Gold and silver rallied, and Bitcoin rebounded to $78,000: finally following the upward trend this time?

TL;DR : Bitcoin has indeed recently followed the rebound trend of gold and silver, with the price recovering from a low of $75,700 to $78,627 (24-hour increase of +1.94%). Interactive Brokers data shows that BTC and gold have a highly correlated return over the past two years, and are currently showing a similar trend. The short-term rebound is driven by macro sentiment and precious metals, but its sustainability depends on Fed policy, improved liquidity, and the progress of resolving the government shutdown. Risks include hawkish monetary policy expectations and market volatility.

Key metrics comparison: CoinGecko, Odaily, Odaily

Note: PAXG is the gold token, and AG is the silver token, acting as a spot agent; the rebound trend of spot gold and silver prices is inferred from news reports. Data timestamp: 2026-02-03 02:20 UTC.

Analysis: Why did Bitcoin follow suit this time?

1. Convergence Trend Confirmed by Interactive Brokers

In an analysis published on February 1st, Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, pointed out that Bitcoin and gold returns have been highly correlated over the past two years, differing by only a few percentage points, and are now showing a convergence again . This indicates that the correlation between BTC and precious metals is strengthening amidst macroeconomic uncertainty, rather than exhibiting independent fluctuations. (Odaily News)

• Background : Gold and silver experienced a sharp drop on January 29th (gold fell from $5,600 to $4,740, a maximum drop of 15.7%; silver fell from $120 to $76.6, a maximum drop of 37%), followed by a rebound between January 31st and February 2nd. Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $75,700 to $78,627 during the same period, showing a clear correlation.
• Market Mechanism : Funds rotate between safe-haven assets (gold) and risk assets (Bitcoin). Bitwise Europe data shows that the price ratio of Bitcoin to gold has fallen to a historic low, which some analysts see as a potential investment opportunity, anticipating a possible phase of capital flowing back from gold to BTC starting in February.

2. Signals of Improved Macroeconomic Sentiment and Liquidity

• Government shutdown progress : US House Speaker Johnson expressed confidence that the partial government shutdown could be ended by February 3 ( Odaily News ). Resolving the shutdown could release liquidity and alleviate market pressure.
• Federal Reserve Policy Expectations : Despite Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair (with hawkish leanings), analysts believe actual policy will depend on the overall consensus of the FOMC, rather than individual decisions. CME data shows an 84.7% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in March, indicating that expectations of a rate cut have been delayed but not eliminated. (Odaily News)

3. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

• Bottom Repair Signals : Social media discussions (such as Twitter user @honest_xi) focus on "natural bottom formation," pointing to the rebound in gold and silver driving a technical repair in BTC. The 4-hour chart shows BTC repeatedly testing the $79,100 resistance level; a breakout could trigger a larger rebound. Twitter Search
• Derivatives liquidation eases : $2.522 billion in liquidations occurred in the past 24 hours (dominated by long positions), but liquidation pressure has eased as the market gradually absorbs selling pressure. (Odaily News)

Risks and Outlook

Risk factors

• The risk of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve : If Kevin Warsh officially takes office and pushes for tightening policies (such as reducing the balance sheet), it could compress liquidity and suppress a Bitcoin rebound. The dispute between Trump and Powell could also delay the confirmation process. (Odaily News)
• Precious metal volatility : Silver has recently been similar to a "meme stock" (as described by Interactive Brokers), with wild fluctuations (a single-day drop of up to 37%). If gold and silver plummet again, it could drag down BTC.
• Structural weaknesses : The crypto market is still in the final stages of a deleveraging cycle, retail investor sentiment is easily manipulated (e.g., exchange API anomalies triggering chain liquidations), and insufficient new capital may limit the extent of any rebound. (Odaily News)

Outlook

• Short term (1-2 weeks) : The sustainability of the rebound depends on the liquidity injection following the resolution of the government shutdown. If BTC breaks through the $81,000 resistance level, it may test the $85,000 range.
• In the medium to long term : an improved macroeconomic environment (expectations of interest rate cuts, growth in AI productivity) may support the BTC value store narrative. However, we must be wary of the "curse of falling but not rising"—the crypto market is at the end of the asset chain and is susceptible to contagion from fluctuations in traditional markets.

in conclusion

Yes, Bitcoin finally rallied this time , but this is a short-term, synchronized rebound driven by macroeconomic sentiment, rather than a fundamental trend reversal. Evidence includes:

• Price data synchronization: BTC and gold/silver have the same 24-hour gains (+1.94% vs +4.09%/+4.49%).
• Institutional analysis confirms: Interactive Brokers directly points out that a convergent trend has reappeared.
• Market sentiment is recovering: Bottom discussions and liquidation eased support the rebound narrative.

However, investors should remain cautious: the sustainability of the rally depends on improved external liquidity , not on intrinsic crypto momentum. If the Federal Reserve policy turns hawkish or gold and silver crash again, BTC could decouple again. It is recommended to monitor the progress of the government shutdown, the Federal Reserve hearings, and the White House stablecoin legislative meeting (February 5th), as these will be the next key catalysts. (Odaily News)

Data limitations: Silver data comes from AG tokens rather than direct spot prices, which may slightly inaccurate; gold spot prices rely on news inferences. However, multi-source cross-validation (CoinGecko, Odaily, Twitter) supports the overall conclusions.