Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.12 trillion, of which BTC accounts for 56.6%, or $1.2 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $165.7 billion.
The crypto market was affected by insufficient liquidity in the summer, net outflows from US Bitcoin spot ETFs, interest rate hikes in Japan, and large token sales by well-known institutions. In the first half of the week, the crypto market was in a state of mourning. On August 5, BTC fell below $50,000 and ETH fell below $2,200. In the second half of the week, prices recovered slightly, with BTC rising above $60,000 and ETH rising above $2,600.
As the market fell, all tokens experienced a pullback, among which MEME rebounded strongly, and the popular project Neiro (ETH) rose 72.32% in the past 7 days. Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, HNT rose 45.24% in 7 days, and SUI rose 36.15% in 7 days.
The Federal Reserve will most likely cut interest rates in September. We are optimistic about the price trend in the second half of the year, but not optimistic about the market in August.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on August 9 was 48 (market sentiment turned from fear last week to extreme fear). This week's sentiment: 4 days of fear, 2 days of extreme fear, and 1 day of neutral.
Understand now
Review of the week's major events
1. On August 5, the total amount of liquidation in the past 12 hours reached 748 million US dollars, and the amount of long orders liquidated was 649 million US dollars, and a total of 200,000 people were affected;
2. On August 5, global stock markets generally fell. Japanese stocks fell more than 4.4% in early trading, South Korea's KOSPI index fell more than 3%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 2.1%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 2%;
3. On August 5, the Ethereum network gas fee soared to 681Gwei, which may be caused by on-chain liquidation. In the past 24 hours, the DeFi lending liquidation volume exceeded US$320 million, setting a new high for the year;
4. On August 6, the ZkRollup network Zircuit opened ZRC airdrop applications. 7% of the ZRC supply (262,200 addresses) are eligible to receive it, with a total of 10 billion pieces, and 21% for airdrops and community rewards distribution;
5. On August 6, top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio hinted on social media that he may have opened a position again, involving 2x perpetual contract positions for ETH and SOL;
6. DEX trading volume on August 6 exceeded US$20.2 billion, setting the third highest record in history;
7. On August 7, the meme coin market rebounded across the board, with new meme coins FWOG, NEIRO and HITMAN leading the gains;
8. On August 7, whale holding large amounts of Bitcoin increased their holdings of BTC during the market decline, while small holders saw their holdings decline;
9. On August 8, Ripple CEO: SEC’s resistance to the XRP community has disappeared;
10. Arbitrum now supports USDC as a custom Gas payment token;
11. On August 9, Putin said: Cryptocurrency is full of prospects and Russia must "seize the opportunity";
12. On August 9, Franklin Templeton's blockchain fund was launched on the Arbitrum network;
13. On August 9, Celestia will undergo a Lemongrass upgrade, which involves multiple consensus layer changes.
Macroeconomics
1. On August 6, lawyers for the U.S. SEC opposed Coinbase's subpoena request, which sought to search for "basically all encryption-related documents." The court documents filed on Monday are the latest development in the ongoing legal battle between the SEC and Coinbase;
2. On August 6, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that it would maintain the interest rate at 4.35%, in line with market expectations;
3. On August 6, Japan's Topix Index futures triggered the circuit breaker mechanism upward;
4. On August 7, Nasdaq and the world's largest asset management company BlackRock plan to launch options for their spot Ethereum ETF and conduct trading;
5. On August 8, Coindesk reported that although the Ripple case is said to be over, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to appeal the ruling, which means that related legal matters may be prolonged;
6. On August 8, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 31.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 68.5%. By November, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 15.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 55.6%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 28.7%;
7. On August 9, former US President Trump said he agreed to debate with Vice President Harris on September 4, 10 and 25. He also expressed the hope that Vice President Harris would agree to the debate dates.
ETF
According to statistics, from August 5 to August 9, the net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETF was US$159.6 million; as of August 9, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of US$19.451 billion, currently holding US$14.188 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds US$20.972 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETF is US$57.124 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: US$104.8 million.
Predicting the future
Upcoming Events
1. Istanbul Blockchain Week will be held in Istanbul from August 13th to 14th. Istanbul is a city that connects continents and cultures, and cryptocurrency and Web3 have played a key role in the lives of its people;
2. WebX Asia 2024 is hosted by Japanese Web3 media CoinPost and will be held in Tokyo, Japan from August 28 to 29, 2024. The conference brings together professionals related to crypto assets, blockchain and other Web3 technologies, providing participants with direct interaction with companies, experts, entrepreneurs, investors, government officials and media from Japan and other countries;
3. Korea Blockchain Week (KBW) 2024 will be held in Seoul, South Korea from September 1st to 7th. The conference is an annual global blockchain and Web3 event founded and hosted by FACTBLOCK and co-hosted by Hashed. It will bring together blockchain enthusiasts, investors, organizations, and industry leaders, aiming to attract people who want to delve deeper into the cryptocurrency, blockchain, and Web3 industries.
Project Progress
1. Immutable will shut down IMX Marketplace on August 13, and IMX Marketplace will cease operations on September 27. Immutable Marketplace was built to showcase the features that developers can use through the Immutable SDK, and will now focus on supporting third-party markets rather than maintaining its own trading platform;
2. The AI operating layer gm.ai will launch the GM token on Solana on August 14;
3. Scroll will deploy the Darwin proof recursive upgrade on the Scroll Sepolia testnet on August 14. This upgrade will reduce gas fees by about 34% and will be launched on the mainnet on August 21.
Important Events
1. Former US President Trump said he will have an important interview with Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Monday evening, August 12 (local time);
2. Bybit stops providing services in France. Bybit will liquidate the remaining open positions after 16:00 on August 13, and will only allow asset and fund withdrawals after that;
3. Grayscale appointed Peter Mintzberg, former global head of strategy for Goldman Sachs Asset and Wealth Management, as CEO. The appointment will take effect on August 15, when Mintzberg will also join Grayscale's board of directors;
4. OKX will stop most services in the Nigerian market on August 16;
5. FTX liquidator PwC stated that FTX.com customers need to choose whether to participate in the official liquidation procedure in the Bahamas (Bahamian process) or the Chapter 11 case in the United States (US process), and must make a choice before 4:00 on August 17.
Token Unlock
1. 11.31 million Aptos tokens APT will be unlocked on August 12, with a value of approximately US$57.34 million, accounting for 2.4% of the circulation;
2. The Sandbox token SAND will unlock 205 million on August 14, worth approximately $48.96 million, accounting for 9% of the circulation;
3. 64 million Starknet tokens STRK will be unlocked on August 15, with a value of approximately US$22.11 million, accounting for 3.95% of the circulation.
about Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research department of Hotcoin, is committed to providing detailed and professional analysis of the cryptocurrency market. Our goal is to provide clear market insights and practical operation guides for investors of different levels. Our professional content includes the "Play and Earn Web3" series of tutorials, in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, detailed analysis of potential projects, and real-time observation of the market. Whether you are a novice exploring the crypto field for the first time or an experienced investor seeking in-depth insights, Hotcoin will be your reliable partner to understand and seize market opportunities.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
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