Silver surges 54%, crushing Bitcoin! With gold soaring, is BTC only temporarily lagging behind?
Execution Summary
Bitcoin rose only 1.5% in the past month (December 29, 2025 to January 29, 2026), from $87,823 to $89,162, significantly lagging behind silver's 54% surge and gold's breakthrough of a new all-time high of $5,000. This performance difference is mainly due to the rotation of global liquidity towards safe-haven precious metals , rather than any structural weakness in Bitcoin itself. On-chain data shows that BTC is in a healthy accumulation phase (MVRV 1.59 is within a fair valuation range), and technically it has found strong support at $85,000. Furthermore, several authoritative analysts predict that after the precious metals craze subsides, funds will flow back into the crypto market, and Bitcoin is expected to see a significant rebound.
Price performance comparison analysis
Significant differences in monthly performance.
| assets | Starting price | Current price | Monthly increase | Performance Evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $87,823 | $89,162 | +1.5% | Clearly lagging behind |
| Silver (XAG) | - | - | +54% | unusually strong |
| Gold (XAU) | - | ~$5,180 | Reaching a new high | King of Risk Aversion |
Data source: CoinGecko, December 29, 2025 to January 29, 2026; precious metals data sourced from comprehensive news reports.
Key finding : Bitcoin's 1.5% gain stands in stark contrast to the frenzied performance of precious metals, indicating that silver's 54% monthly gain truly "outshines" Bitcoin's traditional performance.
In-depth analysis of the reasons for Bitcoin's decline
Liquidity rotation: the attraction of funds to safe-haven assets
The market is currently in a typical risk-averse cycle . Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty are driving investors to massively shift towards traditional safe-haven assets.
- Gold broke through the $5,000 record high, with a single-day increase of $170, setting a new record .
- Silver prices fluctuated wildly : a single-day market capitalization swing of nearly $2 trillion indicates a massive influx of funds into X.
- US government shutdown risk : Polymarket predicts a 78% probability of a shutdown before January 31, exacerbating safe-haven demand for BeInCrypto.
Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee explicitly stated, " As long as gold and silver continue to rise, there will be FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment driving people to buy precious metals rather than cryptocurrencies ," accordingto Bitcoin.com . This mechanical liquidity allocation mechanism is temporarily suppressing the performance of cryptocurrencies.
Market Structure Analysis: BTC has not shown structural weakness.
Despite its lagging price performance, Bitcoin's on-chain fundamentals remain healthy:
On-chain valuation metrics (as of January 28, 2026):
- MVRV ratio: 1.59 - within the fair valuation range (1.0-2.4), far from reaching bubble levels (>3.7).
- Target price: $55,990 - Significantly lower than the current price, indicating that the overall position is in a profitable state.
- SOPR ratio: ≈1.0 - near the break-even point, with no pressure for large-scale profit-taking.
- NVT ratio: 27.27 - indicating that the network value is underestimated.
Technical indicator analysis (2026-01-29 01:52 UTC):
- RSI Neutral : 1h/4h/1d RSI in the 41-47 range, no overbought or oversold conditions.
- Key support : The lower Bollinger Band at $85,377 provides strong support.
- Moving average position : The current price of $88,602 is below the SMA20 ($91,311) but above the realized price, indicating a medium-term correction rather than a bear market.
Derivatives Market Balance :
- Open interest of $119.4 billion indicates extremely high market activity.
- Funding rate : 0.46%, which is within the neutral range and indicates no excessive leverage.
- Liquidation ratio : Multiple liquidations accounted for 65%, but the overall liquidation scale was relatively small ($67.75 million).
Sustainability Analysis of the Precious Metals Craze
Driving factors behind the surge in silver and gold prices
- Structural supply shortage : Silver faces a five-year supply deficit as retail demand surges in China and India (Citi).
- Geopolitical safe haven : Global uncertainty drives central banks and institutions to increase gold holdings
- Speculative influx : Silver's market capitalization fluctuated by $2 trillion in a single day, indicating the participation of a large amount of speculative capital.
Experts' warnings on precious metal trends
Several analysts have issued warnings about the current precious metals boom:
- Chris Vermeulen : Precious metals may repeat the 2008 trend, with a 30-60% pullback . Bitcoin.com
- Citi Bank : Raises silver price target to $150, but warns $300 is "extremely unlikely" (Bitcoin.com )
Bitcoin's rebound potential and rotation timing
Historical cycle patterns support rotation expectations
Historical data shows a clear pattern of asset rotation:
| period | Gold performance | Bitcoin performance | Market Environment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 Q3-Q4 | +9.2% | +295% | Crypto bull market |
| 2020 Q1-Q2 | +17% | +42% | Uncertainty of the pandemic |
| 2024 Q1-Q2 | +22% | +18% | Peak of inflation concerns |
Tom Lee asserts, based on historical patterns, that " when gold and silver pause their upward trend, it often triggers a subsequent surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum ." (AMB Crypto )
Technical factors support the rebound argument
As can be seen from Bitcoin's monthly price trend:
- Solid support : Rebound after multiple tests of the $85,000 range
- Signs of accumulation : Wallets holding 1k-100k BTC are continuously increasing their holdings, and small holders (0-1 BTC) are also accumulating.
- Volatility compression : Recent trading range has narrowed, brewing momentum for a breakout.
Potential catalysts
- Precious metals pullback : Silver has pulled back from $116 to $103 (-11%), indicating a rotation has begun. (Coinpedia)
- Federal Reserve Policy : A Weak Dollar Environment Ultimately Benefits Cryptocurrencies
- Institutional Behavior : Bitmine and other institutions have pledged a large amount of ETH (52% of their holdings), demonstrating long-term confidence.
Risk Factor Assessment
| Risk factors | Severity | Impact Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Precious metals continue to be strong | medium | This could extend the time BTC's performance lags. |
| Leveraged liquidation cascade | medium | Long positions are too high in the derivatives market |
| Global risks worsen | high | This could further fuel risk aversion. |
| Technical breakdown | medium | A break below the 85,000 support level could trigger panic. |
Conclusion: Bitcoin is only temporarily lagging behind; a rotation is imminent.
Bitcoin's current underperformance is not due to structural weakness, but rather a temporary phenomenon resulting from a global liquidity rotation towards precious metals as a safe haven . On-chain data confirms that BTC is in a healthy accumulation phase, with strong technical support at $85,000. Historical cycle patterns suggest that funds will flow back into cryptocurrencies after the precious metals craze subsides.
Key signal identification :
- 🟢Chain Health : MVRV at 1.59 is a fair valuation with no bubble risk.
- 🟢Continuous accumulation : Both large and small wallets are increasing their holdings, with no panic selling.
- 🟡Technical Neutral : Short-term weakness but key support levels remain intact
- 🟢Expert consensus : Tom Lee and other analysts predict a rotational rebound
Investment advice : For current Bitcoin holders, there's no need to panic due to short-term underperformance. Instead, pay attention to pullback signals in the precious metals market, as this could be a harbinger of funds flowing back into the crypto market. Historical data shows that similar asset rotations often lead to significant Bitcoin rebound opportunities.
Bitcoin's "falling behind" is only a temporary phenomenon in liquidity allocation. Once risk aversion eases and funds return to their rotation, Bitcoin is likely to replicate the strong performance seen after the historical precious metal boom.