Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”，美联储本周维持利率不变的概率为 96.9%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 3.1%。 美联储到 9 月维持利率不变的概率为 0%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 87.7%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 12.0%，累计降息 75 个基点的概率为 0.2%。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”，美联储本周维持利率不变的概率为 96.9%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 3.1%。美联储到 9 月维持利率不变的概率为 0%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 87.7%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 12.0%，累计降息 75 个基点的概率为 0.2%。（金十）

CME美联储观察：美联储今夜按兵不动的概率为96.9%

According to the "Fed Watch" by CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 96.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 87.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 12.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.2%. (Gold Ten)

According to CME&#39;s &quot;Odaily Watch&quot;, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 96.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.1%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 87.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 12.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.2%. (Jinshi)

CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed standing pat tonight is 96.9%.

Julian Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, said he expects the Federal Reserve to open the door to its first rate cut in September. As the market has already digested the expectation that the rate cut in September will be slightly higher than 25 basis points, the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to reverse these expectations. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its data-dependent stance, while acknowledging that the data has been developing in the right direction, which may prove that it is reasonable to ease monetary policy in the coming months. (Gold Ten)

Barclays: The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is difficult to reverse.

Source: Wind Information
The market has already fully priced in the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September, but a big question at the FOMC meeting on July 30-31 is: How clear a signal will the FOMC send?
Economists such as Anna WON'T believe that the communication at the July meeting will only provide a preliminary hint of a rate cut in September, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will point out that "if the data develops as we expect," there may be a rate cut. Economists believe that the main reason for the hesitation is that there is a lot of data to be released before the FOMC meeting on September 17-18 - there are two more...

The Federal Reserve's July meeting may disappoint the dovish camp. Powell hinted at a rate cut in September.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: This week, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England will announce their key interest rate decisions. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain policy stability, but hint at an imminent rate cut; the Bank of England has a 50% chance of easing policy, while the Bank of Japan may raise rates or hint at taking action soon. According to a Japanese news agency, the Bank of Japan is considering raising its short-term interest rate target to around 0.25%. (Coindesk)