Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Jinse Finance, covering the week's key news, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is one of the news weekly, taking you through this week's blockchain industry events.
Headlines
▌Federal Reserve dot plot: only one rate cut is expected in 2024
The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that the federal funds rate is expected to be 5.1% at the end of 2024, and 4.6% in March; the federal funds rate is expected to be 4.1% at the end of 2025, and 3.9% in March; the federal funds rate is expected to be 3.1% at the end of 2026, and 3.1% in March; the long-term federal funds rate is expected to be 2.8%, and 2.6% in March.
▌Bloomberg ETF analyst: The launch date of the spot Ethereum ETF may be brought forward to July 2
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote on the X platform: "The launch date of the spot Ethereum ETF may be brought forward to July 2. I heard that the staff sent comments on the S-1 to the issuer today, and the comments were brief and there were no major issues. They asked for a reply in a week. They are likely to announce the effectiveness next week and resolve the matter before the holiday. Anything is possible, but this is our best guess at the moment. The previous forecast date was July 4, so this is not a major shift."
Optimism mainnet " fault proof" system is now online
Layer 2 blockchain Optimism aims to help Ethereum users transact quickly and with low fees. Its technology is the basis for some of the biggest names in blockchain, but for years, Optimism has had a problem. Until now, a core feature has been missing from Optimism’s security design: “proof of failure.” On Monday, the long-promised technology finally landed on Optimism’s mainnet.
Fault proofs are designed to ensure the honesty of Optimism-based Layer-2 chains. They help prevent Layer-2 chain operators from passing inaccurate transaction data to Ethereum's Layer-1 transaction ledger and provide support for the "decentralized" withdrawal mechanism of Layer-2 chains.
▌Musk faces shareholder lawsuit because his acquisition of Twitter harmed Tesla's interests
A new shareholder derivative lawsuit alleges that Musk sold Tesla stock and diverted Tesla resources in the process of acquiring the social media platform then called Twitter (now renamed "X"), violating his obligations to Tesla shareholders. On Monday, the Rhode Island State Employees' Retirement System sued Musk, Tesla and Tesla board members, alleging that Musk's heavy investment in the Twitter acquisition distracted him from his duties at Tesla, created a conflict of interest and harmed Tesla's interests.
policy
▌Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority closes crypto bank FlowBank and initiates bankruptcy proceedings
The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) has decided to close FlowBank, a Swiss online bank that provides cryptocurrency services to customers. The regulator said that the bank no longer has sufficient capital to maintain its banking business, and there are good reasons to worry that the bank is currently over-indebted and has no prospects for restructuring. It is reported that Swiss law firm Walder Wyss has been appointed by FINMA as the bank's bankruptcy liquidator.
▌The UK advances global leadership in fintech and digital assets
Crypto advocacy group Stand with Crypto (SwC) was launched in London, just as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the general election. SwC has put forward a series of recommendations aimed at making the UK a global hub for fintech, digital assets and tokenization. The recommendations include promoting the UK as a hub for Web3 and tokenization, developing a regulatory framework for crypto assets, providing regulatory clarity for staking, promoting the benefits of decentralization, developing a cross-government blockchain strategy, developing a tokenization strategy for the City of London, and updating the legal framework for digital assets. These measures are designed to attract investment, promote innovation, and drive the development of the UK digital economy.
EU vote could lead to a more innovation-friendly policy framework
Voting for the 720 Members of Parliament (MEPs) began last week, with results from 27 countries rolling in since Sunday. The elected MEPs include Legislative Rapporteur for Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) Stefan Berger, Ondrej Kovarik and former Chair of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON) Irene Tingali.
Mark Foster, EU policy lead at the Crypto Innovation Commission, said the election results showed a slight rightward shift, coupled with a stronger European People’s Party and weaker Greens, which is likely to make the EU more focused on competitiveness and growth over the next five years. This could lead to a more innovation-friendly policy framework.
Cryptocurrency is not a key theme in the EU elections, but the future of cryptocurrencies will depend on the commissioners who can propose legislation. Some members of the crypto community are seeking more blockchain policy, but MEPs cannot propose new legislation, they can only develop and decide on it. New commissioners will be chosen after the EU elections.
▌The Senate bill requires the crypto industry to transform to identify users, but industry insiders believe the bill has little chance of passing
A Senate bill aimed at funding U.S. intelligence operations includes a section that draws on a previous bill aimed at preventing the use of cryptocurrencies to support terrorism, according to sources. The provision could require a massive transformation of the crypto industry to identify users to prevent sanctions that could stifle digital asset businesses. If the bill becomes law, it would be the most significant crypto policy passed in the U.S. to date — and its merits have yet to spark major debate.
The conversations suggest the matter remains on the table as the spending package moves forward, awaiting broader Senate consideration and possible inclusion in the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), but industry insiders see limited chances of the bill surviving.
▌Biden is expected to choose Goldsmith Romero as the next FDIC chairman
The White House is preparing to pick Christy Goldsmith Romero, a top U.S. derivatives regulator, to lead an effort to reform the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, according to people familiar with the matter. No final decision has been made and an announcement could come as early as this week, the people said.
▌Opinion : The US crypto industry shows signs of recovery after the regulatory storm
Matter Labs CEO Alex Gluchowski said that the U.S. crypto industry has become a "powerful electoral force." Last year, the crypto market was sluggish due to the deteriorating regulatory environment, but the situation has improved this year, with projects such as Circle planning to go public in the United States.
Despite the regulatory challenges from the Securities and Exchange Commission, Blockworks co-founder Jason Yanowitz pointed out that the number of conference speakers has rebounded this year, indicating that industry confidence has recovered. Bill Hughes, chief legal officer of Consensys, believes that regulatory uncertainty inhibits innovation and gives large companies a competitive advantage. Joshua Riezeman, deputy general counsel of GCR, warned that the United States needs to clarify the regulatory framework, otherwise it will lose more crypto companies.
Despite the challenges, Gluchowski emphasized the growing influence of the U.S. crypto community, as exemplified by the bipartisan FIT21 bill. Hughes believes that the U.S. has advantages in capital and talent and can still lead the crypto space.
▌Powell : Confidence in inflation slowing down enough to cut interest rates has not yet increased, and it will take longer to cut interest rates
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that more recent inflation data has slowed down; more good data is needed to boost confidence in the anti-inflation process; continue to pay close attention to inflation risks; so far this year, our confidence that inflation has slowed down enough to cut interest rates has not increased.
Powell said that the U.S. economy has made significant progress in employment and inflation; the inflation rate has eased significantly, but is still too high; economic activity has expanded at a steady pace; the Federal Reserve generally expects GDP growth to slow from last year; the pace of job growth remains strong, but slower than in the first quarter; the FOMC expects the labor market to continue to be strong.
Powell said that the major factor in changing the forecast of the interest rate path is inflation; the inflation process stagnated in the first quarter, which means that it will take longer to cut interest rates; the timing of the interest rate cut has been delayed due to the slowdown in inflation progress; we must let the data illuminate the way forward; today's inflation report is better than almost everyone expected; the FOMC has begun to believe that interest rates will not return to pre-epidemic levels.
Powell said that the entire interest rate path is important, not just the first rate cut; the first rate cut is crucial to the economy; and the timing of the rate cut is an important decision for the economy.
Blockchain Applications
▌ Starknet core developers launch Catnet to test Bitcoin Circle STARK Verifier deployment
Starknet core development member X Platform announced the launch of Catnet, a custom OP_CAT-enabled Bitcoin signet that will be used to test the deployment of Bitcoin Circle STARK Verifier. Abdel added that the Faucet is coming soon.
▌ Aethir launches decentralized cloud computing network on Ethereum
Aethir, a blockchain project that recently raised $120 million in a node sale, is launching its decentralized cloud computing network on the Ethereum mainnet, according to a press release. The project aims to find underutilized graphics processing units (GPUs) for intensive tasks such as AI model training and gaming.
▌ Figure launches blockchain private loan marketplace Figure Connect
Figure Technology Solutions launches Figure Connect, a blockchain-based private credit marketplace designed to improve market liquidity by standardizing sales terms and documentation. The platform allows investors to commit funds before loans are issued and uses blockchain technology to achieve greater transparency and immutability, reducing repeated third-party audits.
Currently, Figure Connect has two loan originators, The Loan Store and Movement Mortgage, and two loan buyers, Bayview Asset Management and Saluda Grade. Figure plans to create a TBA market similar to the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage market, improving liquidity and lowering interest rates through standardization and guarantees.
Figure Chairman and Founder Mike Cagney is preparing for the IPO of Figure Technology Services and serves as CEO of Figure Markets, a forthcoming cryptocurrency and securities exchange.
▌Data : Bitcoin’s average annual return is as high as about 104%
Since its first trade in 2011, Bitcoin has had an average annual return of about 104%, outperforming the returns of Warren Buffett's portfolio and the U.S. stock market. According to Lazy Portfolio ETFs, Warren Buffett's portfolio has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 10.03% over the past 30 years, with a standard deviation of 13.67%. In contrast, a portfolio of U.S. corporate stocks has provided roughly the same return, but with a higher standard deviation. In contrast, Bitcoin has had an average annual return of about 104% since its first trade in 2011.
Bitcoin mining companies' output in May fell by about 40% month-on- month
According to Farside Investors data, major Bitcoin mining companies have announced production data for May 2024. May was the first full month since the halving, and production fell by about 40% month-on-month.
▌ Bitwise: Ethereum's Q1 revenue exceeds Robinhood, Etsy, Yel and Reddit
Bitwise research analyst Ryan Rasmussen posted on social media that crypto applications built on Ethereum generate revenue comparable to some public companies. In the first quarter of 2024, Ethereum's revenue exceeded Robinhood, Etsy, Yelp, and Reddit.
▌US Spot Bitcoin ETF increased its holdings by 1,805 Bitcoins on June 10
According to Lookonchain monitoring, data from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on June 10 showed that BlackRock increased its holdings by 2,437 bitcoins, worth approximately US$170.24 million. BlackRock currently holds a total of 304,977 bitcoins, worth approximately US$21.3 billion; Grayscale reduced its holdings by 545 bitcoins, worth approximately US$38 million, and currently holds a total of 285,106 bitcoins, worth approximately US$19.92 billion; 9 Bitcoin ETFs increased their holdings by a total of 1,805 bitcoins, worth approximately US$126.12 million.
▌ Nansen: Provided some data on specific wallet categories to Matter Labs
Nansen posted a clarification on the X platform, aiming to clear up some of the community's confusion about the zkSync airdrop. Nansen provided Matter Labs with some data on specific wallet categories, such as huge users and known scammers, but did not take anti-sybil measures or make recommendations on the airdrop allocation itself. If you see someone tweeting something that distorts the facts, they are spreading false information. Congratulations to all ZK holders, and Nansen will provide support to all other participants in the zkSync ecosystem.
▌ LayerZero: Symbiotic will be integrated into the LayerZero DVN framework
LayerZero Labs announced on the X platform that Symbiotic will be available on LayerZero. Through Ethena Labs, Symbiotic will be integrated into the LayerZero DVN framework, enabling users to stake ENA to secure cross-chain transfers of Ethena assets.
Cryptocurrency
DACFP founder: American financial advisors are beginning to accept Bitcoin
Ric Edelman, founder of the Digital Asset Council of Financial Professionals (DACFP), said that U.S. financial advisors are now more willing to include Bitcoin in their portfolios because they see data showing improved risk-adjusted returns.
Ric Edelman said that in the past three months, the number of financial advisors willing to include BTC in their investment portfolios in the next year has increased by 80%, thanks to the listing of the spot Bitcoin ETF in January and the participation of asset management giant BlackRock.
BBVA , Spain’s second-largest bank, launches cryptocurrency custody service in Turkey
Garanti BBVA, the Turkish subsidiary of BBVA, Spain’s second-largest bank with $700 billion in assets, has begun offering crypto custody services. “Garanti BBVA Digital Assets now allows clients to transfer and store BTC, ETH and USDC assets on its mobile platform Garanti BBVA Crypto,” the bank said in a statement.
Garanti BBVA Executive Vice President Çağrı Süzer said the pilot study of the new service was a success. He said: "The beta version of the Garanti BBVA Crypto application has previously provided this service to some customers, and now it is available to all customers. Although we initially provide services for BTC, ETH and USDC, we will continue to grow in the future by increasing the diversity of assets and service infrastructure."
▌Bloomberg ETF analyst: Everyone agrees that tokenization is important
Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF analyst, said on X platform, "Had an enlightening discussion with 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, digital asset analyst Matthew Sigel and Jason Xavier at the Proof of Talk inside the Louvre today. All agreed that tokenization is important, but may not be a substitute for ETFs. Sigel predicted that the Bitcoin ETF will exceed $500 billion in the U.S. in 5 years, and Snyder said that the world may exceed this number. They all thought that I may underestimate the demand for the Ethereum ETF, and they planned to position it as a "production technology stock" and "the ultimate app store", which is very different from the propaganda of Bitcoin."
▌Trump : Bitcoin mining is the "last line of defense" against CBDC
Bitcoin mining stocks generally rose on Wednesday after former U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Bitcoin mining is the “last line of defense” against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and stressed that Bitcoin should be mined in the United States.
TeraWulf shares rose nearly 20% to $4.13 before retreating to $3.96, about 14% higher than the previous day's close. MicroStrategy and Hive Digital Technologies stocks rose about 7% and 8%, respectively, and Iris Energy rose about 3%.
▌Biden campaign in talks to accept cryptocurrency donations through Coinbase Commerce
U.S. President Joe Biden’s campaign is in discussions with cryptocurrency industry players about accepting cryptocurrency donations through Coinbase Commerce, according to people familiar with the matter. Coinbase Commerce, a payment service that allows merchants to accept dozens of cryptocurrencies, already facilitates crypto donations for Republican candidate Donald Trump’s campaign, which began accepting digital currency contributions last month.
According to anonymous sources, the discussion is the latest effort by the Biden campaign to explore how to win over cryptocurrency supporters before the election. One source said the Biden team may be seeking sponsorship through well-funded cryptocurrency supporters. A source who works with politicians and crypto industry leaders said: "They are looking at the problems in the crypto industry and trying to find quick wins to show that they support the industry. They want to show that they are not the enemy."
▌Yesterday IBIT transaction volume exceeded US$1 billion
According to HODL15Capital's monitoring, data from the US spot Bitcoin ETF yesterday (June 12) showed that there was no inflow or outflow of funds into Grayscale GBTC.
In addition, IBIT's trading volume exceeded $1 billion yesterday.
▌ CryptoQuant: Bitcoin transfers from mining pools to exchanges this week reached a two-month high
Transfers from Bitcoin (BTC) mining pools to exchanges hit a two-month high this week as BTC hovered around $70,000, according to a report from CryptoQuant. Bitcoin halving has led to a drop in daily mining revenue, and miners are looking to sell Bitcoin through over-the-counter (OTC) platforms to make a profit. On June 10, miners sold at least 1,200 Bitcoins, the highest daily volume in two months. Marathon Digital has sold 1,400 Bitcoins worth $98 million since the beginning of June. The report added that miners' daily revenue is $35 million, down 55% from the peak of $78 million in March.
Important economic developments
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 99.4%
According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 99.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by August is 91.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.1.
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 87.6%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 87.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 12.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 29.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 62.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 8.2%.
▌Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit record closing highs for four consecutive trading days
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed with mixed gains and losses, with the Nasdaq up 0.34%, the S&P 500 up 0.23%, and the Dow down 0.17%. Among them, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 continued to hit record closing highs for four consecutive trading days. Large technology stocks rose and fell alternately, Nvidia rose more than 3%, Tesla rose more than 2%, Apple, Microsoft, and Netflix rose slightly; Amazon and Google fell more than 1%, and Meta fell slightly. Among them, Apple's closing total market value was 3.29 trillion US dollars, surpassing Microsoft's 3.28 trillion US dollars, regaining the top spot in the U.S. stock market. Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft all continued to hit new closing highs.
Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Jinse Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment philosophy and be sure to raise your risk awareness.
