Source: Assassin at Night
This is a brilliant opinion article on stock investment by derivatives tycoon "Assassin at Night", but it is also applicable to the crypto industry, especially to players who are new to crypto investment.
1. Public opinion can be easily manipulated.
In the age of social media, public opinion can be more easily manipulated.
All websites and social media are trying to create buzz, attract traffic, or clicks. It is hard to know what is true and what is false. Who is behind something? What is the purpose of so many people talking?
But the benefits are real.
Benefits are not necessarily money. They can be fame, the feeling of being admired, or even the governor of California.
But everyone has their own demands.
Ask yourself, when you speak out in the media, what are your own demands?
2. Perhaps everyone who trades in stocks would say: My goal is to make money.
Actually not.
For most people, the stock market is just for fun, to take a gamble, to try out the feeling of a heartbeat, to kill time, to increase topics of conversation with friends, to curse unscrupulous capitalists and bankers together, and to vent emotions.
For these people, entertainment comes first, and the pleasure of talking nonsense comes first.
Is the motivation to make money really so strong that one has to sacrifice entertainment time to read and study, abandon one's greed, anger, and ignorance, and achieve extreme emotional control?
These are all very bitter and difficult things.
Heaven has bestowed a great mission on this person. What is the first sentence that follows?
It is "one must first suffer in mind and spirit". Then comes the suffering of muscles, bones and skin. The body is a little tired. The first suffering is to temper the mind. Abandon emotions, always be calm, always be rational, always think with your brain instead of your butt.
There are always rumors that male traders take estrogen to control their emotions. Can you castrate yourself for money?
Therefore, for most people, the desire to make money from stock trading is not that great.
Therefore, at any given time, only a few people can make money.
3. Chamath is really smart, and his remarks are almost impeccable. However, none of them directly hit the core of the issue, but instead created an emotional connection with retail investors and voters.
It is absolutely true that retail investors can operate without considering fundamentals, and high-frequency trading can also operate without considering fundamentals. Moreover, high-frequency trading has been criticized for a long time. It is very easy to resonate with everyone if we unite to fight against it.
For example, the current debate festivals in China that receive high praise from the audience are not based on reasoning or clear logic, but on providing entertainment or emotional value to the audience and generating empathy.
It is easy to incite after empathy. Incitement is a derogatory word, and its positive meaning is encouragement and motivation.
This era is about seeing who can incite/inspire. Trump is very good at it.
It is not easy to incite/encourage people to feel comfortable listening to it, without using incorrect wording and making it sound as if you are making sense.
Chamath is indeed a powerful character.
4. Let’s talk about the issue of short selling exceeding 100%.
The article I wrote two days ago, "Explain to you clearly what short squeeze is all about", has already answered this question. A stock can be borrowed, sold, borrowed again, and sold again, in an infinite cycle.
This operation is not only provided to institutions. Retail investors also participate in and exacerbate this process by short selling.
The rules of this game are relatively fair. Then why do you want to allow shorts?
The high-sounding answer is to allow more value discovery and improve the efficiency of the market. In fact, it is the brokerage firms that want to make money and are casino dealers.
Allowing short selling is like adding another gambling table to a casino. No one forces you to gamble, and no one forces you to speculate in stocks. If you think it is unfair, just don't participate.
5. Now let’s talk about the fact that many brokerage firms do not allow trading today.
Changing the rules midway is indeed unfair. But is there any absolute fairness? Even if you go to a casino to play blackjack, if the casino sees that you are winning too much, they will increase the number of decks from 6 to 8, and will also add shuffling midway.
You are weak, you can only accept it, otherwise don't play.
Don't talk about human rights and equality. For vulnerable groups, ensuring their basic survival is already humane.
But capital has no obligation to ensure that these people are treated fairly in casino entertainment.
6. Both reality and capital are cruel.
For example, they promote consumerism and give you a credit card loan with 20% compound interest every year, which is like suicide.
Buying things is fun, but taking out a credit card loan can take a lifetime to pay off. So the capitalists have locked you in for life.
Isn't that cruel? Is that fair?
What you can avoid is not taking out a credit card loan in the first place.
But most Americans just can’t help themselves.
Again, most people have no way to harden their minds.
7. Let’s talk about Chamath.
Most of what he said was right, and it was very easy to empathize with him.
But he didn't get to the point. Is there any pump and dump market manipulation? And do we need a mature and orderly market? This is the core of the problem.
In addition, he mentioned that wealthy people in the Hamptons can discuss this in private gatherings, so why can't they discuss it publicly on the Internet?
I didn't come up with any good answers.
But in the end, it is the minority who decide the rules.
