Odaily星球日报讯 德国商业银行分析师在报告中称，金价在周二创下每盎司 2531.6 美元的新纪录，随后在周四大幅下跌，短期内是否会进一步上涨可能将取决于鲍威尔的讲话。如果鲍威尔暗示会加大降息力度，那么黄金可能会被推向新的高度。德商银行表示，鉴于市场已经对美联储在 2024 年底前降息约 100 个基点进行了定价，出现积极意外的门槛很高。不过，如果市场预期落空，黄金可能会再次承压。（金十）

德商银行：鲍威尔讲话超出预期门槛很高，市场已对美联储年底前降息约100个基点定价

Odaily Odaily News: Analysts at Commerzbank said in a report that gold prices hit a new record of $2,531.6 per ounce on Tuesday, and then fell sharply on Thursday. Whether it will rise further in the short term may depend on Powell&#39;s speech. If Powell hints at more rate cuts, gold may be pushed to new heights. Commerzbank said that given that the market has already priced in the Fed&#39;s interest rate cuts of about 100 basis points by the end of 2024, the threshold for positive surprises is high. However, if market expectations are not met, gold may come under pressure again. (Jinshi)

Commerzbank: Powell's speech exceeded expectations, and the market has already priced in a 100 basis point rate cut by the Fed before the end of the year

The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 22 to 24, and the global community is highly focused on the speech by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Powell, on August 23. It is expected that he will deliver the speech at 10 AM Eastern Time (10 PM Taiwan time) on Friday. With the significant downward revision of the US non-farm employment figures, and the July Federal Reserve meeting minutes showing that most officials support a rate cut in September, Powell is expected to convey a dovish tone.

Evercore ISI recently estimated that Powell should hint at a flexible approach to rate cuts, with a 25-basis-point cut in September being the basic scenario, but he remains open to a 50-basis-point cut.

The chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 1% in September exceeds 70%. Will Ball pour cold water on the market tonight?

Odaily reports that Kai Investment Macro believes the US dollar may further decline in the coming years, as the valuation of the US dollar is still relatively high and faces adverse interest rate differentials and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Economist Shivaan Tandon said in the report that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may exceed those of other countries, meaning that the interest rate differential may continue to be unfavorable for the United States. "We also expect risk appetite to remain strong, which means the US dollar will continue to be under pressure." Although there are concerns about an economic recession, the US economy appears to be heading for a soft landing. Kai Investment Macro forecasts that the DXY US dollar index will fall to 98 by the end of 2025.

Economist Shivaan Tandon: The Fed may cut interest rates more than other countries

Odaily Odaily reported that before the release of revised US employment data, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024.