Powell to remain on the board until 2028 and 10-year yields return to 4.40%: Event confirmation and impact on the crypto market.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced on April 29, 2026 , that he would remain on the Board of Governors until January 2028, after his term as chairman ends on May 15. This is the first time since 1948, against the backdrop of legal attacks on the Fed by the Trump administration (involving an investigation into renovations to the Fed headquarters). Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.40%-4.42% , a near one-month high, influenced by hawkish signals from the FOMC and rising oil prices due to the conflict with Iran. This event sparked political controversy, but the crypto market reacted mildly, with Bitcoin prices slightly retreating to around $75,000. On-chain indicators showed no signs of panic selling at fair value, and the Fear & Greed Index remained at 28 (Fear). Data as of 01:36 UTC on April 30, 2026, showing high freshness and consistency. Yahoo Finance NYT
Background and details of the event
Powell emphasized that his continued tenure was due to "unprecedented legal actions" impacting the Fed's independence, including the DOJ's investigation into the Fed's renovation spending (currently closed but potentially reopened). He plans to perform his duties "discreetly," while Trump responded by saying Powell was "unemployed" and thus remained in office, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accusing him of violating Fed norms. This decision breaks with recent precedent (Yellen, Bernanke, etc., all left office around the same time) and could extend to 2028, affecting voting rights on monetary policy. (Fed Bio Fox News)
The 10-year yield dynamics reflect the market's interpretation of the Fed's hawkish stance: The FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, but three members opposed any "dodging hints," and traders expect the probability of a rate hike in April 2027 to rise to one-third; coupled with oil price pressure from the Iran war, this has pushed yields upward. (TradingEconomics)
Recent Trends in 10-Year Yields (Data as of April 30, 2026) - TradingEconomics
| the term | Yield | Daily Variation | Monthly Variation | Annual variation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year term | 4.42% | -0.012% | +0.104% | +0.191% |
| 2-year term | 3.94% | -0.030% | +0.130% | +0.234% |
| 5-year term | 3.96% | -0.022% | +0.135% | +0.268% |
| 30-year term | 4.25% | -0.038% | +0.112% | +0.231% |
Yields rose to near a one-month high, becoming more sensitive in the short term, suggesting that the market is pricing in stronger expectations of interest rate hikes, which is putting pressure on risk assets.
BTC Price and On-Chain Reaction
BTC experienced a mild pullback during the event window (April 29-30, 2026), closing at $76,345.2 on April 29 and $75,774.9 on April 30 (-0.7%), testing the 73k support level but holding above it. Over the past 10 days, it has fluctuated between 75k and 78k, without significant sell-offs, reflecting that the market has digested the event without amplifying panic. (CoinGecko)
Recent BTC OHLC data (1-day interval, April 20-30, 2026) - CoinGecko
| date | opening | Highest | lowest | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 77312.2 | 77431.7 | 75706.3 | 76345.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | 76343.5 | 77808.2 | 75102.7 | 75774.9 |
| April overall high | - | 79399.8 | - | - |
On-chain metrics are neutral to slightly optimistic: MVRV 1.40 (fair value, not overheated), NUPL 0.286 (optimistic zone), SOPR 0.993 (slight profit-taking), NVT 25.1 (undervalued). The realized price of $54,116 provides strong support, significantly lower than the current price. (CryptoQuant)
Key On-Chain Metrics for BTC (April 29, 2026) - CryptoQuant
| index | value | Signal | meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV | 1.40 | fair | Market capitalization/realized value, not a bubble. |
| NUPL | 0.286 | optimism | Unrealized profit/loss is neutral to bullish. |
| SOPR | 0.993 | Slight profit | On-chain transfers are close to cost price |
| NVT | 25.1 | underestimate | Network value/trading volume attracts buyers |
| Funding rates | 0.000% | neutral | Perpetual contracts have no extreme positions |
Historically, changes in the Fed chairmanship have caused significant drops in Bitcoin (84% drop when Yellen took office, 73% drop during Powell's first term), but this time the reaction was limited, with no on-chain capitulation signal.
Market sentiment and social feedback
The Fear & Greed Index is at 28 (Fear) , with a 7-day downward trend, suggesting buying opportunities but with a cautious sentiment. (Coinglass)
Twitter discussions were primarily politically confrontational (e.g., Trump criticizing Powell), with sporadic crypto posts mentioning BTC's 60k support level or a K-line recovery, but no panic selling narratives. Top funding rates were extreme (e.g., +135% for grassroots funds), but BTC was neutral, avoiding leverage squeeze. (Coinglass)
Fear & Greed Index (Recent Period, April 21-30, 2026) - Coinglass
| date | index | mood | BTC price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 27 | fear | $76,287 |
| 2026-04-30 | 28 | fear | $75,667 |
Impact Assessment and Outlook
Immediate Impact : The event confirms a hawkish stance (rising yields, Powell's willingness to remain neutral to protect independence), suppressing risk assets, but BTC remains resilient—the price only dipped slightly, and on-chain performance is stable, better than historical precedents. Political noise has not translated into crypto, and neutral funding rates prevent a squeeze.
Outlook : If yields remain stable above 4.40%, it could exacerbate BTC's downward trend towards the 73k-75k range; conversely, if the situation in Iran eases or Warsh confirms easing measures, BTC may rebound to 78k. On-chain optimism supports accumulation, and the fear level of 28 presents a potential buying opportunity, but caution is warranted regarding the risk of a renewed DOJ investigation. Short-term neutral; focus on FOMC actions and BTC's 73k support level.
Investment Perspective : The event has been digested; BTC's current price of $75,775 is close to its fair value, making it suitable for range trading rather than chasing the highs. Data coverage is complete, fresh, and conflict-free, but political uncertainty requires monitoring. CryptoQuant