Bitcoin bucks the trend and rebounds, nearing $70,000: A rapid return to bull market warrants caution.
Bitcoin has recently shown a strong V-shaped rebound, reaching a high of $69,850 on March 3rd, briefly approaching the $70,000 mark , with a 24-hour increase of up to 6.1%. The current price is approximately $68,300 (as of 08:59 UTC on March 4th, 2026). This surge occurred amidst macroeconomic headwinds such as escalating US-Iran conflict and soaring global oil prices, with market sentiment shifting from panic to recovery. However, it has not yet stabilized above $70,000, and the signal for a full bull market return remains unclear . Data shows that this rebound stems from multiple catalysts: the dissipation of the Jane Street "10 AM sell-off" controversy, the resumption of net inflows into ETFs, better-than-expected earnings reports from Circle and Nvidia, and unusual activity in mining companies. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate between $62,500 and $72,300 , and shorting on short remains the mainstream strategy.
Detailed analysis of price movement: V-shaped rebound but limited momentum.
Over the past week (February 26 to March 4, 2026), BTC rebounded from a low of $64,000, accumulating a gain of approximately 6.7% (higher than the low of $65,224 on February 28). Highs were frequently seen on March 3 ($69,850) and February 26 ($69,486), but closing prices mostly fell back to the $67,000-$68,000 range, indicating insufficient bullish momentum and potential for a bearish counterattack at the central resistance level.
Daily OHLC data CoinGecko
| Date (UTC) | Opening price | highest price | Lowest price | closing price | 24-hour changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 64,065.9 | 69,486.9 | 63,966.9 | 67,947.4 | +6.1% |
| 2026-02-27 | 67,954.6 | 68,781.1 | 66,641.6 | 67,469.1 | -0.7% |
| 2026-02-28 | 67,461.3 | 68,115.8 | 65,224.5 | 65,884 | -2.4% |
| 2026-03-01 | 65,878.8 | 67,512 | 63,176.9 | 67,008.5 | +1.7% |
| 2026-03-02 | 66,995.2 | 68,043.9 | 65,149.1 | 65,713.5 | -2.0% |
| 2026-03-03 | 65,736.2 | 69,850.8 | 65,380.4 | 68,864 | +4.8% |
| 2026-03-04* | 68,810.7 | 69,151.1 | 66,336.8 | 68,321.6 | -0.8% |
*Note: Data for March 4th is current time (08:59 UTC), not the closing price for the day. Data source: CoinGecko, precisely matched to the original OHLC value. Key extreme values are highlighted to reflect the rebound rhythm: a pullback after the early week high, followed by an unsuccessful attempt to break through 70,000 mid-week.
Trend Analysis : From a weekly perspective, BTC remains in a medium-term downtrend (momentum line trending downwards, no divergence yet). The daily chart shows a continuation of the oversold rebound, but the positive momentum bars are disordered, making it difficult to form a trend reversal. Odaily reports that the daily rebound is limited by the upper boundary of the $72,300 consolidation range. A break below the $62,500 support level may end the C-2 wave correction and usher in the C-3 adjustment. Over the past 24 hours, $579 million in positions were liquidated, primarily short positions ($464 million), strengthening short-term bullish momentum. However, among the top 10 traded by volume, BTC only saw a slight decrease of 1.15%, indicating no significant increase in liquidity. Odaily
Rebound Drivers: Events Combined to Restore Market Confidence
This round of counter-trend rise is not isolated, but rather a result of multiple factors:
The mystery surrounding Jane Street's "10 AM sell-off" has dissipated : A lawsuit filed by Terraform Labs has revealed that Jane Street allegedly used insider trading and algorithms to manipulate BTC (a daily 2-3% drop at 10 AM EST). This manipulation was disrupted after the incident, and the market viewed it as positive. BTC's V-shaped rebound points directly to the "at least $150,000" narrative, providing a short-term emotional outlet. (Odaily)
ETF net inflows resumed : Yesterday, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $250 million, ending five weeks of outflows; BlackRock's IBIT saw a 5-hour inflow of 1225 BTC ($83.92 million). Institutional allocations are shifting, with Harvard and Brown Universities increasing their ETF holdings. (Odaily)
Earnings catalysts : Circle's Q4 revenue reached $770 million (+77%), with USDC circulation rebounding; Nvidia's Q4 revenue reached $68.1 billion, confirming AI demand. Both alleviated concerns about stablecoins and an AI bubble. (Odaily )
Mining sector activity : TeraWulf shares rose 31% this month, Cipher Mining gained 8%, with energy cost advantages attracting hedge fund short covering. (Odaily)
Macroeconomic Background : Oil prices surged amid the US-Iran conflict, but BTC and US stocks (Nasdaq +1.26%) moved in tandem, with Polymarket's US-Iran contracts attracting $600 million, highlighting the hedging role of prediction markets. (Odaily )
These factors combined to push up prices, but news reports mostly emphasized "range-bound trading," with medium-term short positions yielding a profit of 26.10% (from 89k to 65.7k). (Odaily )
Risks and Support/Resistance Levels
Core range : Upward consolidation zone of $62,500-$72,300. (Odaily )
| pressure level | level | background |
|---|---|---|
| First pressure | 68,500-70,000 | Chip Concentration Area |
| Second pressure | 72,300-74,500 | Upper rail + last year's low |
| support level | level | background |
|---|---|---|
| First support | 65,000 | Early important position |
| Second support | 62,500 | The lower boundary of the central pivot is close to the low point in February. |
Risk points :
- Macroeconomic uncertainties : Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $85/barrel; Asian inflation is expected to rise by 0.7 percentage points, while GDP growth is projected to be dragged down by 0.5 percentage points. Goldman Sachs issues warning for emerging markets. (Odaily)
- Position structure : The rebound was driven by short covering, but the weekly chart is dominated by bears, and the momentum has weakened after the oversold correction.
- Data limitations : No real-time derivatives position/funding rate data, making it impossible to quantify leverage risk; news coverage extends to the morning of March 3-4, and unforeseen events may alter the landscape.
Outlook: Short-term volatility expected; bull market needs new catalysts.
Will the bull market return quickly? It's unlikely in the short term . The rebound has restored confidence but hasn't broken the medium-term downtrend structure. Similar to historical oversold rallies, this often ends with selling on rallies. Strategically, adhere to "short on rallies, buy low and sell high," paying attention to a break above 72,300 (C-2 continuation) or a breach of 62,500 (C-3 start). In the medium to long term, Odaily believes that continued ETF inflows + AI/predictive market demand for USDC may support levels above 68k, but macroeconomic variables such as the US-Iran conflict and Fed stimulus (2026 fiscal stimulus) will dominate. Position recommendation : Continue holding medium-term short positions (profit 26%+), and wait for a rebound at 65k support in the short term.
Data is based on 03-04 08:59 UTC. The market is constantly changing, so it is recommended to monitor for real-time updates.