As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, data from market forecasting platform Polymarket shows that Donald Trump's vote rate is gradually climbing. The latest forecast results show that he has won 53% support, while his main competitor, current Vice President Kamala Harris, has a support rate of 46%. This change in data has attracted widespread attention and discussion, especially in the financial market and cryptocurrency community. As a Republican candidate, Trump's rising support rate not only reflects his advantages in economic policies, voter mobilization and party cohesion, but also reveals the challenges and difficulties Harris faces during the campaign.
This article will analyze in depth the key factors that led to Trump's rising vote rate from multiple perspectives, including the Democratic Party's economic policies, the changing attitudes of centrist voters, the impact of the absence of politicians in key states, and the widespread support for Trump in the cryptocurrency industry, to help readers more fully understand this complex election dynamic.
1. “Harris Economics” has not been deeply rooted in people’s hearts?
Harris's "Harris Economics" is one of the core policies of her campaign. However, this economic policy has caused widespread controversy in American society, especially among centrist voters.
1. Controversy over price control policies
The most controversial of Harris' economic policies are the price control measures she proposed. These measures are intended to prevent price gouging by limiting the pricing power of companies on necessities through legislative means. However, although this policy has a certain effect on controlling inflation and protecting consumer interests in theory, in practice, economists and policy experts generally question its feasibility.
Many experts believe that price controls may cause market distortions, leading to supply chain problems and commodity shortages. For example, an editorial in The Washington Post pointed out that Harris's price control policy may disrupt the balance of supply and demand in the market, and even lead to black markets and hoarding. This concern is not groundless. Many price control measures in history have failed due to poor market response. Therefore, although Harris's policy can attract some voters who hope to reduce the cost of living in the short term, it may lead to economic instability in the long run. This has hit her support among centrist voters, especially those who are highly concerned about economic stability and market freedom.
2. Challenges of housing policy
Harris' housing policy also played a complicated role in the election. She proposed a plan to solve the housing shortage by building a large number of affordable middle-class homes. This policy seems reasonable on paper, especially in the face of the increasingly serious housing crisis in the United States. Increasing housing supply is undoubtedly a direct and effective solution.
However, the problem is that the implementation cost of this policy is extremely high, and its economic feasibility and actual effect have been widely questioned. For example, Harris promised to build 3 million affordable housing units in her first term, but the source of funds and the details of policy implementation were not clearly stated. What's more, she also promised not to increase the tax burden on families with an annual income of less than $400,000, which means that the funding for the entire project may rely on a large government deficit or a tax increase on the rich, which will undoubtedly further intensify the criticism inside and outside the Democratic Party.
This uncertainty not only makes centrist voters feel uneasy, but also calls into question Harris's credibility in policy implementation. Housing price control and homebuyer subsidy policies seem to be a direct concern for the interests of middle- and low-income voters, but in fact they may inadvertently cause further increases in market prices, leading to an intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand. Therefore, although the introduction of housing policies shows Harris's concern for social issues, the shortcomings of its policy design and the difficulty of implementation have had a counter-effect on the election.
3. Appeal and limitations to the middle class
The core of Harris' economic policy is to improve the quality of life of the middle class. She particularly emphasizes improving the economic security of the middle class by increasing child tax credits and controlling medical costs. These measures will theoretically help alleviate the economic pressure faced by the American middle class, especially in the context of high childcare and medical costs.
However, as some critics have pointed out, although these policies are popular with some voters, their long-term sustainability and funding sources remain unresolved problems. The votes of the middle class are crucial to any candidate, but if the policies are not implemented properly, these votes may turn to the opponent. Although Harris's policy designs are idealistic, potential problems in their implementation, such as the possibility of increasing the government's fiscal deficit, weaken the actual appeal of these policies to the middle class.
In addition, Harris tried to combine economic policies with social justice issues, such as achieving broader social equity through anti-discrimination bills and reducing the economic burden on poor groups. However, while this approach won support from progressives, it also aroused concerns from conservatives and some centrists, who believed that these policies could further expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty.
4. Overall impact on the election
Overall, although Harris' economic policies have shown her concern for the middle class and low-income groups to a certain extent, her support among centrist and economic liberal voters has not been effectively improved due to the radical policy design and lack of implementation details. On the contrary, these voters may be more inclined to support Trump, who has a clearer position and more pragmatic policies.
The controversial nature of these policies not only put Harris in a passive position in the election, but also provided Trump with an excuse to attack. Trump can use the uncertainty in these policies to emphasize his experience in economic management and support for market freedom, thereby attracting voters who are more concerned about economic stability and growth. Therefore, the Democratic Party’s economic policies have a twofold impact in this election: on the one hand, it strengthens Harris’ support among progressives, and on the other hand, it creates more uncertainty among key centrist voters, thus providing conditions for Trump’s election rate to rise.
Harris' policies include measures to reduce the cost of living, control prices, and increase housing supply. Although these policies theoretically help solve the plight of the American middle class, they have been criticized for unclear implementation details and the fiscal deficit that may be caused.
For example, although the price control policy proposed by Harris may be attractive to some voters in the short term, many economists and the media believe that this policy is a "populist gimmick" that cannot effectively solve practical problems and may lead to market distortions and commodity shortages. This negative evaluation has weakened Harris's support among voters, especially among centrist voters who are more inclined to support candidates who can maintain economic stability and market freedom.
2. The attitudes of centrist voters in the United States are wavering
Centrist voters often play a key role in US elections. Their positions are usually not biased towards either party, and they pay more attention to the actual policies of the candidates and their impact on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of controversy over Harris' economic policies, centrist voters' support for her began to decline. On the contrary, although Trump's economic policies are controversial, his clear positions on tax cuts, economic stimulus, etc. are more in line with centrist voters' expectations for economic development.
In addition, Trump's support for the free market and the economic measures he took during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have also won the approval of some centrist voters. In contrast, Harris' economic policies are considered too radical, especially in terms of price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to increase support among centrists.
3. Will Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro’s absence from the Democratic Party’s meeting shake the morale of the troops?
The absence of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has had a negative impact on Harris's election prospects. Pennsylvania is a key swing state, and the attitude of its voters is crucial to the outcome of the national election. Shapiro's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party with Harris' economic policies or campaign strategies, and this dissatisfaction may further weaken Harris' support in the state.
In this case, voters may doubt Harris' campaign ability and party cohesion, and turn to support Trump, who is more certain. Shapiro's absence not only affects Harris's election in Pennsylvania, but also indirectly affects her performance in other swing states. For Harris, ensuring the unity of the party and the support of key states is the key to her campaign success, but Shapiro's absence undoubtedly increases her challenges in this regard.
4. Trump and the crypto industry are heading in both directions?
Trump’s support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in his rising election rate. Although Trump had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies in the early days, as the market developed, he gradually changed his position and began to actively support the crypto industry.
In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to publicly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that it would accept donations in a variety of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. This move not only demonstrated his open attitude towards cryptocurrencies, but also established a closer connection with the crypto community.
The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic step that not only expands Trump's voter base, but also attracts young voters and technology enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters tend to have a strong sense of identification with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sends them a clear signal that he supports this emerging field and is willing to speak for it politically.
In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has also made a series of policy promises that further consolidate his position in the crypto community. One of the most eye-catching promises is to pardon Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road. Silk Road is one of the most famous cryptocurrency trading platforms in the early days, and Ulbricht's case has great symbolic significance in the crypto community. Trump's promise not only won the favor of a large number of cryptocurrency supporters, but also conveyed his tolerant attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry to the outside world.
In addition, Trump also said that if he is re-elected, he will promote the inclusion of Bitcoin in the United States' strategic reserves and consider using Bitcoin to solve some national debt problems. Although these proposals have caused widespread controversy in the mainstream financial community, they have received a warm response in the crypto community. Cryptocurrency supporters believe that these measures will greatly enhance the legitimacy and global status of cryptocurrencies and bring greater development opportunities to the industry.
This supportive attitude has won wide recognition in the crypto community. Compared with Harris, Trump's position in the field of cryptocurrency is more clear and positive, which has won him a large number of supporters in this emerging market. Practitioners and investors in the cryptocurrency industry are very sensitive to the market prospects, and they are more willing to support a candidate who is open to the crypto industry. Trump's position has obviously won him the support of this part of voters and pushed up his election rate.
Crypto Company Election Spending in the 2024 US Election Cycle
According to a report by Public Citizen, nearly half of corporate political donations in the 2024 election cycle came from crypto companies. These companies influence election results by supporting candidates whose interests are aligned with their own. The crypto industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in words, but also has a real impact on the election through financial assistance.
This corporate-level support further consolidates Trump's position in the crypto community and related industries. As more crypto companies and individual investors invest in political action committees (PACs) supporting Trump, Trump's financial and publicity advantages in the election are strengthened, which directly drives up his election rate in prediction markets such as Polymarket.
Conclusion: The final result is unpredictable, but we expect the elected officials to further relax Web3 policies.
In summary, Trump's rising vote rate is the result of multiple factors. Harris' economic policies have caused controversy, especially among centrist voters, and her support is difficult to increase. The absence of Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro has exacerbated concerns about intra-party divisions, further weakening Harris' support in key states. Trump's support for the crypto industry has won him wide recognition in this emerging market. At the same time, the huge political donations from crypto companies have also provided strong support for Trump's election.
In the coming months, both Trump and Harris will face huge challenges. They need to constantly adjust their strategies to win more voter support, especially among voters in key swing states. For Trump, continuing to consolidate his position in the crypto industry and expanding his appeal to centrist voters will be the key to his staying ahead. Harris, on the other hand, needs to find a breakthrough to win back the trust of centrist voters while strengthening party unity to cope with the upcoming climax of the election.
Regardless of the final result, this election will have a profound impact on the crypto market in the United States and around the world. For investors and market participants, paying close attention to the policy trends of the two candidates will be the key to formulating future investment strategies.
