Analysis of the impact of Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on Bitcoin
On the evening of March 21, 2026, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the unconditional opening of the Strait of Hormuz, or he would strike and destroy all of Iran's power plants. This event directly triggered a global sell-off of risk assets. Bitcoin's price plummeted by more than 3% over the weekend, erasing all of last week's gains, and is currently hovering around $67,000. The plunge in Japanese and South Korean stock markets further amplified market panic, wiping out $55 billion in the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market, plunging it into a state of "extreme fear." The core impact lies in Bitcoin's perception as a high-risk asset, with a correlation of up to 88% with the stock market. Escalating geopolitical tensions, coupled with soaring oil prices and rising inflation expectations, led to a wave of long liquidation. (CoinDesk )
This sudden event reversed market expectations of a de-escalation of the conflict. Last week, Bitcoin had rebounded to $75,912 due to ceasefire speculation and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, but the price plummeted nearly $2,000 within just 30 minutes of the ultimatum's release, resulting in a $254 million loss for leveraged long positions. Iran's strong response (threats to completely block the Straits and strike Middle Eastern energy infrastructure) has exacerbated uncertainty. The 48-hour deadline expires on the evening of March 23, 2026; without de-escalation, the market could further test the $65,000 support level. (Coinpedia )
Bitcoin price reaction
Bitcoin exhibited typical risk asset characteristics within the event window: rapid decline, amplified leverage, and emerging oversold signals. The hourly candlestick data from March 20th to 23rd, 2026, shows the price slipping from a high of $70,000, a weekly drop of 3.1%, with a total 24-hour liquidation of $299 million, of which long positions accounted for 85%. (CoinGecko )
Key Price Periods Summary (CoinGecko)
| Time period (UTC) | Opening price | highest price | Lowest price | closing price | range of change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 00:00 | $70,236.7 | $70,244 | $69,824.7 | $69,871.5 | -0.5% |
| 2026-03-22 00:00 | $69,192 | - | - | $68,654 | -2.2% (24h) |
| 2026-03-22 22:00 | $68,129.6 | $68,129.6 | $67,564 | $67,836 | -1.5% (peak of the event) |
| 2026-03-23 01:00 | $67,926.4 | $68,041.3 | $67,612.6 | $67,684.2 | -0.2% (Latest) |
Data Interpretation : Following the ultimatum (around 06:00 UTC on March 22, 2026), Bitcoin quickly plummeted from $69,200 to $67,564, with the RSI averaging 39.6-40.1, approaching oversold territory (<30). A surge in trading volume was accompanied by long liquidations, with OKX recording a single liquidation of $10 million in BTC-USDT. The current price is $67,684 (01:00 UTC on March 23, 2026), with the total market capitalization falling below $1.38 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index at 27 (Extreme Fear). (Coinpedia )
Other major cryptocurrencies also declined: ETH fell 3.36% to $2,082, SOL fell 2.72% to $87.33, and DOGE fell 2.82% to $0.091, indicating overall market risk aversion. (PANews)
Correlation with Japanese and South Korean stock markets and global risk assets
While users mentioned the stock market crashes in Japan and South Korea without precise data, news confirmed that global stock markets were under pressure: the anticipated 20% disruption to global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz pushed up oil prices (Brent crude surged to $119 per barrel), triggering inflation concerns and a "hawkish repricing" of interest rates. Bitcoin has an 88% correlation with the S&P 500 and 92% with gold, essentially following macroeconomic risks rather than being a safe-haven asset.
- Stock Market Correlation : The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.36-2.38 trillion, down 1.95%-2.31% in the last 24 hours, highly synchronized with the equity market. As a barometer of risk in the Asia-Pacific region, the sharp declines in Japanese and South Korean stock markets amplified the weekend effect (US stock markets were closed).
- Oil Price Transmission : Escalating Conflict Leads to Energy Price Volatility; Sky Founder Rune's Long Position in Crude Oil Reaps $285,000 in Unrealized Profits, Highlighting the Negative Correlation Between Commodities and Cryptocurrencies. PANews
- Macroeconomic factors combined : PMI data and Fed comments next week may exacerbate volatility, increasing pressure on miners (who have lost nearly $19,000 per BTC).
This correlation explains why Bitcoin hasn't become a "safe haven": institutions shifted to cash and US Treasuries during periods of panic, rather than holding volatile assets. (CoinDesk )
Risk Assessment and Outlook
| Risk factors | Severity | Details and impact |
|---|---|---|
| Geographical deadline expired | high | March 23, 2026, UTC: If Iran does not back down, the US military may strike civilian infrastructure → BTC could fall below $65,000, with total market capitalization dropping to $2.29 trillion. |
| Liquidation Chain | high | Long positions account for 90%, RSI is oversold but leverage has not been cleared → further decline could trigger an additional $200-300 million in margin calls. |
| Macro events | middle | Hawkish PMI/oil inventory/unemployment data next week → rising interest rate expectations, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies |
| Support level test | middle | The total market capitalization of 2.34 trillion yuan serves as immediate support; a break below this level would target the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 2.29 trillion yuan. |
Short-term outlook : If Trump delays his bid or diplomatic relations ease within the next 48 hours, Bitcoin may rebound to $70,000 (a moderate probability of a easing rebound, based on historical geopolitical events). Conversely, a direct confrontation will test the $64,000-$65,000 support level, compounded by low liquidity over the weekend amplifying volatility. Oversold signals (RSI < 40) suggest a possible technical rebound, but caution is warranted regarding persistently high oil prices (the risk of a Hormuz lockdown).
Data limitations : No real-time Twitter social data available, making it impossible to quantify KOL sentiment; specific declines in Japanese and South Korean stock markets are not detailed, but global correlation is confirmed. Price data is up to 01:00 UTC on March 23, 2026; minor adjustments are expected after 01:33 UTC. CoinGecko
Investment perspective : A wait-and-see approach is recommended in the short term, avoiding leverage. Risk-averse investors should reduce their positions to cash; aggressive investors can consider a small position around $67,000 to speculate on a rebound, but with a stop-loss at $65,000. The event itself amplifies macroeconomic uncertainty; Bitcoin's medium- to long-term direction still depends on the Federal Reserve's policy.