Analysis of Binance's over $700 million Bitcoin buy the dips: Has the bottom been confirmed?

Execution Summary

Binance SAFU did indeed purchase a total of 10,455 BTC between February 2nd and 9th, worth approximately $741 million , consistent with the claim of "buying 10,000 Bitcoins for over $700 million." This action was fully verified through official announcements and on-chain data, demonstrating the exchange's proactive market support during the downturn.

However, the bottom for Bitcoin has not yet been fully confirmed . Despite institutional buying providing support, continued net outflows from exchanges, near-term mining machine shutdown prices, extremely low market fear index, and multiple analytical models projecting a neutral bottom in the $37,000-$44,000 range indicate that the current rebound near $70,000 still faces challenges.

Binance SAFU Fund Purchase Details Verification

Official purchase records and on-chain evidence

According to Binance's official Twitter announcement and on-chain data monitoring, the SAFU Fund purchased Bitcoin in four batches between February 2nd and 9th, 2026:

Total holdings : 10,455 BTC ≈ $741 million (based on the current price of $70,842) (Binance official )

Wallet address : 1BAuq7Vho2CEkVkUxbfU26LhwQjbCmWQkD (Publicly verifiable)

Buying Strategy : In accordance with the plan announced on January 30, the $1 billion SAFU fund will be converted from stablecoins to Bitcoin within 30 days. If the total value of the fund is less than $800 million, we will continue to buy more.

Data reliability assessment

• Consistency : Official announcements, on-chain data, and third-party monitoring (Lookonchain) are completely consistent.
• Transparency : All transactions provide a TXID, and wallet addresses are public.
• Conflict-free : Multiple independent sources verify the same fact
• Data freshness : The latest data is as of February 9, 2026, with high real-time performance.

Analysis of the Current Status of the Bitcoin Market

Price trend (January-February 2026)

Key price points :

• All-time high in October 2025: $126,000
• January 2026 high: $94,926 (January 6)
• February 2026 low: $62,500 (February 6)
• Current price: $70,842 (February 9)
• Cumulative decline : 52% down from the high of $126,000 (TechFlow TechFlow)

Exchange Fund Flow Trends

Key findings :

• Net outflow dominated : A total of 19,901 BTC were net outflowed from February 1st to 8th.
• Largest single-day outflow : February 6th, net outflow of 16,889 BTC (lowest price point).
• Recent Improvement : Net outflow narrowed to 3,973 BTC on February 8th.
• Overall trend : Continued net outflows from exchanges indicate that withdrawal demand exceeds deposits into CryptoQuant.

Multi-dimensional assessment of bottom confirmation signals

Positive signal (supports bottom formation)

1. Institutions continue to buy

   • Binance SAFU Fund: 10,455 BTC ($741 million)
   • Strategy: Bought 855 BTC ($75.3 million) on February 3, total holdings 713,502 BTC. (Odaily)
   • Bitfinex margin long positions: approximately 77,100 BTC, a new high in nearly two years (Odaily)

2. Behavioral differentiation of whale

   • A whale holding 100,000-10,000 BTC sold 81,068 BTC in 8 days (Odaily)
   • However, the holdings of "shrimp addresses" with less than 0.01 BTC reached a 20-month high, indicating retail investors buying on dips.

3. Technical support

   • The price briefly dipped below the psychological level of $60,000 before quickly recovering.
   • CME Bitcoin futures have a significant gap (84,445 → 77,385 USD), which has historically shown a tendency to be filled . (Odaily )

Risk signal (bottom not confirmed)

1. Miners are under immense pressure.

   • Some S21 series and Whatsminer miners have reached their shutdown price ($0.08/kWh). (Odaily )
   • Shenyu warns: When BTC drops to $75,000, 23.3W/T mining rigs will reach their shutdown price . (Odaily)

2. Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic.

   • The crypto market's fear and greed index has dropped to 9, entering the "extreme fear" range . (Odaily)
   • Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index shows a negative premium for 25 consecutive days, indicating a significant outflow of US funds (Odaily).

3. Macroeconomic pressures persist

   • The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 90.1% (Odaily)
   • Trump's tariff policies have sparked inflation concerns, and Treasury Secretary Bessant has admitted that the view that "tariffs push up inflation" is wrong . (Odaily)

Bottom Price Projection Analysis

Based on the historical pattern of decreasing declines in bear markets, DeepFlow TechFlow three possible scenarios:

Conclusion: The bottom has not yet been fully confirmed.

Binance's buy the dips action was genuine and effective : the SAFU fund cumulatively purchased 10,455 BTC worth $741 million, which was a transparent and open market intervention that provided important psychological support to the market.

However, there is insufficient evidence to confirm the bottom :

1. Continued net outflows from exchanges indicate that selling pressure remains.
2. Miners are facing pressure from shutdown prices, which could trigger a forced sell-off.
3. Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, with the fear-greed index at only 9 points.
4. Multiple analytical models predict a neutral bottom in the $35,000-$38,000 range.

Investment advice :

• Short term : The current rebound around $70,000 is fragile, and it is not advisable to blindly chase the rally.
• Medium term : Observe the support effect of the $37,000-$44,000 range.
• Long-term : Large-scale purchases by institutions such as Binance and Strategy demonstrate long-term confidence, but patience is needed to wait for a true bottom to form.

Key monitoring indicators :

• Bitcoin ETF fund flow changes
• Miner selling pressure (hash rate changes)
• Federal Reserve policy shift signals
• Will exchange reserves stop falling and start to rise?

Confirmation of a bottom requires more time and data. Binance's buy the dips behavior is a positive signal, but it is not enough to confirm the market bottom on its own.