Dehydrated Poster: BTC Bullish Trend Confirmed

Highlights of this issue :

1. ETF will push Ethereum above $5,000

2. Ton ecosystem becomes a new frontier for Fomo

1. Crypto_Painter: How big is the net selling pressure in Mentougou?

The voting results are out! If you are a creditor of Mentougou, how would you choose to deal with the 10 BTC after receiving it?

A total of 1,422 people voted, and the voting time was 24 hours, including:

1. The proportion of those who choose to continue holding and not sell at all is 21.2%;

2. Choose to sell in small quantities, and the proportion of most continued holdings is 16.1%;

3. 25.1% of investors chose to sell more than half of their holdings and allocate other assets;

4. 37.6% of respondents chose to sell all their stocks to clear their inventory.

Based on this data, we can roughly calculate how many of the 90,000 BTC that Mentougou will pay to small creditors will become the actual market supply;

1. 21.2% of people choose to continue holding, so their potential supply is: 90000 * 21.2% * 0% = 0;

2. 16.1% of people choose to sell 10% to 30%. We take the middle number 20%, so their potential supply is: 90000 * 16.1% * 20% = 2898;

3. 25.1% of people choose to sell more than 50%, so we calculate it as 60%. Their potential supply is: 90000 * 25.1% * 60% = 13554;

4. 37.6% of people choose to sell all, and their potential supply is: 90000 * 37.6% * 1 = 33840.

Therefore, the actual selling pressure that these 90,000 small creditors can bring to the market is: 2898 + 13554 + 33840 = 50292 BTC;

Note that the number here is no longer the potential supply, but the actual selling pressure calculated based on the voting results, which is the actual chips to be sold;

This scale is comparable to the previous selling pressure by the German government in terms of total volume, but considering that the distribution by the exchange is likely not to be completed all at once, but to be distributed gradually over 1 to 3 months;

Based on the distribution cycles of different lengths, we can derive the average net supply that this actual supply brings to the market every day;

If the distribution cycle is within 1 week, the average daily selling pressure is about 7,184 coins;

The distribution cycle is 1 month, so the average daily selling pressure is around 1676.4;

The distribution cycle is 3 months, so the average daily selling pressure is around 558.8;

Next, let’s take a look at the current market demand;

According to the current 30-day average net inflow of ETF funds of US$52 million and the average daily increase of stablecoin market value of US$60 million, the net liquidity increase in the current market may be around US$110 million per day;

Among them, about 30% of the net inflow of ETFs was used for arbitrage of CME futures contracts. According to the current BTC dominance rate of 55%, 45% of the inflow of stablecoins was also absorbed by other small-cap altcoins and ETFs.

Therefore, the average daily net demand in the current market should be: 5200 * 70% + 6000 * 55% = 3640 + 3300 = 69.4 million US dollars;

Based on the recent average price of BTC at $60,000, these net demands can bring an average of 1,156.6 additional BTC per day.

Then the conclusion comes out:

As long as the compensation distribution cycle of Mentougou is greater than (50292 / 1156.6 = 43.48) days, the net demand of the market can fully bear this part of the linear selling pressure. If the distribution cycle is lower than the threshold of 43, the market demand will not be enough to cover this part of the net supply, thus causing the price to fall.

In other words, too fast a distribution (1 week to 1 month) will lead to a short-term increase in the supply of the disk and a short spot trend similar to the German government's selling;

As long as the linear distribution is maintained and the cycle is long (about 43 days), the price of BTC can still maintain an upward trend;

The best case scenario is that the distribution cycle actually takes 3 months, then this part of the selling pressure will have almost no significant impact on the market;

So next you can pay attention to the specific distribution cycle forecast on social media, and combine this distribution speed with the comparison between 43 days to formulate a short-term and medium-term trading plan;

It is worth mentioning that if the price of BTC is rising when the distribution starts, then this part of the supply is likely to choose to wait and see for the time being, after all, everyone hopes to sell at a higher price. If the price of BTC is falling when the distribution starts, then this part of the supply will cause an accelerated decline;

In any case, 52,000 of these 90,000 BTC will limit the upper limit of BTC's price increase in the future and increase the lower limit of price decline;

Finally, all calculations in this article are statistical estimates based on social media voting results. They do not represent actual data, but are more like estimates. Therefore, please do not worry about the accuracy of the specific data. The error may be large. It is only for reference in the medium and long term trends.

2. Phyrex (@Phyrex_Ni): Market speculation after the launch of Ethereum ETF

(Based on the current situation, how do you think the price of ETH will change between now and when the ETF officially starts trading, and in the early stages of ETF trading?)

This should also be a concern of many friends. From my personal point of view, #ETH may show signs of Sell The News. When #BTC first fell back by about 26%, it took about two weeks. But this time, I think the ETH's callback rate will be lower than BTC, and the callback time will also be lower than BTC.

This is not just a random thought. The URPD data released yesterday showed that a large number of investors actually miss the pump out on the rise of BTC. It was also because of Sell The News that a large number of friends believed that the ETF market was over. In fact, we all know that this is just the beginning.

Therefore, I believe that the market will learn and improve. If you suffer a loss once, you may not suffer a loss a second time. Of course, this is just my personal speculation and does not mean that it will definitely happen.

3.qinbafrank (@qinbafrank): The follow-up cannot be completely dependent on the reversal. Emotions may rise but may also ebb in a short period of time.

Each wave of market adjustment is in two dimensions: time and space. Either the space is in place or the time is in place. In 23 years, each wave of large-scale adjustments in the BTC has been between 20% and 25%:

Silicon Valley Bank’s bankruptcy in March 2024 (25,000 to 19,000);

From mid-April to mid-June 2023 (31,000 to 24,000), from early July to August 2023 (31,000 to 24,000, with a second visit in September),

Mid-January 24 (49,000 to 38,000)

Two waves from April this year to now (73,000 to 56,000, 71,000 to May 3)

This is a rule of magnitude and a rule of duration. Since the bear market in 2022, each wave of adjustment and decline has not lasted more than two months, and a large-scale adjustment (Double Top pattern) has not lasted more than four months. When the time is right, it will either be a big rebound or a real reversal. You can take a closer look at the K-line.

Previously, we talked about the adjustment since 73,000 in mid-March, which was very similar to the second and third quarters of 2023. In mid-June, we thought that BTC would reach the low of 56,000 in early May. In early July, it actually fell below 56,000. The magnitude was not accurately judged (in fact, BTC fell 27% in this wave), but the time judgment was OK. Sometimes the time dimension is also a very important rule

As for the follow-up, we cannot completely rely on a reversal, although the market sentiment is good: it is driven by the interest rate cut and the expectation of Trump's victory. However, the sentiment may be high and may ebb for a short time. After the expectation of interest rate cut is over, will the news be sold? I think it is possible. It has been discussed before that this year is more like 1995 and 2019, when the economic situation was good and the Fed cut interest rates, but the first interest rate cut at that time was after the market had a small level adjustment and then went up again. And if we look at the second and third quarters of last year, after hitting the bottom in August, there was a second test in September.

Just keep taking it one step at a time.

Embers: A smart whale started his third BTC investment

The smart money whale that made a profit of $31.06M through two BTC swing investments in the past 11 months started buying BTC again today: 245 BTC ($15.97M) were withdrawn from Binance 2 hours ago. It should be optimistic about the subsequent market and started the third round of BTC investment.

His previous two rounds of BTC band situation:

1⃣2023/8-2023/11 hoarded 717.6 BTC at an average price of $29,389, and then sold it at an average price of $41,986 in 2023/12, making a profit of $9.04M (+43%);

2⃣Accumulated 1,181 BTC at an average price of $48,877 from 2024/2 to 2024/5, and then sold them at an average price of $67,528 from 2024/5 to 2024/6, making a profit of $22.02M (+38%).

According to Coinmarketcap data, the top five currencies in terms of 24-hour popularity are BTC, MEOW, NOT, ANDY, and ID. According to Coingecko data, in the crypto market, the top five sectors with the highest growth are LaunchZone, VBC Ventures Portfolio, Play To Earn, DeFiance Capital Portfolio, and Gaming.

Focus: Meme turns to Ton ecosystem as a new frontier for Fomo

With the recent market recovery, market speculation has risen again, and the most noteworthy one is the TON ecosystem. It is worth mentioning that the Meme token, which was previously popular on Solana, has recently become popular on the TON ecosystem. In addition to the previous NOT token, Hamster Kombat, Catizen and DOGS have also been popular recently. Once these projects were launched, they received widespread attention.

Hamster Kombat

Hamster Kombat is a TON ecosystem game of Tap to Earn that simulates the role of a CEO of a cryptocurrency exchange. Players collect game points by clicking on the hamster on the screen. At the same time, Hamster Kombat provides a variety of ways for players to obtain rewards, and encourages players to unlock more rewards through community interaction and cooperation. For example, players can obtain extra points and increase the speed of obtaining points by purchasing and synthesizing special cards, daily check-ins, following official social media accounts, and recommending friends. According to official information, Hamster Kombat currently has more than 200 million registered users, more than 48 million Telegram fans, more than 31.5 million YouTube subscribers, and more than 11 million Twitter fans. It can be said that Hamster Kombat has a super large user base.

Catizen

Catizen is a cat-raising chain game on the TON ecosystem, created by the Pluto Studio team and the first game on its GameFi platform. At the intersection of casual games and breakthrough innovations, Catizen launched the "PLAY-TO-AIRDROP" mode. "The user's journey is not just a game, but a treasure hunt for tokens in the vast cat universe." With its cute cat image and unique gameplay, Catizen quickly attracted a large number of players and continued to grow at an astonishing rate, with nearly 20 million registrations in just 2 months. According to official information, as of June 23, the total number of users on the Catizen chain exceeded 1.25 million.

Pixelverse

Pixelverse is a cyberpunk-themed entertainment studio and game where players enter the game as freelancers and can participate in quests, PvE battles, craft and upgrade robots, and fight other players in the arena. Pixelverse aims to create a low-barrier game that introduces users to Web 3, provides true ownership of in-game assets and rewards loyal players, while creating an immersive gaming experience for Web 2 gamers.

DOGS

After several popular projects such as Hamster Kombat and Catizen, DOGS suddenly became popular recently. The black and white dog image of the DOGS project was inspired by Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram. He drew the iconic dog Spotty at a charity auction to support an orphanage. According to official Telegram information, DOGS is not an ordinary commemorative coin. The team brought the tradition of Spotty into the world of cryptocurrency to create a fun, community-oriented and unique cryptocurrency. Driven by the booming TON ecosystem, the DOGS project caters to the lack of representative Meme images in the current ecosystem. By airdropping tokens to Telegram users, it attracted more than 1 million subscribers in just one day, and the daily content reading volume exceeded one million, and its growth rate was amazing.

Bitwise: ETFs will push Ethereum above $5,000

Everyone wants to know what will happen to the price of Ethereum after the launch of the spot ETP (note: ETF is a type of ETP). My prediction is that the inflow of funds into the Ethereum ETP will drive the price to a new all-time high of over $5,000.

Of course, this won’t happen immediately, and I think there may be some volatility in the first few weeks as funds from the $11 billion Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) flow out after the conversion to an ETP. But I believe that Ethereum will hit new highs by the end of the year. If the flow exceeds expectations, the price of Ethereum may be higher.

1. Supply and demand determine everything

The best way to estimate the potential impact of ETP issuance on Ethereum price is to analyze supply and demand. ETP will not change Ethereum fundamentals, but it does bring new sources of demand.

Consider what happened to the price of Bitcoin after the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETP in January. Since that day, Bitcoin ETPs have purchased more than twice as many Bitcoins as miners have produced:

Bitcoin purchased with ETP: 263,965

Bitcoins produced by miners: 129,181

So, the price of Bitcoin is up. Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETP on January 11, Bitcoin has risen by about 25%. If we count from October 2023, when the market starts pricing in the Bitcoin ETP in advance, Bitcoin has risen by more than 110%.

Will we see the same impact on Ethereum? Yes, I think the impact will likely be even greater.

2. The impact on Ethereum exceeds that on Bitcoin

As I’ve written before, I think the new Ethereum ETPs will attract billions of dollars and that the money flowing into these new ETPs will have a much bigger impact than Bitcoin for three reasons.

Reason 1: ETH’s short-term inflation rate is low

When Bitcoin ETP was launched, the inflation rate of the Bitcoin network was 1.7%. In other words, the Bitcoin network produced approximately 328,500 BTC per year, which was approximately $16 billion at the price at the time. This means that we need to buy $16 billion worth of Bitcoin every year to maintain its price.

In contrast, Ethereum’s inflation rate over the past year has been exactly 0%: there were 120 million ETH a year ago, and there are still 120 million ETH today. This is because, while a small amount of ETH is generated every day, users consume ETH using applications on Ethereum (from stablecoins to tokenized funds). Over the past year, these two forces have reached a balance.

Lots of new demand meeting 0% new supply? Going a step further, if activity on Ethereum increases, consumption of ETH will also increase, which is another organic demand lever that works in favor of investors.

Reason 2: Unlike Bitcoin miners, Ethereum stakers do not need to sell

The second major difference is that Bitcoin miners typically have to sell the Bitcoin they produce, while Ethereum stakers do not.

Bitcoin mining is expensive, requiring high-end computer chips and large amounts of energy, so miners typically sell most of the bitcoins they mine to cover operating costs.

Ethereum does not rely on mining, but instead uses a system called "proof of stake." In the proof-of-stake system, users stake ETH as collateral to ensure that they process transactions accurately and truthfully. In return for processing transactions correctly, stakers receive new ETH as a reward.

A key difference between Bitcoin mining and Ethereum staking is that there are no significant direct costs to staking. Therefore, Ethereum stakers are not forced to sell the ETH they earn. Even if Ethereum's inflation rate rises above 0%, I don't think stakers will face significant selling pressure.

In the short term, Ethereum’s daily forced selling volume is significantly less than Bitcoin’s.

Reason 3: 28% of ETH has been staked and cannot enter the market

Staking has another effect: when you stake ETH, you lock it up for a period of time. During this period, you cannot withdraw ETH and sell it. Currently, 28% of all ETH is staked, which means it is effectively off the market.

In addition, another 13% of ETH is locked in decentralized financial smart contracts, such as as collateral in lending markets. This leads to a further reduction in the amount of ETH on the market.

All things considered, about 40% of ETH is partially or completely off the market.

3. What does this mean?

As I mentioned above, I expect the new Ethereum ETP to be successful, attracting $15 billion in new capital within the first 18 months of its launch. Ethereum is currently trading around $3,400, just 29% below its all-time high. If the ETP is as successful as I expect, new highs for Ethereum are almost certain.

BeinCrypto: BTC bullish trend has been confirmed

1. Major players stop selling Bitcoin

In addition to the heat map, another data point supporting the price increase is the massive inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs this week. The massive inflow of funds into these products played a huge role in Bitcoin's surge to all-time highs in March.

The lack of liquidity in this area was also a key factor that led to the downturn in the second quarter (Q2). Therefore, if more funds continue to flow into ETFs, BTC may continue to rise.

Reacting to this development, analyst Timothy Peterson believes that BTC could soon reach $71,000.

“Cumulative net ETF flows hit a new high last week. This is the second indicator I have that puts Bitcoin at $71K. This marks 6 consecutive days of positive inflows totaling over $1 billion. This does not include the huge inflow that may come today,” he said on X.

From an on-chain perspective, the cumulative trend score indicates that Bitcoin has exited the distribution phase. The trend score ranges from 0 to 1 and provides insight into the behavior of large market entities.

A Cumulative Trend Score rating close to 0 means that market participants, on average, are selling.

This can be seen from the trend from April to June. However, at press time, the score is 0.55, indicating that the scale of token purchases on the chain is increasing.

2. Bullish trend has been confirmed

According to the daily chart, Bitcoin price confirmed a bullish trend after breaking above the 20 (blue) and 50 (yellow) EMAs.

EMA stands for Exponential Moving Average and shows the trend direction over a period of time. If the EMA is above the price, the trend is bearish.

However, since the opposite is happening, this is bullish for BTC, indicating that the price can move higher. If sustained, the next price of Bitcoin could be around $68,235, as shown below.

In addition, the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) is positive. CVD shows the net difference between buy and sell volumes. When it is negative, it means that the amount of BTC sold is higher than the amount bought.

Therefore, the positive value means that market participants have been buying more Bitcoin since July 13. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also reiterates this.

MACD is a technical tool that displays the relationship between the 12 EMA (blue) and the 26 EMA (orange) to measure trend momentum and price acceleration. If the reading is negative, the trend is bearish and prices are likely to fall.

However, at press time, the MACD rating was in the green zone, suggesting that Bitcoin price could continue to rise.

In conclusion, if large entities or whales start distributing tokens again, the potential price rally could be invalidated. If this is the case, Bitcoin could drop to $60,899.