When will the Ethereum spot ETF be approved for listing by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)? The market is paying close attention to the progress of the S-1 registration statement document. On the evening of June 21, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas released a total of 8 Ethereum Ethereum spot ETF applicant, and reiterated that July 2 will be the issuance date of the Ethereum spot ETF.
Bitcoin ETFs have given many new buyers the opportunity to allocate Bitcoin into their portfolios, allowing Bitcoin prices to rise significantly. Since BlackRock submitted its application for the Bitcoin ETF, the price of Bitcoin was approximately US$25,000. Today, the rate of return of Bitcoin has reached 2.6 times. Will the Ethereum ETF further push up the price of Ethereum after it is approved?
Andrew Kang: Ethereum ETF has limited influence
Regarding future price rise predictions, Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, expressed a conservative view today (23rd). He pointed out that compared with Bitcoin, the influence of Ethereum ETF appears to be relatively limited. Even Ethereum’s return reached 2.1x during the same period, but this is not significant enough compared to Bitcoin’s gains.
Looking at the bottom of this market cycle, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have returned 4.0 times. This shows that Ethereum has performed well during the market recovery period, but its potential upside still needs further observation.
He believes that the key to judging how much upside an Ethereum ETF can provide will be whether Ethereum can develop innovative ways to improve the economy. If Ethereum can achieve significant breakthroughs at the technical and application levels, its upside potential will be even greater. On the other hand, if effective economic improvement methods cannot be found, its upside potential will be limited.
ETH could fall to $2,400 after ETF launch
According to estimates by Eric Balchunas, Ethereum's market traffic may be only 10% of Bitcoin's. This means that in 6 months, the true net purchase flow of Ethereum is expected to be $500 million, and the net flow will be $1.5 billion.
Andrew Kang's personal prediction is that the Ethereum ETF market will be about 15% of Bitcoin's market flow, that is, a real net purchase volume of US$840 million and a net flow of US$2.52 billion.
Under an optimistic scenario, the Ethereum ETF’s true net purchases could reach $1.5 billion, with reported net flows of $4.5 billion, which is equivalent to 30% of Bitcoin market flows. In either case, true net purchases remain well below the ETF's derivatives flows prior to launch, which reached $2.4 billion in advance. (Meaning that the expectations and reactions of ETFs have been reflected in the price in advance)
Before the launch of the ETF, ETH was expected to trade between $3,000 and $3,800; after the launch of the ETF, Andrew Kang predicted a price between $2,400 and $3,000. It is worth mentioning that Andrew Kang also said that everything still depends on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rises to $100,000 at the end of 2024 or early 2025, this may push ETH to a record high, but the ratio of ETH/BTC will be smaller. Low.
