Written by: Nan Zhi, Odaily Odaily
According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, Kamala Harris's chance of winning the 2024 US presidential election has risen to 77%, while Trump's chance has dropped to 21%. A month ago, due to the assassination, Trump's chance of being elected once rose to 70%, far exceeding Biden, and Bitcoin ushered in a wave of sharp increases, reaching a high of $70,000.
The Biden administration has always maintained a strict regulatory stance on encryption. Will Harris, the current vice president and Biden's successor, continue the strict regulatory policy in the future? Odaily will analyze it based on market information.
Silent Harris
Public information and White House financial data show that US Vice President Harris and her husband both have large investments, but neither holds any digital assets, and she has never made any statements in support or against digital currency, tokenization, blockchain or NFT.
Last Thursday, Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna hosted a meeting aimed at repairing relations with the cryptocurrency industry. The meeting was attended by about 20 people, including government officials such as the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, the Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, the Deputy Director of the White House Office of Staff, and Harris's senior adviser Kristine Lucius; while cryptocurrency representatives included billionaire Mark Cuban, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, and some executives from Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, Uniswap and other companies.
However, Harris did not attend the meeting. According to FOX reporter Eleanor, the communication at the meeting was not smooth, the atmosphere was tense, and the two sides had a dispute. Eleanor believes that the reason is that Harris himself has never expressed his position, and the team members are unable to make commitments when trying to repair the encryption relationship. Harris' team's performance is "willing to listen but not make commitments."
Harris recently chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as his running mate. Walz has never made clear his stance on cryptocurrency policy. The only public event involving cryptocurrency was that he received a $4,000 political donation from former FTX Engineering Director Nishad Singh in October 2022.
The team is working
Although Harris has not yet directly expressed his attitude towards the encryption industry, his team's operations still reveal certain signs.
According to the latest report from Bloomberg, Harris has hired three outsiders to help her perfect her latest economic propaganda, including Mike Pyle, her first economic adviser since she became vice president, and two former economic aides to Biden, Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti. People familiar with the matter said that although the proposal is relatively loose overall, it requires taxation of wealthy cryptocurrency holders.
Regarding the three outsiders involved in the formulation of economic propaganda, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, said that Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti are key figures in the Biden administration's opposition to cryptocurrencies, and analyzed the roles they played in opposing cryptocurrencies. This article does not go into detail about the specific content, and readers can refer to Alex's original text for details (click to jump).
Alex further pointed out that Mike Pyle has long worked for Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is the biggest opponent of cryptocurrency in the Senate; Mike worked in Elizabeth’s Senate office and was responsible for the economic policy of her presidential campaign.
Market Opinion
Bernstein: Harris' election is bearish for the crypto market
Brokerage firm Bernstein said in a recent research note that a Trump victory in the US election in November would be good for the cryptocurrency market, while a Harris victory would be bad for the market.
The report pointed out that Bitcoin has weakened after Polymarket odds and polls turned to support Harris, and it is expected that Bitcoin will remain range-bound until the election becomes clear. Trump has been outspoken about his crypto policy and has reached out to companies in the industry, Bitcoin mining companies and the wider community. He has also promised to provide favorable support for Bitcoin and crypto innovation in his policies, and even mentioned the possibility of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve.
Gemini Co-founder: Supporting Harris is opposing the crypto industry
The U.S. Federal Reserve has taken enforcement action against cryptocurrency-supporting customer banks, requiring them to provide 30 days’ notice before establishing new banking relationships with cryptocurrency companies, raising questions about the sincerity of Vice President Harris’ campaign’s efforts to mend ties with the cryptocurrency industry.
Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson both said that the current US government is hostile to the crypto industry and warned voters that supporting Harris could be detrimental to the US crypto industry.
Arthur Hayes: It doesn't matter who is elected, Bitcoin will rise
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said in an interview that it doesn't matter to the crypto industry whether Trump or Harris wins the next US presidential election. Although the crypto industry has donated a lot of money to Trump, it is not enough to exceed JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citibank and Goldman Sachs. So, even if Trump is elected, he may still face the same problem as in his first term: Although he can say something cryptocurrency-friendly and try some policies, if the entire government agency is against it, nothing will be done.
Regarding Bitcoin and monetary policy, Hayes said that both the Trump administration and the Harris administration will print money, just in different ways, so cryptocurrencies will rise, but the road may be very bumpy.
Paradigm survey: Harris needs to attract supporters from the crypto community
According to a recent survey by crypto investment firm Paradigm, U.S. Vice President Harris may need to attract more support from the crypto community to strengthen the Democratic Party’s chances of winning the November election.
The survey of 804 registered Democrats found that 13% of respondents have not yet decided whether to vote for Harris. Among the undecided respondents, 18% have invested in cryptocurrencies, and 21% of crypto investors believe that the Biden administration is "too hostile" to the industry.
Overall, the survey shows that a small number of Democrats (1% to 2%) may lean towards Republican candidate Donald Trump due to the Biden administration being unfriendly to the cryptocurrency industry.
Republican Senator Vivek Ramaswamy: Harris will support the crypto industry
U.S. Senator Vivek Ramaswamy expects Harris to embrace Bitcoin and the crypto industry. Ramaswamy said: "I think it's a good thing for the country... This shouldn't be a partisan issue."
