SIREN Price Analysis: After a 50% drop, it rebounded by over 110%, manipulated by large investors like an "ATM".

Key Insight : SIREN (BSC chain contract 0x997A58129890bBdA032231A52eD1ddC845fc18e1 , Meme/AI Agent project) has indeed rebounded by over 110% from its March 25th low of $0.797 to its current price of $1.81 (a 24-hour increase of 103%). However, this is not a healthy rebound, but rather a continuation of the manipulation of the Binance contract index by large investors using an extremely high control ratio of 88.5% on Gate/Kucoin with shallow liquidity. The total liquidation amount exceeds $23 million (with $910,000 recently primarily short positions), similar to cases like RIVER/BEAT, where retail investors repeatedly "contribute" to become the large investors' ATM. Data as of 09:22 UTC on March 28, 2026, is relatively recent, but the precise distribution of on-chain holders relies on indirect verification by Arkham. CoinGecko

Why is this important? Under this manipulation model, rebounds can easily turn into new harvests: the big players hoard spot goods + push up prices with long positions → induce short selling with negative fees → dump the shares and liquidate positions → buy back at low prices. The current market capitalization is $1.324 billion (total supply of 1 billion tokens), with active trading at $159 million, but 88.5% of the tokens are concentrated, amplifying the manipulation risk. Retail investors who chase the high prices are likely to become victims.

Price movement: After being halved, it rebounded sharply with extremely high volatility.

SIREN started at $0.35 at the end of February, surging to a peak of $3.605 in mid-March (its market capitalization once reached $3.675 billion, placing it in the top 30), before halving to a low of $0.797 on March 25 (a drop of over 78% from its peak). It then rebounded from March 26-28 to $2.077, then $1.692, and finally to $1.81, a cumulative increase of over 110%. On March 28, it rebounded 128% from its closing price of $0.795, but historical patterns suggest that such fluctuations are often manipulated by large investors. (CoinGecko )

Key period OHLC data (March 23 to March 28, 2026, daily UTC) CoinGecko

Analysis : The rebound after the price halved stemmed from large investors buying on dips after a sell-off (short sellers liquidated 800,000 USD), but open interest surged to $58.83 million on February 8th, indicating earlier signs of trouble. The current price is $1.8113, with a market capitalization of $1.324 billion and 24-hour trading volume of $159 million (12% of market capitalization). While liquidity appears ample, it is actually shallow and easily manipulated. (CoinGecko)

Liquidation and leverage data: Short sellers were the main victims of margin calls, while market manipulators "raked in" over $23 million.

The total liquidation volume across the network was once second only to BTC/ETH/XAU, ranking fourth ($23.25 million). Recently, it aggregated $910,000 in the past hour, with only $103,000 from long positions and $807,000 from short positions, confirming the logic of a short-selling trap: market makers hold long positions to collect "free funds" at negative fees, then dump short positions to liquidate short positions. (Coinglass)

Why ATM ? Gate's spot supply is only 64,000 tokens (Arkham data, 3/22). A $100,000 trade can trigger a 40% price fluctuation, causing liquidations in the Binance futures index (Gate accounts for 25%). Even after adjustments, the futures index remains shallow, allowing large players to manipulate the market and profit from small-scale spot price drops.

Evidence of market manipulation: 88.5% control of the market, with minimal liquidity used for "cross-exchange profiteering".

Multiple sources confirm that a major player (suspected to be DWF Labs, denied by Zac) controls 88.5% of the supply (644 million on-chain coins, 52 wallets + CEX portion). EmberCN aggregates Arkham tokens 048c9efe-27e9-4581-b433-066c807af2f9 ). Arkham saw intensive aggregation of 66.5% on March 22-23, pushing up the price → negative fees inducing short selling (starting March 14) → 78% volatility in the first 10 minutes of trading on the Gate on March 23 (450,000 tokens traded) → a large bearish candlestick pattern, similar to River/Power/Beat. (Odaily )

Technique breakdown :

1. Accumulating spot holdings and opening long positions : 88.5% of the holdings, pushing the price up to $5.
2. Short selling in a trap : negative rates give away money to short sellers.
3. Market crash and liquidation : Gate/Kucoin shallow pool (64,000 coins) is easy to control, liquidation of 23 million coins.
4. Buying back at low levels : A rebound marks the beginning of a new cycle.

On-chain interactions are sparse (DeBank received only 18 transactions in 30 days, with no large transfers), allowing for minimal manipulation by major players. Dune lacks a SIREN holder chart, but news reports are consistent across different platforms.

Social and News Sentiment: Promotion and Criticism Coexist, KOL Early Warning and Control

Most of the 951 tweets were promotions for Diadem_ETH ("no SIREN no LAMBO"), but KOLs directly accused the market manipulators: EmberCN commented "88.5% one-man show," xiaoheshang said "the market manipulators draw lines arbitrarily," and laofeiyyds said "it has a TRB feel to it." Odaily/Techflow and others provided detailed analyses of leveraged scams, noting that the stock price fell 59% to $1.01 on March 24th before rebounding. X Odaily

Sentiment is neutral to slightly negative: retail investors are experiencing FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), and professionals should be wary of "harvesting schemes".

Risk Assessment: High risk of manipulation; retail investor ATM confirmed.

Mitigating factors : The trading volume of 159 million provides apparent liquidity, but does not change the underlying control mechanism. Data limitations: Dune lacks a precise shareholder chart and relies on indirect information from Arkham News.

Conclusions and Outlook

SIREN's 110% rebound after a 50% drop is true, but the root cause is a cyclical manipulation by large investors with 88.5% control and shallow pooling: retail investors contributed over 23 million in leveraged funds, allowing large investors to buy low and sell high with no risk. The current price of $1.81 seems like an opportunity, but it's actually a trap—similar cases often end with a large bearish candle. Recommendation : Avoid chasing the price up, monitor Gate.cn/EmberCN updates; short-term traders should wait for confirmation of stabilization below $1.20, while long-term traders should avoid this. In a sluggish market, such "broccoli florets" (a type of short-term trading strategy) are frequent; be wary of leveraged FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). (Odaily)