Odaily星球日报讯 日元兑美元汇率自上周四以来已上涨 2.4%，达到 145 日元兑 1 美元，显示出对避险货币的偏好。类似的日元强势在 8 月初曾引发套利交易解除，导致包括比特币在内的风险资产大幅波动。比特币价格在 8 月 5 日前八天从约 7 万美元跌至 5 万美元，随后随美元兑日元反弹回升至 6 万美元。著名交易员 Simon Ree 和高盛加密交易主管 Andrei Kazantsev 都指出，日元的强势可能会导致全球风险资产的负面反馈循环。根据 ING 的分析，日元的反弹可能会改变市场行为，增加在日元走弱时买入的意愿，从而加大日元走强的风险。 未来几周，随着美联储 9 月中旬的利率决策会议临近，套利交易解除可能会继续。Easterly EAB 风险解决方案的全球宏观策略师 Arnim Holzer 表示，如果美联储降息 50 个基点，市场可能会先涨后跌，因为对经济的担忧和日元的强势将重新引发套利交易解除。（Coindesk）

Odaily星球日报讯 日元兑美元汇率自上周四以来已上涨 2.4%，达到 145 日元兑 1 美元，显示出对避险货币的偏好。类似的日元强势在 8 月初曾引发套利交易解除，导致包括比特币在内的风险资产大幅波动。比特币价格在 8 月 5 日前八天从约 7 万美元跌至 5 万美元，随后随美元兑日元反弹回升至 6 万美元。著名交易员 Simon Ree 和高盛加密交易主管 Andrei Kazantsev 都指出，日元的强势可能会导致全球风险资产的负面反馈循环。根据 ING 的分析，日元的反弹可能会改变市场行为，增加在日元走弱时买入的意愿，从而加大日元走强的风险。未来几周，随着美联储 9 月中旬的利率决策会议临近，套利交易解除可能会继续。Easterly EAB 风险解决方案的全球宏观策略师 Arnim Holzer 表示，如果美联储降息 50 个基点，市场可能会先涨后跌，因为对经济的担忧和日元的强势将重新引发套利交易解除。（Coindesk）

分析：日元走强或致全球风险资产的负反馈循环，加密交易员需保持谨慎

The Odaily Planet Daily Report states that the yen-dollar exchange rate has risen 2.4% since last Thursday, reaching 145 yen per 1 US dollar, indicating a preference for safe-haven currencies. Similar yen strength in early August had triggered the unwinding of carry trades, leading to significant volatility in risk assets including Bitcoin. Bitcoin prices fell from around $70,000 to $50,000 in the eight days prior to August 5, and then rebounded to $60,000 as the US dollar against the yen recovered. Renowned trader Simon Ree and Goldman Sachs' crypto trading head Andrei Kazantsev both noted that the strength of the yen may lead to a negative feedback loop in global risk assets. According to ING's analysis, the yen's rebound may change market behavior, increasing the willingness to buy when the yen weakens, thereby increasing the risk of the yen strengthening further. In the coming weeks, as the Fed's mid-September interest rate decision meeting approaches, the unwinding of carry trades may continue. Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions, stated that if the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points, the market may first rise and then fall, as concerns about the economy and the strength of the yen will once again trigger the unwinding of carry trades.

Odaily Odaily News: The yen has risen 2.4% against the dollar since last Thursday to 145 yen to the dollar, showing a preference for safe-haven currencies. Similar yen strength triggered the unwinding of carry trades in early August, causing sharp fluctuations in risk assets including Bitcoin. Bitcoin prices fell from about $70,000 to $50,000 in the eight days before August 5, and then rebounded to $60,000 as the dollar rebounded against the yen. Both well-known trader Simon Ree and Goldman Sachs&#39; head of crypto trading Andrei Kazantsev pointed out that the strength of the yen could lead to a negative feedback loop for global risk assets. According to ING&#39;s analysis, the rebound in the yen could change market behavior and increase the willingness to buy when the yen weakens, thereby increasing the risk of a stronger yen. In the coming weeks, as the Federal Reserve&#39;s mid-September interest rate decision meeting approaches, the unwinding of carry trades may continue. Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions, said that if the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, the market may rise first and then fall, as concerns about the economy and the strength of the yen will re-trigger the unwinding of carry trades. (Coindesk)

Analysis: The strengthening of the yen may lead to a negative feedback loop for global risk assets, and crypto traders need to remain cautious

Author: 0x9999in1

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Author | Binance Research
Summary:
After a strong performance in 2023, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization continued to rise in the first half of 2024, ultimately reaching around $2.27 trillion, an increase of 37.3% since the beginning of the year. The growth in the first quarter was remarkable, reaching 60.2%. The situation in the second quarter was relatively complex, with some of the gains in the cryptocurrency market retreating, and the market capitalization declining by 14.3%.
Layer-1 ("L1") had a strong start to the year, with Bitcoin going through its fourth Bitcoin halving, the launch of the Runes protocol, and the introduction of a U.S. spot ETF...