BTC falls below $69,000 again: Is the rebound over?

Key findings

BTC is currently priced at $64,577, down 6.4% from $69,000, indicating that the rebound momentum has indeed stalled. Based on available data, the decline is mainly due to recent large investor selling, macroeconomic uncertainty, and continued capital outflows, rather than long-term holders taking profits. The key support level of $60,000 has become a watershed between bulls and bears; a break below this level could trigger a deeper correction.

Price trend analysis

BTC has been falling steadily from its high of $84,121 in early February 2026, closing at $64,577 on February 24th, a cumulative drop of 23.3%. Key recent milestones:

CoinGecko

Key observations :

• On February 6th, the stock price plummeted by 14.1% in a single day , hitting a low of $62,503, indicating a concentrated release of selling pressure.
• A brief rebound to $68,838 on February 14 : Failed to break through the $70,000 resistance level, the rebound lacked momentum.
• Current price: $64,577 ; down 6.4% from $69,000, near February lows.

This drop brought BTC back from its highs following the October 10, 2025 liquidation event, with buyers showing clear hesitation and a lack of strong relief-driven rebounds.

Analysis of the reasons for the decline

1. Large investors have recently been selling off, leading to significant selling pressure.

According to CryptoQuant analysis, 70.41% of the BTC currently deposited in exchanges comes from large investors (whales), but the key point is:

• Recent buyer sell-off of 138,000 BTC : This represents the vast majority of the inflow, as these investors bought at higher prices and then cut their losses.
• Long-term holders sold only 7,500 BTC : This indicates that core holdings remain intact, and the decline was not driven by profit-taking.
• Unrealized losses reach $26 billion : Losses could widen to $32 billion if prices fall to $60,000 (CryptoQuant analysis)

2. Increased macroeconomic pressure

• Global tariffs rise to 15% : Triggering a flight to risk assets, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets such as gold.
• ETPs See 5 Consecutive Weeks of Fund Outflows : A Total of $4 Billion Withdrawn, with a Net Outflow of $288 Million Last Week, the US Market Dominates Outflows (CoinShares Report)
• Investor sentiment is lukewarm : Polymarket predicts a 72% probability that BTC will fall below $55,000, reflecting pessimistic market expectations.

3. Technical analysis shows a break below key support levels.

• Downtrend line resistance : The 4-hour chart shows BTC trading below the downtrend line, with multiple attempts to rebound failing.
• Loss of $66,000 support : The decline accelerated after breaking below this level on February 23, reaching a low of $63,351.
• RSI shows oversold but weak : The short-term RSI has rebounded from its lows, but overall momentum remains bearish (TradingView analysis).

Market sentiment and investor behavior

Short-term holders are under pressure

Glassnode data shows that short-term holders (recent buyers) are currently experiencing deep losses, with the red zone indicating a phase of loss-making selling. Historically, this condition often coincides with local bottoms or late-stage corrections, suggesting that selling pressure may be gradually exhausting.

Leveraged liquidation exacerbates volatility

• February 23rd Single-Day Liquidation : $211 Million in BTC Long Positions Liquidated, Exacerbating the Price Decline.
• Liquidity clusters attract prices : Derivatives data shows that the upper liquidation concentration zone is at $68,000-$70,000, and the lower zone is at $60,000-$62,000, with prices tending to move towards these levels.

Risk assessment and critical levels

Support and resistance levels

Risk factors

Has the rebound ended?

Based on the available data, the current rebound has indeed encountered resistance, but it has not yet been confirmed that it has completely ended. The reasons are as follows:

1. Insufficient rebound momentum : The rebound to $68,838 on February 14th failed to hold, indicating weak buying power.
2. Structural selling pressure persists : Large investor sell-offs and ETP outflows continue to exert downward pressure.
3. Key technical level breached : Support at $66,000 broken, trend weakens.

However, it is too early to say that the rebound is over :

• Long-term holders did not engage in large-scale selling : core holdings remained stable, and the decline was mainly driven by short-term behavior.
• Historical oversold areas : Similar conditions often indicate a local bottom rather than a continued collapse.
• Key support at $60,000 : If this level holds, a bottom may be forming and a rebound may be brewing.

Outlook and Operational Recommendations

Short-term scenario analysis

Investor Strategy

• Conservative approach : Wait for a stabilization signal around $60,000 before considering entry, with a strict stop-loss at $58,000.
• Aggressive strategy : Consider a small long position in the current oversold area, with a target of 68,000 and a stop loss at 63,500.
• Long-term holding : There is no need to panic about core holdings, as the long-term fundamentals remain unchanged.

in conclusion

BTC's drop below $69,000 does indicate that the recent rebound has stalled, but it's not entirely over yet. The decline is primarily driven by short-term factors: macroeconomic pressures, recent stop-loss orders, and capital outflows. The key is whether the $60,000 support level can hold—holding it could form a bottom, while a break below could trigger a deeper correction to the $55,000 area.

The market is in a sensitive phase. We recommend closely monitoring the impact of this week's US economic events (Federal Reserve speeches, PPI data) on macroeconomic sentiment, as well as the battle for the $60,000 level. A genuine restart of the rebound requires a break above $69,600 accompanied by improved capital inflows.