The trend of the cryptocurrency market today can be said to be extremely bleak. Bitcoin has fallen below $66,000 several times, and Ethereum has also fallen below the $3,500 mark several times. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at $65,472 and Ethereum is quoted at $3,524. Both major cryptocurrencies fell by about 1% today.
Most investors believe that regulatory crackdowns are the main reason for the decline in cryptocurrencies. Increasing regulatory scrutiny and stricter regulations may reduce investor confidence in cryptocurrencies, leading to a large-scale sell-off in the market; if the global economy deteriorates significantly or a larger financial crisis breaks out, this will also lead to a large-scale sell-off of cryptocurrencies. When prices reach unsustainable levels, there is usually a significant pullback, which is a natural correction of profit-taking and market saturation.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
Currently, the DIF line and DEA line of MACD are both running below the 0 axis, and the two lines show signs of converging, which shows that the price of Bitcoin is still in a bearish trend, but the downward momentum has weakened; although the MACD histogram is red, it is gradually shortening, which means that the bearish force is increasing again.
Judging from the KDJ indicator, the K-line value and the D-line value are both below 50, which are at a relatively low level, while the J-line value has appeared in the oversold area. In the short term, there is a possibility of a rebound.
Judging from the Bollinger Band indicator, the current price of Bitcoin is hovering around the 4H level middle line (66215), indicating that the middle line provides support for the price. If the price can effectively break through the middle line, the next step will be to move closer to the upper line (66975).
Bitcoin one-hour chart
Currently, the DIF line and DEA line of MACD are running below the 0 axis, and the DIF line is gradually moving away from the DEA line, indicating that the downward momentum is relatively strong. The MACD red bar chart has been enlarged, indicating that the short-selling force is still increasing and the price may continue to fall in the short term.
From the KDJ indicator, the K, D, and J line values are all at low levels. The K line value and the D line have a downward trend, but the J line value is close to the oversold area. It is possible to fluctuate near the low level for a period of time. However, if the K line value and the D line value cross upward at a low level, then a rebound will occur.
Judging from the Bollinger Band indicator, the current price has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Band and is approaching the lower track, which means that the market is still in a weak state, but we need to pay attention to the lower track support level (65078). If the decline does not break this position, then the rebound mode will be initiated.
Comprehensive analysis: In the 1-hour chart, although there are signs of rebound in the short term, the 4-hour chart shows that the overall trend is still weak, and the strength of the short-term rebound may be limited. Before the price clearly stands on the middle track of the Bollinger Band and the MACD fast and slow lines do not cross upward, the market may still be dominated by shocks or weakness. Investors should pay close attention to the key support level of 65078. If it is effectively broken, it may continue to decline; if it is supported at this position, it may rebound in the short term.
To sum up, the following suggestions are given for reference
Long on Bitcoin around 65100-65300, target 66700-67000, defense 64800.
Writing time: (2024-06-18, 00:10)
