More than $829,707 has been wagered on Polymarket on Donald Trump's online actions following his re-emergence on social media platform X.
Polymarket , a decentralized prediction market platform, has attracted the attention of investors and political watchers alike by allowing users to bet on real-world outcomes. Trump’s return to X has made Polymarket’s market more active than ever, with bets placed on every aspect of his online activity, from how many tweets he will make in the coming week to how likely he is to post again before the 2024 election.
One of the most active markets is predicting how many tweets Trump will make in the coming week. Users can bet on different tweet ranges, from 11-15 to over 50 tweets in a week. Currently, the largest bets are concentrated in the 11-15 range, attracting $216,026, reflecting a 79% probability. This suggests that the market predicts Trump will be active on X relatively often, but not overly “saturated.”
Another market, which attracted a total of $829,707 in bets, focused on whether Trump would post on X again before the 2024 election. This market currently predicts with 100% certainty that Trump will post again before the election deadline, indicating strong user confidence in Trump’s continued presence on the platform and his potential to influence the upcoming election.
Source: Polymarket
The market has also been controversial in how it calculates its results. According to Polymarket, any original post, reply, or quote from Trump’s tweet will result in the market ending with a “Yes” result. However, retweets are excluded, creating ambiguity in defining “tweets” on X. To resolve disputes, Polymarket uses UMA ’s Optimistic Oracle , a decentralized and trusted resolution mechanism that helps determine betting outcomes in a transparent and fair manner.
Additionally, a prediction market for the content of Trump’s interview with Elon Musk has also attracted attention. Users can bet on whether Trump will mention specific topics such as “MAGA,” “Bitcoin,” or “illegal immigrants.” The market has seen large bets, indicating users’ interest in the topics Trump might touch on during the conversation.
The flurry of activity on Polymarket shows the importance of Trump in shaping the prediction market. His return to X has not only captured public attention but also influenced users’ investment decisions, demonstrating the tight connection between politics, social media, and financial markets.
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