BTC Uptrend Analysis: Can the Global Stock Market Rebound Continue?
Key takeaway : BTC has rebounded over 13% from its late February lows to $72,669.8 (closing price on March 5, 2026), a one-month high, aligning with the global stock market rebound. However, weak futures demand, significant profit-taking pressure, and the need to hold the $70,000 support level cast doubt on its short-term sustainability—neutral funding rates and rising "extreme fear" sentiment indicate fragile demand. If it holds above $70k, it may test $75k-$82k; otherwise, it may retrace to $65k-$66k. ( CoinGecko )
Global stock markets stabilizing (e.g., US stocks turning green, Trump's State of the Union address boosting sentiment) provided a tailwind for risk assets, but BTC futures failed to follow suit. Institutional funds appear to be shifting towards stocks/gold, suggesting the rebound is more of an accumulation-driven rather than a strong-driven phenomenon. Based on current data (as of 01:38 UTC on March 5, 2026), the short-term outlook is cautiously optimistic , and it remains to be seen whether the price closes above $70k today (March 5).
Price Trend Review
BTC rebounded from its low of $64,577 on February 24, reaching an intraday high of $73,953 on March 5, before closing at $72,669.8 (+6.2%), a new high since February 6. Over the past week (February 26 - March 5), it has accumulated a 13.5% gain, breaking out of its monthly downtrend, but trading volume has not increased significantly, indicating a "thin liquidity" characteristic in buying activity. (CoinGecko )
Key OHLC data recently (February 26, 2026 to March 5, 2026) - CoinGecko
| date | opening | Highest | lowest | Closing | Daily changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | $64,065 | $69,486 | $63,966 | $67,947 | +6.1% |
| 2026-02-27 | $67,954 | $68,781 | $66,641 | $67,469 | -0.7% |
| 2026-02-28 | $67,461 | $68,115 | $65,224 | $65,884 | -2.4% |
| 2026-03-01 | $65,878 | $67,512 | $63,176 | $67,008 | +1.7% |
| 2026-03-02 | $66,995 | $68,043 | $65,149 | $65,713 | -2.0% |
| 2026-03-03 | $65,736 | $69,850 | $65,380 | $68,864 | +4.8% |
| 2026-03-04 | $68,810 | $69,151 | $66,336 | $68,321 | -0.8% |
| 2026-03-05 | $68,292 | $73,953 | $67,514 | $72,669 | +6.4% |
Analysis : From March 3rd to 5th, three consecutive positive days broke through the $69k-$70k resistance level, resembling a "hammer candlestick + confirming positive green candle" pattern. However, profit-taking occurred multiple times near $69,400 (net realized profit/loss surged by more than $5 million per hour). If the price holds above $70k today, it can be considered a confirmation of the channel breakout; otherwise, it may be a "false breakout."
The Fear & Greed Index rose to 21 (extreme fear) , with a 7-day upward trend (from 5 to 21), suggesting a recovery in sentiment but still bearish – lower levels often indicate a rebound opportunity, but also reflect weak demand. (Coinglass)
Market Indicator Assessment
On-chain/derivative indicators are neutral to slightly bullish, but lack strong signals. MVRV (Fair Value), NUPL (Hope Zone), and NVT (Undervalued) support valuation recovery, while a 0% funding rate indicates a balance between bulls and bears (no leverage frenzy). ETH is similarly neutral. (CryptoQuant )
BTC Key Indicators (March 5, 2026) CryptoQuant
| index | value | Signal | meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV | 1.332 | Fair | Market capitalization/realized value fairness |
| NUPL | 0.2494 | Hope | Unrealized Profit and Loss Hope Zone |
| NVT | 20.9 | Undervalued | Network value/undervalued trading |
| Funding Rate | 0.0000% | Neutral | Perpetual Contract Neutral |
| Realized Price | $54,553 | Support | Support from holding costs |
| SOPR | 1.0023 | Profit-taking | Expenditure-to-profit ratio is slightly profitable |
Analysis : Overall indicators are "under repair," with NVT undervaluation suggesting long-term potential, but SOPR>1 indicates active short-term profit-taking. Futures OI fell 20% to $32 billion (lowest in the month), with weak demand for long positions, suggesting institutions may be shifting towards safe-haven assets like stocks and gold.
News and External Drivers
News focuses on the rebound milestone ($69k-$73k), but warns of a "sucker's rally" (bull trap). A global stock market rebound (US stocks in the red, ETF inflows turning positive at $257.7 million) provided a confluence, with Wall Street's stability and Trump's remarks boosting risk appetite. However, BTC futures demand is at its weakest since 2024, needing to absorb $70k in profit pressure. (Cointelegraph )
Key News Summary
| Date/Source | Key Points |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 Cointelegraph | BTC rose 8% to break $73k, but $70k needs to become support or it will fall back to $65k-66k; profit-taking needs to be absorbed. (Cointelegraph) |
| 2026-03-02 Coinness | Futures open interest (OI) is $32 (-20%), with institutions shifting towards stocks/gold. (Coinness) |
| 2026-03-04 CryptoDaily | The target for the breakout channel is $73k-$82k, but a Stoch RSI confirmation of >20 is required. (Cryptodaily ) |
| 2026-02-26 TradingView | ETF inflows turned positive, driven by spot buying (OI decreased, funding was negative). TradingView |
Analysis : The bullish narrative relies on the correlation between ETFs and the stock market, but Glassnode/Rekt Capital emphasizes that $68k-$70k (200-day EMA) is key; if it is breached, the downward channel will resume.
Risks and Outlook Scenario
Short-term continuation probability : 55% (base case), dependent on holding above $70k and continued strength in the stock market. Bear market signals: persistently low OI (Outcome Index) and a decline in the fear index.
| scene | probability | Price target (1-2 weeks) | Driving factors |
|---|---|---|---|
| long | 30% | $75k-$82k | ETF inflows continue, $70k support confirmed, Stoch > 20 |
| benchmark | 55% | $70k-$73k | Stock market tailwinds, profit absorption, neutral indicators |
| short selling | 15% | $65k-$66k | $70k breached, institutional outflows, profits surge |
Bullish logic : NVT undervaluation + rising fears indicate a continued rebound, similar to the historical channel breakout followed by a test of $81k-$84k (CME gap).
Short-selling risks : Low futures demand + short-term holding costs clustered below $70k (230,000 BTC) could easily trigger a sell-off; if global stock markets weaken, BTC beta could amplify its downward trend.
Data limitations : ETH metrics are incomplete, and there is no latest whale/on-chain streaming data; news is biased towards early March, and today's (March 5th) real-time dynamics are unknown—the conclusion is based on available data, and it is recommended to monitor the closing price of $70k.
Action Recommendation : Aggressive traders can go long around $70k, with a stop loss at $68k; conservative traders should wait for support confirmation at $65k-$66k. Global stock markets remain a key variable, and continued upward movement requires improvement in the "demand structure."