As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the cryptocurrency market, especially the meme coin sector closely tied to political events, has shown significant growth and activity. Tokens associated with former President Donald Trump, such as TRUMP, MAGA, and TRUMP2024, have particularly stood out in the market. This is primarily due to Trump's recent proactive measures in supporting the cryptocurrency field, which have garnered widespread support.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party and current President Biden are quickly adjusting their stance on cryptocurrencies. To secure election success, they are beginning to embrace an area they previously resisted. The potential and influence of cryptocurrencies have evidently become an important force that candidates cannot afford to ignore.
The recent market rebound has also been strongly stimulated by the assassination attempt on Trump. According to Adam, an analyst at Greeks.live, this week has been relatively calm in terms of macro events. However, with the U.S. and German governments halting their cryptocurrency sell-offs, the crypto market quickly rebounded, and overall sentiment improved significantly. Data shows that Trump-related meme coins have generally surged, with TRUMP rising by 68% within 24 hours, and MAGA (TRUMP) and MAGA Hat increasing by 30.9% and 30.7%, respectively. Additionally, the meme coin "Trump Assassination Attempt" on Solana (FIGHT) saw a 4256% increase in 24 hours, with its market value surpassing $2.5 million.
More importantly, data from Polymarket indicates that with Trump in good condition after the assassination attempt, his probability of winning the election has risen to 70%, a new high, far surpassing Biden's 15%. This has undoubtedly further fueled market enthusiasm and investment confidence in Trump-related cryptocurrencies.
These phenomena suggest that Trump-related tokens, such as the Trump series, are becoming a focal point in the crypto market. The following will delve into the logic and market impact behind this trend.
Trump Survives Assassination Attempt, Election Prospects Soar
On July 13, former U.S. President Trump was shot during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Fortunately, he was not seriously injured. This incident not only caused a stir in the political arena but also had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. As Trump’s health stabilized, his supporters and the market quickly reacted, leading to a sharp increase in the prices of Trump-related meme coins, reflecting the market's confidence and expectations for Trump.
Shortly before this incident, the Republican National Committee released the draft platform for the 2024 election, explicitly supporting the cryptocurrency industry and vowing to end the "unlawful crackdown" on cryptocurrencies. This draft platform garnered widespread attention, especially within the cryptocurrency community. The Republican Party promised to defend the rights of Bitcoin miners and allow cryptocurrency holders to self-custody their assets, opposing the creation of a U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). These policies are seen as part of the "Trump version" of America's future policy blueprint, aiming to attract more voter support.
Meanwhile, Trump has actively engaged in cryptocurrency-related activities, strengthening his influence in this field. On June 12, Trump stated on his Truth Social account that he hoped Bitcoin mining activities would remain in the United States to enhance national control and economic influence over cryptocurrencies. That evening, Trump held a meeting dubbed the "Presidential-Level Bitcoin Mining Roundtable" at Mar-a-Lago with representatives from several Bitcoin mining companies. Attendees included executives from CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, and Marathon Digital. During the meeting, Trump expressed his support for Bitcoin mining and promised to advocate for miners from the White House.
These positive policies and statements quickly reflected in the market. With favorable news related to Trump continuing to emerge, the market for related meme coins has become exceptionally active. For instance, according to CoinGecko data, the TRUMP token surged by as much as 68% within 24 hours, while MAGA and MAGA Hat increased by 30.9% and 30.7% respectively. Additionally, the meme coin FIGHT on Solana, themed around the "Trump Assassination Event," saw a staggering 4256% increase within 24 hours, pushing its market value past $2.5 million. These figures indicate a positive market response to support for Trump.
Trump's shift towards cryptocurrency policies is not just reflected in public statements but also in specific fundraising activities. In early June, Trump attended an event in San Francisco organized by tech venture capitalists, raising $12 million. Attendees included Coinbase executives and Gemini co-founders, the Winklevoss brothers, among other cryptocurrency industry leaders. Tickets for the event were sold out, with the highest price being $500,000 per couple, demonstrating strong support from the crypto community for Trump.
These actions and market reactions suggest that Trump is leveraging the emerging field of cryptocurrency to consolidate his campaign advantage and attract more voters and financial support. As the election approaches, the cryptocurrency market will continue to be a significant battleground in political strategy.
The surge in meme coin prices related to the election concept has benefited PoliticFi?
The recent Trump assassination attempt has sparked dramatic fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, particularly notable in meme coins associated with Trump. However, this meme coin frenzy isn't solely due to Trump; it has also been fueled by social media and celebrity endorsements.
Support from Trump's followers and market responses has been swift. Following news of Trump's stable health condition after being shot at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, meme coin prices associated with him surged significantly. For example, the TRUMP token rose by 68% in 24 hours, while MAGA and MAGA Hat increased by 30.9% and 30.7% respectively. However, as news of Trump's discharge from the hospital spread, these meme coin prices retreated somewhat, showing the market's sensitive response to short-term events. CoinGecko data indicates that STRUMP dropped by 15.8% within one hour.
Another major driver behind this speculation is widespread discussion and support from celebrities and social media. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, one of the early tech giants to publicly support Trump, not only voiced his support multiple times on social media but also likened Trump to great presidents like Roosevelt.
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, broke his long social media silence after Trump's shooting to express support. CEOs such as Satya Nadella of Microsoft, Tim Cook of Apple, and Jeff Bezos of Amazon have also tweeted their support for Trump and condemnation of the violence.
However, not everyone believes Trump's support for cryptocurrency is sincere. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes pointed out in his blog "Hot Chick" that Trump's cryptocurrency-friendly attitude is more about winning votes than genuine support for cryptocurrencies. Hayes believes that many cryptocurrency experts and investors have been misled by Trump's statements, blindly donating to his campaign in hopes that Trump will stop suppressing cryptocurrencies, which he views as naive.
Meanwhile, billionaire Bill Ackman publicly announced his support for Trump, stating that this decision was made after careful consideration and extensive data analysis. Ackman's endorsement further fueled interest in meme coins related to Trump, even receiving retweets from Elon Musk. These endorsements undoubtedly intensified the speculation surrounding meme coins associated with Trump.
In summary, the speculation surrounding meme coins related to Trump has been driven not only by his statements and events but also by amplification from social media and celebrities. However, the volatility of the market and the risks of short-term speculation should not be overlooked, and investors should approach the market performance of these tokens with caution and rationality. Next, we will delve deeper into the market outlook and the underlying risk factors.
Trump's election is bound to benefit Bitcoin prices, and the future looks promising!
The Trump shooting incident not only ignited the meme coin market but also caused widespread fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, as well as in the gold and securities markets. Following the event, the price of Bitcoin soared rapidly, surpassing the $60,000 mark. This fluctuation indicates that political events are increasingly influencing the cryptocurrency market.
Firstly, the reaction in the cryptocurrency market was particularly evident. With Trump expressing support for cryptocurrencies, market sentiment soared, leading to significant short-term increases in related tokens such as TRUMP and MAGA. However, this upward trend also comes with high risk and volatility. In the short term, market movements driven by political discourse and celebrity effects may lead to significant fluctuations, and investors should proceed with caution.
The gold market was similarly affected. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold also experienced a certain increase following the Trump assassination attempt. The market's uncertainty and increased risk prompted investors to flock to gold as a safety hedge. However, the increase in gold prices was relatively stable, reflecting its enduring value as a safe-haven asset.
The securities market exhibited a more complex response. Following the Trump incident, the U.S. stock market experienced brief volatility, especially in industries closely related to Trump's policies, such as energy and cryptocurrency-related companies. Expectations of Trump potentially returning to power boosted the stocks of some companies, but overall market sentiment remained cautious.
Looking ahead, political events will continue to influence the cryptocurrency market. With the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaching, similar events may occur frequently, causing increased market volatility. Investors need to monitor political developments, allocate assets wisely, and diversify risks.
Overall, the Trump shooting incident highlights the profound impact of political events on financial markets. The cryptocurrency market, gold market, and securities market may continue to fluctuate in the short term due to these influences. In such an environment, investors should remain vigilant, closely monitor market dynamics, and make rational decisions.
