Odaily星球日报讯 今年杰克逊霍尔央行年会的主题是“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”，将谈及美国经济在加息超过 5 个百分点的情况下保持的强劲势头，以及其对众多衰退预测的蔑视。 与过去的利率周期相比，货币政策对实体经济的影响可能没有那么大，这既是由于 2009 年至 2022 年普遍存在的低利率的遗留问题，也是由于经济的结构性变化。 数以百万计的房主仍持有利率低于 4%的 30 年期抵押贷款，而企业也同样利用超低利率的机会，在加息前进行再融资并延长贷款期限。事实上，许多最大的美国公司都是净利息收入者。（巴伦周刊）

Odaily星球日报讯 今年杰克逊霍尔央行年会的主题是“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导性”，将谈及美国经济在加息超过 5 个百分点的情况下保持的强劲势头，以及其对众多衰退预测的蔑视。与过去的利率周期相比，货币政策对实体经济的影响可能没有那么大，这既是由于 2009 年至 2022 年普遍存在的低利率的遗留问题，也是由于经济的结构性变化。数以百万计的房主仍持有利率低于 4%的 30 年期抵押贷款，而企业也同样利用超低利率的机会，在加息前进行再融资并延长贷款期限。事实上，许多最大的美国公司都是净利息收入者。（巴伦周刊）

下周全球央行年会：美国经济不惧加息、无视衰退预期

The theme of this year's Jackson Hole Federal Reserve annual meeting is "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy", which will discuss the strong momentum of the US economy despite interest rates rising by more than 5 percentage points, and its contempt for numerous recession forecasts. Compared to past interest rate cycles, the impact of monetary policy on the real economy may not be as great, due to both the legacy of the generally low interest rates that existed from 2009 to 2022, and the structural changes in the economy. Millions of homeowners still hold 30-year mortgages with interest rates below 4%, while companies have also taken advantage of the super-low interest rates to refinance and extend loan maturities before the rate hikes. In fact, many of the largest US companies are net interest income earners. (Barron's)

Odaily Odaily reported that the theme of this year&#39;s Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting is &quot;Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy&quot;, which will talk about the strong momentum of the US economy despite interest rate hikes of more than 5 percentage points, and its defiance of numerous recession forecasts. Compared with past interest rate cycles, monetary policy may not have as much impact on the real economy, due both to the legacy of low interest rates that prevailed from 2009 to 2022 and to structural changes in the economy. Millions of homeowners still hold 30-year mortgages with interest rates below 4%, and businesses are also taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates to refinance and extend loan terms before rate hikes. In fact, many of the largest American companies are net interest income earners. (Barron&#39;s)

Next week's global central bank annual meeting: The US economy is not afraid of interest rate hikes and ignores recession expectations

Odaily Planet Daily reported that Federal Reserve Governor Goolsbee stated that the labor market and some leading economic indicators are flashing warning signs, and added that people are concerned that the unemployment rate will continue to rise. Goolsbee said: "Historically, if the unemployment rate starts to rise, and if temporary employment is negative, this is a leading indicator." He pointed out that the rise in credit card delinquency rates and the rise in small business default rates are also worrying issues. He said that when the job market starts to have problems, they often do not happen slowly. However, he refused to reveal whether he supports a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in September, but he reiterated that there is no need to tighten monetary policy if the economy is not overheating. When asked about the possible magnitude of a rate cut, Goolsbee said: "Everything is under discussion."

Fed's Goolsbee responds to rate cut: Everything is under discussion

The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on the economic outlook at 10:00 pm Beijing time next Friday. Bank of America predicts that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting is unlikely to have a significant impact on the US dollar. The bank's analysts pointed out that funds remain optimistic about the strength of the US dollar, which may lead to downside risks. Bank of America stated that the market has priced in four rate cuts this year, "We do not believe that Powell will deviate from the market pricing, he will keep the option of aggressive easing, which will depend on the data before the September meeting."

Bank of America: The market is pricing in four rate cuts this year, and I don't think Powell will go against market pricing

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Sparta Capital Securities, stated that the key data today is retail sales, which indicates that the pulse of American consumers is much stronger than expected. This reduces people's concerns about an economic recession, which is good news for the stock market, but may not be good news for the bond market. With this report, we are back to square one, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. The possibility of a more substantial 50 basis point rate cut is decreasing. Today's retail sales are positive for American businesses. This means that consumers have not hibernated. This is a good sign for corporate earnings, but it raises concerns about what the Federal Reserve will or will not do.