HashKey Jeffrey: In the long run, the current cryptocurrency market will continue to rise as the US dollar liquidity increases.

According to Mars Finance news, Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst of HashKey Group, said that the current cryptocurrency market has short-term demand for secondary exploration; in the long term, it will still rise as the liquidity of the US dollar increases. The reason is: The Japanese yen interest rate hike and the end of the "carry trade" will have limited actual impact on cryptocurrency. Buffett borrowed Japan's ultra-low-interest funds to buy the core assets of Japanese funds (the five major trading companies), which caused the current rise in the Japanese stock market. At present, this carry trade is showing signs of reversal due to interest rate hikes. Many international funds (including Mrs. Watanabe) will sell off their international assets to repay part of the Bank of Japan's loans. However, in the past, the main targets of such transactions were U.S. debt, core stocks and other assets, and had nothing to do with digital currencies; the Federal Reserve may convene an emergency and carry out unconventional interest rate cuts. During the "312" period in 2020, the U.S. stock market crashed four times, and the Federal Reserve held a special meeting and made unconventional interest rate cuts. If there are some dangers that we cannot see in this round of financial crisis or geopolitics, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will make another unconventional interest rate cut. If this happens, the market will achieve a "V-shaped reversal" because it exceeds expectations, but the probability of this situation is low; the war in the Middle East is clouded, and the market is still waiting for the "first gunshot." Iran has vowed to retaliate after one of the leaders of Hamas was assassinated in Tehran, Iran. Financial markets are pricing in this escalation of regional conflict. However, whether the "Arc of Resistance" wants to escalate the war at this stage, the market is still waiting for Iran's own actions; the US PMI index does not point to recession, and the market's logic of "trading recession" is slightly slower. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) service industry survey, the U.S. ISM services PMI rose from 48.8 in June to the lowest since April 2020, to 51.4 in July, which was higher than market expectations of 51, indicating a rebound in U.S. service industry activity. . Recession fears triggered by the non-farm payrolls data do not feel fully confirmed. As a result, market sentiment has recovered slightly. The release of short-term panic caused a violent rebound in the Japanese and Korean stock markets today, driving the global financial market to "stabilize." But the logic of trading recession has not yet been lifted, and the market is still waiting for further signals. However, in the long run, if the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, the pricing of all risk assets will rise accordingly. Bitcoin will be the fastest-reacting asset among them.