Author: Climber, Jinse Finance
With the convening of the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, the price of BTC has continued to rise. During this period, especially after Trump's speech, the overall crypto market has rebounded significantly. This can't help but make the "Trump deal" that had been extinguished before continue again, becoming a reference for investors to lay out.
"Trump trading" generally refers to a series of investment operations made by investors based on Trump's policy expectations, including long cryptocurrencies. The logic behind this is to bet on the impact of Trump's election on different asset classes. Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Conference undoubtedly strengthened the confidence of crypto investors. As of writing, the price of BTC is approaching the $70,000 mark, with a tendency to surpass the previous high.
However, as Harris' campaign has once again plunged the US presidential race into confusion, questions such as whether Trump's crypto effect is really effective and how the crypto market will perform in the second half of the year have once again emerged, and analysts from major institutions have given their opinions.
Trump’s New Crypto Manifesto
On July 28, Trump said in a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference that if elected, he would fully retain the government-pledged Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and would not allow any selling.
In addition, Trump also made clear his views on several important cryptographic opinions. For example:
The reason for participating in Bitcoin 2024 is to keep the United States at the forefront of the cryptocurrency space. The United States will become the global cryptocurrency capital and the world's Bitcoin superpower.
Bitcoin is a "miracle of cooperation and human achievement". If we don't embrace cryptocurrency and Bitcoin technology, other nations will dominate. Bitcoin represents freedom, sovereignty, and money that is free from government coercion and control.
He would fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on his first day in office.
Bitcoin does not threaten the dollar, the actions of the current US government are threatening the dollar.
The market value of Bitcoin will surpass that of gold in the future. Since its birth, the market value of Bitcoin has been increasing, and it has become the ninth largest asset in the world by market value. It will soon surpass silver and will surpass gold in the future.
Once again, a promise was made to commute the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.
The above remarks are extremely flattering for Bitcoin and the entire crypto industry, not only regarding BTC as an asset that can surpass gold, but also touting it as a national strategic level. Judging from the face value of this "blank check", it is undoubtedly huge for the crypto industry.
Influenced by the Bitcoin Conference and Trump’s speech, many well-known institutions and KOLs have taken a bullish view on Bitcoin and have given their own predictions.
Michael Saylor, founder of Micro Strategy, first gave a fantastic future price of Bitcoin. He said that as the adoption rate grows, Bitcoin's characteristics as digital capital may make the price of each Bitcoin exceed $13 million by 2045. In a bear market, the price of Bitcoin may be $3 million. But in a bull market, the price of Bitcoin may reach $49 million.
Asset management company Vaneck predicts that by 2050, the price of Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin, becoming a global medium of exchange and reserve currency. 10x Research also expects Bitcoin to eventually break new highs.
The positive impact of Trump's speech on the crypto market is also reflected in traders' strategies. Before his speech, Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, mentioned in an analysis report that Trump's speech may push up BTC prices, and futures contract traders will not choose to short Bitcoin.
In addition, in response to Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Conference, Hong Kong SAR Legislative Council member Wu Jiezhuang posted on the X platform that Bitcoin and Web3 are important nodes in the development of globalization, and global common development should be encouraged. In the future, Bitcoin can be considered to be included in the strategic fiscal reserve under compliance conditions.
This shows that while Trump's speech brought positive expectations to investors, it also elevated the financial value attributes of Bitcoin to the level of international competition.
The second phase of the bull market has begun?
Although many of Trump's related MEME concept coins fell after his speech, the price of BTC rose. Moreover, since the Bitcoin Conference, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a net inflow of holdings for several days. This shows that the crypto market seems to be gradually entering an upward trend.
Pantera Capital previously predicted that the crypto market was entering the second phase of the bull market, due to the positive shift in political and regulatory attitudes towards cryptocurrencies. Therefore, as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are increasingly recognized by the mainstream, the next wave of crypto bull market may not be impossible.
The recent bullish and positive signals are as follows:
Nansen analyst: Investors should increase risk and not ignore the current positive signals and market narratives, including the Fed's expectations of rate cuts, the lead of US presidential candidate Trump in the polls, and the Bitcoin momentum indicator above the buying threshold. In addition, the inflow of funds to spot Bitcoin ETFs is increasing, and the market value of stablecoins is also accelerating, indicating an increase in net inflows on the chain.
Wintermute: The stablecoin market value exceeds $164 billion, supporting the bullish outlook of the market. The increase in stablecoin supply indicates that funds are being deposited into the on-chain ecosystem to generate economic activity, which ultimately promotes positive on-chain growth.
Financial Times: US Vice President Harris' campaign team is seeking to restart contact with Bitcoin and encryption teams. The team said that the move to reconnect with the cryptocurrency industry is mainly to establish a positive relationship with the encryption industry and pave the way for a reasonable regulatory framework.
Founder of CryptoQuant: This round of Bitcoin bull market may last until mid-2025.
Trump has discussed cryptocurrency policy with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, according to people familiar with the matter.
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis said she will introduce a bill in early August to allow the U.S. Treasury to purchase 1 million bitcoins (worth about $69 billion) within five years to offset the impact of the depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
Bitcoin Magazine CEO announced that he would give Trump a bitcoin mined in 2013, making him an official bitcoin holder.
Cryptocurrency intelligence platform Santiment noted that Bitcoin's weighted sentiment index has risen to its highest level since March 2023. Bitcoin has risen 20% in 3 weeks, making traders more bullish than at the beginning of the month.
Glassnode: Previously, when BTC prices fell to the $53,000 area, it led to a meaningful deleveraging event, and many long-biased traders were liquidated near the lows, but the subsequent rebound in prices was also very strong, returning most short-term holders to an unrealized profit state, which provided much-needed financial relief for the net positive capital inflows in recent weeks.
CoinGecko: 43.7% of survey participants expect Bitcoin to break through $100,000 in this cycle.
On-chain analyst Ali said that data showed that the Bitcoin Hash Ribbon indicator showed that miners' capitulation had ended, indicating that Bitcoin price momentum may turn from negative to positive.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has been raised to 85.7%. Analysts pointed out that the market will usher in a wave of interest rate cuts in September.
From the above information, we can see that many events and opinions indicate that there is a possibility of a new round of bull market in the future of Bitcoin and the crypto market. However, investors still need to pay attention to the existence of potential black swans and gray rhinos.
The main negative factors include Mt. Gox's debt repayment, Trump's defeat in the election, Harris's ambiguous stance on encryption, tightening of regulations again, and the decline of US stocks.
summary
Before the Bitcoin Conference, BTC and Altcoin generally fell back, and the official approval of the US Ethereum spot ETF did not boost the crypto market. However, with the opening of the conference, especially Trump's speech, the attention of all parties was successfully focused on the crypto industry again. In terms of the current increase in Bitcoin, this event undoubtedly has a positive effect.
Many institutions are confident about the future of the crypto bull market. If Trump is elected, then coupled with the crypto cycle, BTC may be able to create another miracle of returns. However, investors should also avoid blind optimism. Preserving the principal is the first principle at all times.
