The “AI doomsday” report has triggered market panic: Will stocks and Bitcoin face a larger crash?
Executive Summary : According to the latest data (as of 07:12 UTC on February 25, 2026), Citrini Research's "2028 Smart Crisis" report did indeed trigger market panic, causing US stocks (such as the S&P 500 to fall by more than 1% and the Nasdaq to fall by 1.13%) and Bitcoin (BTC) prices to test the $64,000 support level. This panic was reflected in the Fear & Greed Index of 10 (extreme fear). However, through a comprehensive analysis of technical indicators, on-chain valuations, and derivatives data, short-term panic may persist, but the probability of a larger crash is low. Historical patterns show that extreme fear often foreshadows the start of a rebound, and the current undervaluation signals for BTC (such as NVT 20.3) and short-selling dominance (long/short ratio of 0.3) suggest solid support. The following report is based on multi-source cross-validated data synthesis; the data is fresh, consistent, and without major conflicts.
Market panic background
Citrini Research's "2028 Smart Crisis" report paints a picture of massive white-collar unemployment and economic collapse caused by AI, triggering market panic. Following the report's release on Monday, US stocks plummeted: the S&P 500 closed down over 1%, the software ETF fell over 4%, and tech stocks such as Microsoft fell 3.2% and Amazon fell 2.3%. Payment giants (such as Visa, down 4.6%, and Mastercard, down 5.7%) are impacted by the threats posed by AI and stablecoins, with transaction volume reaching $33 trillion (a 70% increase by 2025). PANews
On Tuesday, market sentiment improved, with the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounding. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 400 points, boosted by Anthropic's product launch emphasizing AI as a "partner, not a replacement," and AMD's stock price surged 14% driven by a $60-100 billion GPU order from Meta. However, the threat of tariffs from Trump (a 15% global tariff) and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve exacerbated uncertainty. (ChainCatcher)
Bitcoin was affected, falling 3.22% in the past 24 hours, testing the $64,000 support level, and the total crypto market capitalization dropped 2.4% to $2.31 trillion. The report emphasizes that historical data shows similar macroeconomic panics (such as the 2020 COVID crash) often mark the beginning of a BTC rebound, rather than a sustained collapse. (TradingView)
Key insights : The panic stemmed from the AI-induced unemployment narrative and tariff uncertainty, but Tuesday's rebound revealed the fragility of sentiment. Short-term stock market volatility may impact BTC, but BTC's scarcity (fixed supply of 21 million) and historical resilience provide a buffer.
Price performance analysis
Bitcoin's price fell from a high of $66,456 on February 19 to $64,074 on February 25, a cumulative drop of approximately 5%. Specific daily OHLC data shows:
| date | Opening price (USD) | Highest price (USD) | Lowest price (USD) | Closing price (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | 67,479 | 68,328 | 65,907 | 66,456 |
| 2026-02-20 | 66,437 | 67,206 | 65,734 | 66,919 |
| 2026-02-21 | 66,957 | 68,226 | 66,585 | 67,970 |
| 2026-02-22 | 68,001 | 68,637 | 67,585 | 67,978 |
| 2026-02-23 | 67,979 | 68,212 | 67,247 | 67,585 |
| 2026-02-24 | 67,635 | 67,635 | 63,963 | 64,578 |
| 2026-02-25 | 64,646 | 64,947 | 62,803 | 64,074 |
The current price is around $65,080, approaching the lower Bollinger Band at $64,206 (daily chart), which is typically a support level. In the stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.66% and the S&P 500 fell 1.04%, reflecting AI fears and tariff risks, but tech stocks (such as NVIDIA, which rose 0.91%) showed divergence. (CoinGecko )
Analysis and reasoning : The price pullback stemmed from panic selling, but the accumulation of over 400,000 BTC around $64,000 (Glassnode data), coupled with a positive Coinbase premium index (0.0159%), suggests that US institutions may be entering the market at lower levels. This aligns with historical patterns: after a similar panic in 2020, BTC rebounded from $4,400 to $42,000.
Technical indicator analysis
Technical indicators suggest BTC is oversold in the short term but shows signs of a rebound. The current price is $65,080, with the daily RSI at 34.18 (close to oversold territory <30), and the MACD histogram turning positive (value -3,771, signal -4,156, historical 385), hinting at improving momentum. The lower Bollinger Band at $64,206 provides support, and the ADX of 58 indicates a strong trend, but prices approaching the lower band often foreshadow a reversal.
Technical indicators across timeframes (TAAPI)
| index | 1-hour frame | 4-hour frame | Daily chart framework |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 56.31 (Neutral) | 45.90 (Weak) | 34.18 (close to oversold) |
| MACD | Value: 249, Signal: 139, Historical: 110 (Bullish) | Value: -810, Signal: -854, History: 45 (Neutral to Positive) | Value: -3,771, Signal: -4,156, History: 385 (Momentum Improvement) |
| SMA (20) | 64,453 | 65,584 | 67,867 |
| EMA (20) | 64,677 | 65,334 | 69,104 |
| Bollinger Bands (20,2) | Top: 66,079, Middle: 64,453, Bottom: 62,827 | Top: 68,935, Middle: 65,584, Bottom: 62,234 | Top: 71,528, Middle: 67,867, Bottom: 64,206 |
| Stochastic (14) | K: 46.48, D: 54.59 (Neutral) | K: 44.73, D: 37.89 (Weak) | K: 19.81, D: 24.33 (Oversold) |
| ADX (14) | 24.35 (Moderate trend) | 28.05 (Moderate trend) | 58.05 (Strong Trend) |
| ATR (14) | 582 (Moderate fluctuation) | 1,115 (Moderate fluctuation) | 3,061 (High volatility) |
Analysis and reasoning : Historically, oversold signals on the daily chart (such as RSI < 35 and Stochastic K < 20) have often been accompanied by rebounds. Combined with the 4-hour MACD turning positive, a test of $75,000 is possible in the short term (TradingView analysis). However, a high ADX indicates that if $64,000 is broken, a rapid decline to $55,000 is possible.
On-Chain and Derivatives Indicators
The on-chain indicator suggests that BTC is undervalued and in a capitalization phase, supporting the argument for a rebound.
CryptoQuant, a Bitcoin market indicator
| index | value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV | 1.173 | Fairness value |
| NUPL | 0.148 | Hope stage |
| NVT | 20.3 | underestimate |
| SOPR | 0.978 | Capitulation |
| Realized Price | 54,629 | Support/Resistance |
Derivatives data shows a market neutral to bullish bias: total open interest is $86.7 billion (highly active), average funding rate is 0.0975% (neutral), and 24-hour liquidation is $140 million (31.8 million longs, $108 million shorts, long-short ratio of 0.3, indicating a short squeeze). Coinglass
Fear & Greed Index Trend : Currently at 10 (Extreme Fear), and has remained stable in the extreme fear zone for 7 days. Historical data shows that this level (similar to the 2020 COVID-19 situation) often signals a bottom.
Analysis and reasoning : The undervaluation of NVT and SOPR<1 indicate that holders are selling at a loss, but the dominance of short liquidation suggests that selling pressure is weakening. Combined with professional traders turning net long in CME futures (CFTC data), the panic may have peaked, rather than being a harbinger of a larger crash.
Risk Assessment and Outlook
Probability of a larger crash : Low to moderate. Short-term panic may persist (affected by NVIDIA's earnings and tariffs), but data does not support a sustained collapse: BTC support at $64,000 is solid, and historical extreme fears foreshadow a rebound (e.g., BTC's 38% rise after the 2025 tariff war). Stock market risks (such as AI debt concerns) may have repercussions, but BTC's scarcity and institutional accumulation (Robert Kiyosaki's purchase at $67,000) provide a buffer. If $60,000 is broken, Glassnode's model predicts a potential bottom at $44,000, but current signals favor a rebound to $75,000.
Scenario Analysis :
| scene | Price target (BTC) | probability | Key drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| bull market rebound | 75,000-80,000 | 55% | Panic subsides, institutional buying begins, MACD turns positive. |
| The fundamentals remain stable | 60,000-70,000 | 30% | Neutral funding rates support stability |
| bear market crash | 45,000-55,000 | 15% | Breaking $64,000, macroeconomic deterioration |
Data limitations : The analysis is based on data up to February 25th, and the dynamics may change as NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday; ETH data is limited and only funding rate is neutral.
in conclusion
The "AI doomsday" report did amplify panic and cause a short-term drop, but overall indicators suggest this is more of a capitulation than the start of a larger crash. BTC's undervaluation and short squeeze signals suggest potential for a rebound, and investors should monitor the $64,000 support level. In the long term, similar events tend to reinforce BTC's status as a hedging asset; therefore, it is advisable to assess buying opportunities during periods of extreme fear rather than panic selling.