QCP Capital 最新报告指出，华尔街盛传，美国就业增长数据可能将向下修正至少 60 万，表明过去一年美国就业市场并不如预期强劲。预计鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔年会上对此发表看法，但可能不会做出明确决定。大幅向下修正或特别鸽派的表态可能会逆转过去两周的股市反弹，并将 BTC 和 ETH 推低至支撑位以下。即使修正幅度不大，市场已普遍预期美联储将在 9 月份开始降息，2024 年预计降息 3.7 次...

<div>QCP Capital 最新报告指出，华尔街盛传，美国就业增长数据可能将向下修正至少 60 万，表明过去一年美国就业市场并不如预期强劲。预计鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔年会上对此发表看法，但可能不会做出明确决定。大幅向下修正或特别鸽派的表态可能会逆转过去两周的股市反弹，并将 BTC 和 ETH 推低至支撑位以下。即使修正幅度不大，市场已普遍预期美联储将在 9 月份开始降息，2024 年预计降息 3.7 次，2025 年预计降息 4.5 次。<br><br></div>

QCP Capital ：市场已普遍预期美联储将在 9 月份开始降息

QCP Capital's latest report points out that it is widely rumored on Wall Street that the US employment growth data may be revised downward by at least 600,000, indicating that the US job market has not been as strong as expected over the past year. It is expected that Powell will express his views on this at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, but may not make a clear decision. A significant downward revision or particularly dovish stance could reverse the stock market rebound of the past two weeks and push BTC and ETH below support levels. Even if the revision is not large, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September, and it is expected that there will be 3.7 interest rate cuts by 2024...

<div>QCP Capital&#39;s latest report points out that Wall Street is rumored that US job growth data may be revised downward by at least 600,000, indicating that the US job market has not been as strong as expected in the past year. Powell is expected to comment on this at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, but may not make a clear decision. A large downward revision or a particularly dovish statement could reverse the stock market rebound of the past two weeks and push BTC and ETH below support. Even if the revision is not large, the market has generally expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September, with 3.7 cuts expected in 2024 and 4.5 cuts expected in 2025.<br><br></div>

QCP Capital: The market has generally expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September

The US Treasury futures market has recently reached a record high in leveraged positions, with bond traders betting on an impending sustained rebound in the US Treasury market, and even the possibility of entering a long-term bull market. The main driving force behind this rebound bet is the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in over four years. (Yield and bond prices are inversely related, so a rate cut is expected to boost prices)
Market data shows that bond traders have almost completely priced in the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September, and expectations for further rate cuts in November and December are also steadily increasing.
Powell may...

"Record-breaking amounts of money" in the U.S. bond market raise expectations for a Fed rate cut, focusing on Powell's speech at the central bank's annual meeting

Odaily Planet Daily Report: As the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's rate cut next month has become increasingly high, the Federal Reserve is very likely to fulfill this expectation. Wall Street tycoon Peter Schiff stated that a rate cut will be seen in September, the main reason being that the market is now expecting a rate cut in September. This is the reason why the US stock market rebounded after being sold off on Monday. Since the market has already factored in the possibility of a rate cut in September, Powell has no reason not to fulfill it, as he always meets market expectations and does not want to cause any surprises in the market. (Gold Ten)

Peter Schiff: The market is now counting on a rate cut in September, and Powell has no reason not to deliver

Some Federal Reserve observers expect Powell will not make specific predictions for September, but will instead remind everyone that the Federal Reserve is now focusing more on employment issues, as the job market is weakening. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to maintain price stability and full employment. With the rise in the unemployment rate, the latter has become increasingly important and has put greater pressure on the Federal Reserve to take action. In July, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021. Wilmington Trust bond portfolio manager Luke Tilley expects Powell will discuss the natural rate of interest, also known as the "neutral rate," which helps the Federal Reserve understand the actual constraints on its monetary policy.