Odaily星球日报讯 债券交易员纷纷押注美国经济正处于恶化的边缘，美联储将需要开始大举放松货币政策来避免经济衰退。之前对于高通胀的忧虑基本上已经消失，迅速让位于新的担心，即除非央行开始把利率从逾 20 年高点下调，否则经济就将失速。 这正在推动债券市场出现自 2023 年 3 月爆发银行业危机担忧以来一次数一数二的涨势。涨势如此强劲，以至于对政策敏感的 2 年期美国国债收益率上周下跌 50 个基点，至不足 3.9%。自全球金融危机和互联网泡沫破灭以来，这个收益率还没有比美联储基准利率（目前约为 5.3%）低如此之多。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 债券交易员纷纷押注美国经济正处于恶化的边缘，美联储将需要开始大举放松货币政策来避免经济衰退。之前对于高通胀的忧虑基本上已经消失，迅速让位于新的担心，即除非央行开始把利率从逾 20 年高点下调，否则经济就将失速。这正在推动债券市场出现自 2023 年 3 月爆发银行业危机担忧以来一次数一数二的涨势。涨势如此强劲，以至于对政策敏感的 2 年期美国国债收益率上周下跌 50 个基点，至不足 3.9%。自全球金融危机和互联网泡沫破灭以来，这个收益率还没有比美联储基准利率（目前约为 5.3%）低如此之多。（金十）

2年期美债收益率数日内下跌50BP，市场大举押注美联储将启动救援模式

Bond traders are increasingly betting that the US economy is on the brink of deterioration, and the Federal Reserve will need to start aggressively easing monetary policy to avoid a recession. The previous concerns about high inflation have largely disappeared, quickly giving way to new concerns that the economy will stall unless the central bank starts lowering rates from their over 20-year highs. This is driving a rally in the bond market that is one of the strongest since the banking crisis concerns erupted in March 2023. The rally is so strong that the yield on the policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury bond fell 50 basis points last week to just under 3.9%. This yield has not been this much lower than the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate (currently around 5.3%) since the global financial crisis and the bursting of the internet bubble.

Odaily Odaily News: Bond traders are betting that the U.S. economy is on the verge of deterioration and that the Federal Reserve will need to begin aggressively easing monetary policy to avoid a recession. Previous concerns about high inflation have largely disappeared, quickly giving way to new concerns that the economy will stall unless the central bank begins to cut interest rates from more than 20-year highs. This is driving one of the best rallies in the bond market since concerns about a banking crisis broke out in March 2023. The rally was so strong that the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield fell 50 basis points last week to less than 3.9%. Since the global financial crisis and the bursting of the Internet bubble, this yield has not been so much lower than the Federal Reserve&#39;s benchmark interest rate, currently around 5.3%. (Jinshi)

The 2-year US Treasury yield has fallen by 50 basis points in a few days, with the market heavily betting that the Federal Reserve will launch a rescue mode.

On Monday, due to traders' expectations of further interest rate hikes in Japan, as well as concerns about the slowdown in the US economy and the appreciation of the yen, which dampened investor sentiment, the Japanese stock market fell for the third consecutive day. The Nikkei 225 index fell by more than 7% at one point, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index triggered a circuit breaker, with both of Japan's major benchmark indices entering a bear market. Traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing for the US economy are rapidly changing. Data released on Friday showed that the US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, higher than the Federal Reserve's year-end forecast, triggering the Sahm recession indicator. UBS Group's senior US economist, Brose, said: "Given that the unemployment rate is higher than expected and core personal consumption expenditure inflation is currently lower than the Federal Reserve's year-end forecast, we believe that from a risk balance perspective, the Federal Reserve is inclined to take more aggressive action."

Traders are betting that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates, and the Japanese stock market continued to plummet on Monday.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Barclays, the second-largest bank in the UK, stated that it now expects the US Federal Reserve FOMC to cut interest rates three times this year in September, November, and December, each by 25 basis points. Assuming the labor market will show continued resilience in the August report, the unemployment rate will stop rising. Based on this assumption, a 50 basis point rate cut in September is currently considered unreasonable. However, if the unemployment rate rises further, it will raise concerns that the cooling of the labor market is faster than expected. Looking ahead to 2025, the unemployment rate is expected to gradually decline to 4.2%, and the inflation forecast will remain unchanged. It continues to expect the FOMC to cut rates three times next year in March, June, and September, and expects concerns about lack of further progress on inflation in the second half of 2025 to lead the FOMC to pause rate cuts after the federal funds rate range reaches 3.75-4.00%. In the long run, it continues to believe that the neutral interest rate level is around 3.00-3.25%. (Gold Ten)

Barclays: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

According to the CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 78%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 3.7%, the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 75.3%, and the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 21%.