Market Trends
In the past week, BTC has shown a fluctuating upward trend. Due to the continuous net inflow of funds and Trump's positive speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference, BTC briefly reached a weekly high of 70,079 USDT on the evening of the 29th, but then it was weak and returned to the range of 66,000. In general, against the backdrop of anxiety in the US stock market and the compensation of Mt.Gox, the price trend of BTC is relatively strong.
The reaction on the first day of the ETH ETF listing was relatively flat, affected by the large outflow of Grayscale ETHE. In the first four days of listing, the total net outflow of 9 ETH ETFs was US$163 million, and ETH gave up the expected increase of the ETF landing. However, according to the current market performance, it is not ruled out that the ETH ETF took the same script as the BTC ETF, with an initial decline after the launch of the ETF, and then the price and ETF net flow increased simultaneously.
Hot spot analysis
The market awaits the earnings reports of large technology stocks, and the three major U.S. indexes have mixed performances
Affected by the upcoming financial reports of large technology stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, the U.S. stock market is in a state of anxiety. According to the latest closing information on July 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly, the S&P 500 rose slightly, and the Nasdaq turned from rising to falling during the session and ended with a slight increase. Although the market is generally optimistic about the profitability of the S&P 500, with more large technology stocks reporting financial reports, market sentiment this week is still dominated by ups and downs. The list of companies that will announce financial reports this week is as follows: Microsoft (MSFT) (Tuesday), Meta (META) (Wednesday), Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) (Thursday). At the same time, Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to announce its financial report on August 28.
The Democratic Party changed its generals at the last minute. The young candidate Harris is closely following Trump in the polls, and the uncertainty of the election has increased.
After Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, the Democratic Party replaced him with a young candidate, Harris. Compared with Biden, Harris is more popular with voters. According to comprehensive poll data, Harris's support is close to Trump, with a percentage difference of single digits; according to Predict It data, the probability of a complete victory for the Republican Party has dropped from more than half to less than 50%.
The uncertainty of the election is increasing, which will continue to impact both the US stock market and the crypto market. It is recommended to pay close attention to Harris's selection of a running mate from August 19 to 22, the Democratic National Convention, and the next presidential debate, which may be held in mid-September.
Trump attended the Bitcoin conference and announced that BTC will be included in the national strategic reserve
Last week, Trump attended the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville and said in his speech that if he is elected president, he will establish a national strategic BTC reserve, and after taking office, the government will retain 100% of its Bitcoin and will not sell it, including assets previously confiscated by the judiciary. Trump also called on the audience not to sell Bitcoin. Trump's friendly attitude towards crypto assets has triggered a lot of discussion in the market (including in the political circle), and crypto-friendliness has become a key weapon in this election.
The weak CPI data released in July coupled with the expectation of interest rate cuts may lead to the rotation of small-cap stocks until November.
This round of small-cap stock rally may continue until the election. Small-cap stocks are sensitive to lower borrowing costs and have greater room to benefit from Trump's promised tax cuts and tariff increases, leading to a sharp rise in the small-cap market and a new record high. Based on the historical experience of Trump's candidacy in 2016, this round of small-cap stock rally has no strong support and is likely to end after the election.
Recommended layout
Based on the market trend of the past week and the fundamentals of the high volatility of the US stock market, the crypto market is likely to continue to fluctuate in the next week. Senior players may have completed their positions last week and are waiting for the release of subsequent positive news. In order to gain relatively stable returns in the volatile market, holding coins and waiting for a rise may be a good choice.
The three structured products of Dual Currency Investment, Snowball and Shark Fin allow users to earn high returns in volatile markets (if they can successfully judge the market trend).
The "snowball" product performs particularly well in a volatile market, that is, it is believed that the principal and interest can be obtained as long as the underlying asset does not fall below the knock-in line. Matrixport's snowball product is an American option, which can be exercised on any date after the purchase is successful, without worrying about the market changing unfavorably and being unable to exit in time. Snowballs have a "knock-in price" and a "knock-out price". When the snowball product you purchased fluctuates between these two prices, your income will be like a snowball rolling in the snow, rolling more and more.
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Reasonable use of "dual currency investment" can meet users' needs for profit-taking, buy the dips, and coin hoarding. If users believe that the market trend will be volatile, they can choose a dual currency product with a suitable period and the price fluctuates between the upper and lower thresholds, so that users can obtain higher returns; if users believe that the future will enter a stage of short-term decline and subsequent recovery, choosing a "buy low" product with a suitable period can not only buy the dips at a lower price, but also obtain financial management income; if users believe that the market trend will be an upward correction, choosing a "sell high" product has the opportunity to achieve a high point profit.
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Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, and other countries or regions where such offers or solicitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
