did not find any tweets that met the quality standards discussing the launch of new futures contracts or the unlocking of related arbitrage opportunities.
• The only observation is that the trading volume of AXS on the South Korean exchange Upbit surpasses that of XRP and BTC, but no strategic analysis is provided.
• Overall social media engagement leans towards long-term holding and ecosystem participation, rather than short-term trading techniques.

in conclusion

Fueled by the unlocking of 652,500 AXS tokens in January (representing 0.24% of the total supply) and the launch of new futures on Hyperliquid/Orderly, the price of AXS surged 51% from $1.31 to $1.98 before retreating to $1.72. The derivatives market exhibited negative funding rates (-0.13% average) and a futures-spot discount ($0.02), theoretically providing opportunities for spot-perpetual arbitrage. However, social media discussion was far less enthusiastic than expected, focusing more on ecosystem improvements such as the discontinuation of bAXS and SLP issuance. On-chain data shows a net decrease of 5.6% in exchange reserves to 6.1 million AXS, indicating that unlocked tokens did not flow into exchanges in large quantities, resulting in limited actual selling pressure. Technically, the daily chart shows strength (RSI 69.51, nearing overbought levels), with key support at $1.70 and resistance at $1.80-$1.91. Currently, we are in a deleveraging phase (OI -20%). Arbitrage opportunities exist, but we need to closely monitor changes in funding rates and liquidity. The next unlock on February 6 may provide new trading opportunities.