Odaily星球日报讯 NatWest Markets 分析师在一份报告中表示，对美联储降息前景的信心增强以及预期美国经济将软着陆，美元上涨面临越来越大的阻力。他们表示，除非美国数据令人意外，以及美联储降息预期被推迟，否则这种情况看起来更持久。NatWest Markets 预计美联储今年将降息 150 个基点，比货币市场定价高出近 50 个基点。该机构分析师表示：“现在仍然是一个关于下个月‘降息多少’而不是‘是否’降息的故事。”（金十）

NatWest Markets：美联储即将降息，美元将表现疲软

Odaily Odaily News NatWest Markets analysts said in a report that the dollar&#39;s rise faces increasing resistance as confidence in the Fed&#39;s rate cut prospects increases and the U.S. economy is expected to have a soft landing. They said that unless U.S. data is surprising and the Fed&#39;s rate cut expectations are postponed, this situation looks more lasting. NatWest Markets expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 150 basis points this year, nearly 50 basis points higher than the money market pricing. The agency&#39;s analysts said: &quot;It is still a story about &#39;how much&#39; to cut interest rates next month rather than &#39;whether&#39; to cut interest rates.&quot; (Jinshi)

NatWest Markets: The US dollar will be weak as the Fed is about to cut interest rates

According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 63.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 36.5%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 36.7%, the probability of a 75 basis point cut is 47.9%, and the probability of a 100 basis point cut is 15.4%. (Gold Ten)

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 63.5%.

Table of Contents
- Will the Federal Reserve likely cut rates by 2 points in September?
- The United States is about to cut interest rates, and the market is turning to "US dollar carry trade"
- Wall Street estimates that PCE data is positive, supporting the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday at the Jackson Hole annual meeting that the time to cut interest rates has come, "the time to adjust policy has arrived", and "the timing and pace of rate cuts depend on the upcoming data, the constantly changing outlook, and the balance of risks". This is his most explicit signal for a rate cut so far.
The Federal Reserve may likely cut rates by 2 points in September...

Powell made it clear that the Fed will cut interest rates soon, Wall Street: "The carry trade is reviving" and this time the protagonist is the U.S. dollar

Entering the early stage of the interest rate cut cycle does not mean that a sharp rise is imminent, and there are still some risks that are worth our attention. In general, in the early stage of the interest rate cut, we still need to focus on six core issues, including the risk of recession in the United States, the pace of interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve's QT (quantitative tightening) plan, the risk of resurgence of inflation, the efficiency of global central bank coordination, and the political risks in the United States.