Trump's "conciliatory signals" smokescreen: Bitcoin's rebound faces multiple uncertainties.
Key Insights : Trump's claim on March 23 that US-Iran negotiations were "productive" and his statement delaying the strike on Iranian energy facilities propelled Bitcoin's rapid rebound from a low of $67,600 to $70,874 (24h +0.26%). However, Iranian media quickly refuted this, calling it "psychological warfare," causing market volatility exceeding one trillion dollars. Such "smokescreen" tactics amplify the short-term recovery in risk appetite but do not change structural variables such as geopolitical uncertainties, miner cost pressures, and net outflows from ETFs. The $71,000-$73,000 liquidation zone above Bitcoin will be a key test, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. We advise caution against repeated fluctuations . (TechFlowPost Odaily)
Data is current as of approximately March 24, 2026 (about 2 days ago). Geopolitical events are evolving rapidly, and the latest developments need to be continuously monitored. The following analysis, based on Bitget UEX Daily Report and Odaily, breaks down the logic behind the events, market reactions, and potential risks.
Event Timeline and Market Manipulation Logic
This isn't the first time Trump has made a conciliatory statement; such tactics have become his standard market influence strategy: first, release positive signals to trigger a rebound/sell-off, then have official rebuttals create volatility, allowing Wall Street traders to profit precisely. At 19:05 Beijing time on March 23, Trump posted on Truth Social that the US-Iran talks were "productive" and that military strikes had been postponed by five days. Fifteen minutes earlier, a large buy order for $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures appeared (raising the price by 0.3%), and after selling $1.5 billion worth of crude oil futures, he made a profit of $60 million. (Odaily )
| Date/Time (UTC) | event | Immediate market reaction | source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 19:05 UTC | Trump tweets: US-Iran dialogue yields significant results, delaying strikes on Iranian energy facilities by 5 days. | Gold rebounded by over $200; S&P 500 futures rose nearly 4%; Brent crude oil fell from $113 to $97 (-14%); BTC climbed above 70k. | Odaily |
| 2026-03-23 ~20:00 UTC | Iran's Tasnim News Agency refuted the claims, stating they were "psychological warfare" and there was no direct or indirect contact. | The probability of a ceasefire by March 31 at Polymarket fell from 54% to 12%; oil prices stabilized but volatility increased. | Odaily |
| 2026-03-24 | The "Rashomon" of US-Iran negotiations continues, with the White House making cautious statements. | BTC rose 4.3% to $70,600 in the last 24 hours; total market capitalization increased 3.6% to $2.5 trillion. | TechFlowPost |
| 2026-03-25 | Negotiations stalled, shipping was disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz, but Saudi Arabia diverted its route to the Red Sea. | BTC rose 0.68% to $71,176; WTI crude oil rose 1.13% to $91.37 per barrel. | TechFlowPost |
Why is this a smokescreen? History is similar: In April 2025, "fake news" about tariffs initially boosted the Dow Jones by 800 points, but after being debunked, it fell 629 points; Trump frequently posts comments to suppress oil prices at market openings, and coincidentally, the five-day deadline coincides with energy market closures. Iranian scholars claim that "Trump's comments suppress oil prices every week at market openings." This round of manipulation amplifies volatility (on a trillion-dollar scale), benefiting risk assets in the short term, but the political dividend (stock market gains = a signal of economic prosperity) outweighs economic gains, and there is no direct insider evidence. (Odaily )
Bitcoin Market Performance: Short-Term Rebound vs. Structural Pressure
Easing geopolitical signals boosted risk appetite, and BTC rebounded from $67,850 (24h -1.58%, 2026-03-21) to $71,176 (+0.68%, 03-25), with the dominance rate remaining stable at 58.4%-58.6%. However, net outflows from ETFs, increased liquidations, and miner losses indicate that the rebound is fragile.
Key Metrics Comparison: Bitget UEX Series Report TechFlowPost
| index | 2026-03-21 | 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-25 | Interpretation of Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Price (USD) | 67,850 (-1.58%) | 70,874 (+0.26%) | 71,176 (+0.68%) | Geopolitical easing drives a short-term rebound, with dense short covering around 71k-73k (Bitget liquidation map). |
| Total market capitalization | 2.41 trillion (-1.5%) | 2.51 trillion (+0.4%) | 2.52 trillion (+0.5%) | Risk sentiment has recovered, but the BTC dominance rate remains stable without a significant increase. |
| 24-hour margin call | $333 million (dominated by long positions) | $234 million | $157 million (short-dominated) | Active leverage, short squeeze tendency but narrowing scale |
| BTC ETF net inflow | - | -0.619 billion US dollars | +0.785 billion US dollars | Outflows turned into inflows, but accumulated pressure remains (US$253 million - 2 days) PANews |
| Net inflow/outflow of spot goods | -$174 million | - | +0.25 billion US dollars | Institutions bought on dips but did not accelerate. |
Liquidation Map Insights (Bitget BTC/USDT): Currently around 71k, the long liquidation below has been digested, while the 71.5k-74k range has dense short leverage. The market is biased towards upward movement with short-covering, but the high leverage zone around 72k could amplify volatility . Miner costs are at $88k/BTC (a 21% loss at 69.2k), the hashrate has dropped to 920 EH/s, and block time has been delayed to 12 minutes+, increasing downward pressure on the mining economy and posing a greater downside risk. TechFlowPost
Analysis of the variables affecting the rebound: multiple risks superimposed
Geopolitics continues to dominate : the "Rashomon" of negotiations persists (Trump's optimism vs. White House caution), oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz but Saudi Arabia diverts to the Red Sea. Without a substantial agreement, oil prices reignite (Brent crude fluctuates between $97 and $106), stagflation concerns push for a more hawkish stance from the Fed, and BTC beta amplifies its downward trend. TechFlowPost Wintermute: Oil prices stabilize at $100/BTC, testing 74-76k; a deterioration could see a return to 65k.
Macroeconomic transmission : Federal Reserve governors maintain four rate cuts this year, but oil price shocks offset the impact; Nasdaq down 0.84% (draged down by technology), with high correlation to BTC. ETF outflows + S&P/Nasdaq ETFs saw $64 billion outflow in March, putting pressure on risk assets. PANews
On-chain/Sentiment Pressure : Bernstein reiterates year-end $150,000 target but calls recent pullback a "sentiment reset"; BlackRock executives favor BTC/ETH, AI > new coins. Michael Terpin predicts bear market bottom at $42,000, cycle unchanged at 46 months. TechFlowPost
Data limitations : No real-time price/on-chain data for March 26; relies on daily reports from March 24/25; geopolitical events are frequent, and conclusions are based on historical patterns.
Outlook and Strategy Recommendations
Short-term : The clearing of short positions above 71k provides upward momentum, but repeated smokescreens could easily trap long positions (similar to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict: an initial rebound followed by weakness). Support is at 65-67k, and resistance is at 74.5-76k.
Mid-term outlook : High probability of geopolitical easing (2-6 week ceasefire expected), opening up upside potential for BTC (BitMart: Breaking through 70k long-term resistance), but miner capitulation + ETF shift is a confirmation signal.
Action Perspective :
- Aggressive : Light long position at 71k liquidation zone, stop loss at 69.5k.
- Conservative : Wait and see how the negotiations progress and ETF inflows turn positive; consider allocating to 65k units on dips.
- Risk : Oil prices > $110/barrel or negotiations break down, increasing the probability of BTC returning to 60k.
Bottom line : Trump's smokescreen amplified volatility but did not signal a trend reversal. The Bitcoin rebound was a product of risk appetite recovery. Structural variables (geopolitical + miner + macroeconomics) dominate downside risks; risk control should be the priority . (Odaily)