Odaily星球日报讯 据市场消息，欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼表示，九月份降息并非板上钉钉，不希望过早降息，美联储的降息将使欧洲央行更容易进一步降息，通胀斗争在很大程度上已取得胜利。（金十）

欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼：九月降息并非板上钉钉，不希望过早降息

Odaily Odaily reported that according to market news, European Central Bank board member Holzmann said that the September rate cut is not a foregone conclusion and he does not want to cut rates too early. The Fed&#39;s rate cut will make it easier for the European Central Bank to cut rates further, and the fight against inflation has been won to a large extent. (Jinshi)

ECB Governing Council member Holzmann: September rate cut is not a foregone conclusion, and we do not want to cut rates too early

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Commenting on the speech by Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, Citic Securities believes that Powell's speech implied that the "economy has already normalized" and that monetary policy is expected to "normalize" as well.

1. Supply constraints have already normalized, and confidence in the downward trend of inflation has significantly increased;

2. Employment is no longer "overheated", and the risk of employment deterioration is being emphasized;

3. After the July FOMC meeting, the risk of the dual mandate has changed again: the upside risk to inflation has weakened, while the downside risk to employment has increased. A rate cut in September is almost certain, and further rate cuts may continue to follow until the US economy shows significant downward pressure.

Looking ahead to next year, the election results will also have a significant impact on the pace of rate cuts. If Harris takes office, we may see more consecutive rate cuts in the short term; but if Trump is re-elected, under the impact of increased tariffs, the Fed may have a wait-and-see attitude towards inflation.

Maintain judgments on various assets: stock market volatility may increase before the election, be bullish on US Treasuries, and non-US currencies may remain relatively strong against the US dollar. Stock market volatility may increase before the election, and a rebound before the election cannot be ruled out, but the rebound may still be a window for profit-taking. (Jinshi)

China Merchants Securities comments on Powell's speech: There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September

The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 22 to 24, and the global community is highly focused on the speech by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Powell, on August 23. It is expected that he will deliver the speech at 10 AM Eastern Time (10 PM Taiwan time) on Friday. With the significant downward revision of the US non-farm employment figures, and the July Federal Reserve meeting minutes showing that most officials support a rate cut in September, Powell is expected to convey a dovish tone.

Evercore ISI recently estimated that Powell should hint at a flexible approach to rate cuts, with a 25-basis-point cut in September being the basic scenario, but he remains open to a 50-basis-point cut.

The chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 1% in September exceeds 70%. Will Ball pour cold water on the market tonight?

Uto Shinohara, Managing Director and Senior Investment Strategist at Mesirow, stated that Powell confirmed the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, while continuing to emphasize data dependence and the future economic outlook. The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon cut rates along with other major central banks is driving the US dollar lower. Although the US dollar is under pressure, the implied rate cut expectations have not changed significantly: the September meeting is still expected to be around 30 basis points, and the total rate cut expected for the year has only increased from around 95 basis points to the current 100 basis points. As inflation moves towards the target, employment-related risks will play a greater role after the significant downward revision of the non-farm payroll data, and the Federal Reserve's response to employment data will continue to drive the US dollar's trend. (Jinshi)