Saylor accused of LUNA-style manipulation undermines Bitcoin's safe-haven logic.

Execution Summary

Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently halted its Bitcoin accumulation for the first time in 13 consecutive weeks, instead heavily promoting its perpetual preferred stock (STRC). Meanwhile, global listed companies saw a 99.93% drop in net Bitcoin purchases last week, falling to a mere $70,000, making Strategy's move a "rarely seen zero purchase." With Bitcoin's current price hovering between $66,000 and $67,000, Strategy's holdings are showing a paper loss exceeding $7 billion. This move has been questioned by some market observers as a "LUNA-style" high-leverage financing operation, undermining Bitcoin's "safe-haven asset" narrative . However, data does not show direct evidence to support the "LUNA-style" accusation , reflecting more of a financing strategy adjustment and caution under macroeconomic pressures. Bitcoin is likely to experience short-term volatility, with institutional inflows in the second half of the year potentially driving a rebound to $95,000.

Key data limitations : The provided materials lack direct reports or accusations of "Saylor's involvement in LUNA-style operations," offering only the objective fact and market interpretation of Strategy's suspension of BTC purchases; discussions about Bitcoin's safe-haven logic largely stem from geopolitical conflicts, with no quantitative conflict data. The analysis is based on news from March 30th to April 1st, 2026, indicating high data freshness (<3 days).

Strategy Bitcoin Strategy Shifts Focus: First Stop of Buying in 13 Weeks, Switching to Preferred Stock STRC

Strategy initiated an aggressive BTC buying spree at the end of 2025, accumulating approximately 90,831 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 762,099 BTC. The average cost was $75,694, and the total cost was approximately $57.69 billion. However , Bitcoin has since halved 47% from its October 2025 high of $126,000 to its current price of $66,389, shrinking the portfolio's market value to $50.5 billion, resulting in a paper loss exceeding $7 billion .

• This week's signal was interrupted : Saylor did not post the signature "orange dot" BTC buy chart on Sunday, but instead retweeted a post stating that STRC's volatility over the past 30 days was lower than all S&P 500 components, with an annualized dividend of 11.5%, requiring only a BTC return of 2.13%. (Odaily)
• Funding Shift : On March 23, a $42 billion ATM plan was announced (21 billion MSTR common stock and 21 billion STRC preferred stock). In March, $1.2 billion was raised through STRC to buy BTC, with preferred stock becoming the primary tool, surpassing common stock for the first time. However, 80% of STRC holders are crypto retail investors, whose confidence is tied to the price of BTC.
• Last week saw zero net buying confirmed : Global listed companies (excluding mining companies) net purchased only $70,000 worth of BTC, a decrease of 99.93%; Strategy and Metaplanet saw zero net buying, with Strategy accounting for 76% of corporate holdings. (Odaily )

Why the shift? Buying momentum has weakened (only 1,031 tokens last week, costing $76.6 million), and the sluggish BTC market coupled with geopolitical risks (US-Iran conflict) amplifies unrealized losses. Saylor's push for STRC is essentially to stabilize financing channels and avoid common stock dilution, but if BTC continues to fall, STRC demand may shrink, creating a feedback loop. This superficially resembles the LUNA crash (algorithmic stablecoins rely heavily on confidence due to high leverage): both rely on secondary market sentiment to finance asset purchases, but Strategy lacks a "money printing" mechanism, only offering leveraged exposure.

Analysis of the "LUNA-style operation": Similarities and essential differences

The market's comparison of Strategy to the "LUNA-style" stems from its high-leverage financing for buying BTC: raising funds through equity/debt issuance → buying BTC → stock price rising with BTC → refinancing in a cycle. However, the current halving of BTC exposes risks, similar to the collapse of confidence in the Terra ecosystem.

Similarities :

• Leverage dependence : Strategy's BTC holdings account for the majority of its total assets, and its stock price beta is high (similar to the historical 76% drawdown of MSTR).
• Retail-driven : STRC has 80% retail holders, making them prone to emotional selling.
• Interruption signal : First pause in 13 weeks, similar to the wavering confidence before LUNA.

Essential differences (based on data):

• No algorithmic risk : LUNA is self-circulating based on the UST anchoring mechanism, while Strategy BTC is a physical asset with no risk of "de-anchoring".
• Compliance module : Strategy's holdings account for 5.1% of the circulating shares, its financing is open and transparent (SEC filing), and it is not a Ponzi scheme.
• Historical resilience : The market did not collapse after past pauses (such as July/October 2025).

Data limitations : There are no direct accusations in the reports; the skepticism may stem from social sentiment. The Bitwise interview emphasizes that institutional inflows are driving long-term growth, not a short-term collapse risk. (Odaily)

Bitcoin's Hedging Logic: Resilience and Pressure Amid Geopolitical Conflicts

Bitcoin traded in a weak and volatile range this week (support at 66k, resistance at 69.5k). The 4-hour chart shows a break below the lower trendline of the ascending channel, suggesting a high probability of a C-3 wave correction. Odaily reports that geopolitical risks (US-Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz) have boosted cash preference, leading to a sharp decline in corporate buying.

• Safe-haven performance : JPM states that BTC outperforms gold (gold fell 15%, with an outflow of 11 billion), and has advantages in cross-border liquidity and self-custody. Odaily
• Sources of pressure : retail investors fleeing Crypto and flocking to US stocks (correlation coefficient to turn negative by the end of 2025), listed companies reducing their holdings; macroeconomic uncertainty (declining expectations of Fed rate cuts).
• Bitwise Outlook : $95k by year-end, with institutional inflows into ETFs in the second half (2-5% allocation), shifting from retail to institutional net positive. (Odaily)

Level of volatility : Short-term risk aversion narratives are under pressure (cash > risk assets), but long-term institutional adoption (15 billion AUM ETF) is supporting a rebound. The Strategy pause is not an isolated case, reflecting collective caution.

Risk Assessment and Outlook

Mitigation factors : Bitcoin-collateralized debt received a Ba2 rating (1.6x overcollateralization), demonstrating its potential for structured hedging; innovations such as Starcloud space mining reduced costs. (Odaily )

Outlook : Short-term volatility (65k support likely to hold), watch for confirmation of a Strategy buy on Monday at 8-K; if no buy is made, STRC will test the attractiveness of the 11.5% dividend. Long-term, Bitcoin is not LUNA; institutional shifts are driving the market, and 95k is a reasonable target by year-end. Investment perspective : Cautiously observe entry below 60k, avoiding high beta exposure on STRC.

Data transparency : The analysis is limited to the 10 Odaily news articles provided, without a direct response from Saylor or on-chain evidence; for in-depth analysis of social/on-chain information, further queries are recommended. Current time: 2026-04-01 05:31 UTC; all data is less than 3 days old.