Odaily星球日报讯 富国银行高级经济学家 Sarah House 指出，美国劳动力市场的势头在第二季度有所放缓，减轻了人们对就业增长可能增加通胀上行压力的担忧。7 月和 2024 年剩余时间的就业报告的关键问题是，就业增长放缓是表明劳动力市场正常化，还是预示着更严重的经济放缓的开始。美国银行经济学家 Michael Gapen 在一份研究报告中表示，该报告可能会显示出劳动力市场的逐渐降温。（金十）

美银经济学家：7月非农将显示出劳动力市场的逐渐降温

Odaily Odaily News: Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, pointed out that the momentum of the U.S. labor market slowed in the second quarter, alleviating concerns that job growth could add upward pressure on inflation. The key question for the employment report in July and the rest of 2024 is whether the slowdown in job growth indicates a normalization of the labor market or the beginning of a more serious economic slowdown. Bank of America economist Michael Gapen said in a research note that the report is likely to show a gradual cooling of the labor market. (Jinshi)

The Bank of America economists: The July non-farm payrolls will show a gradual cooling of the labor market.

Source: Zhou Ziheng

Although the Federal Reserve recognizes that the US economy is "cooling down," the unemployment rate is starting to rise, and economic activity is weakening, the Federal Reserve did not lower the policy interest rate from the current high level of 5.25-5.5% at its meeting at the end of July.

The problem facing the Federal Reserve, as always, is to strike a balance between maintaining high borrowing costs to curb inflation and high borrowing costs leading to reduced household spending, reduced corporate investment, and reduced employment.

Like other central banks in major economies, the Federal Reserve has set a target inflation rate of 2% per year (which is meaningless); the difference is that the Federal Reserve has a "dual mandate," which is to strive to maintain full employment while keeping inflation low.

The Federal Reserve's defeat is already decided?

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Wealth Alliance President and Managing Director Eric Diton stated, "I believe the Federal Reserve should have cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, but they clearly missed the opportunity. Then we saw that the number of initial jobless claims rose, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI index has performed poorly for the fourth consecutive month. Powell said he relies on data, and the non-farm payroll data on Friday will be crucial. If we see a very weak data, he is likely to cut rates by 50 basis points in September. Another issue is the federal debt, we have $35 trillion in debt. The interest we pay on this debt is now about 17% of our federal spending. So, interest is now taking away the money we can use to make decisions."

Institutions: If the non-farm payrolls perform weakly tonight, the Federal Reserve is very likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

According to Odaily, the US ADP employment in July was 122,000, expected to be 150,000, and the previous value was revised from 150,000 to 155,000. The US ADP employment increased by 122,000 in July, the smallest increase since January 2024.