Crypto Market Observation: BTC breaks through the key point of $62K, will Altcoin take advantage of the opportunity to rise?

Quick read (see below for detailed interpretation)

Market sentiment index: 75 (previous value) → 75 (current value)

Bullish factors:

Market confidence remains, and the structure of call options remains stable

The high-multiple short orders above have a greater attraction to the price, and 62,000 will become an important observation point

Negative factors:

As expected, the U.S. stock market has experienced a correction. Although it is still within a safe range and has not fallen below the moving average, it remains to be seen whether it will fall below the moving average in the future.

The narrowing of ETF inflows has little effect on supporting the price of the currency;

The PCE data will be released next Friday, and some risk aversion is expected in the market;

? Market summary

1. Funding: Stablecoins continue to be issued, the growth rate slows down but the absolute value is still good, and BTC ETF continues to flow in

2. Chip side: No obvious changes. Although there are more chips above the price, the resistance may be small.

3. Technical aspect: With the help of the speech, break through the 62000 suppression and enter the offensive trading rhythm

? Summary of popular tracks

BTC once again broke through $60,000, the altcoin market saw a general rise, and many tokens saw encouraging gains;

Sentiment has recovered somewhat, but volume is still underwater, so we need to wait for sentiment to further return to the greedy zone;

The track surface shows a multi-party trend, but it is mainly based on the rise of BTC. The fundamentals and liquidity have not yet been decisively improved.

? Popular projects

Syscoin (PoW consensus-based blockchain)

Cause of heat

Binance launches SYS 1-50x USDT perpetual contract

Small-cap Altcoin contract expectations

Recommended attention

Currently unlisted Altcoin

Whether it is consistent with the law of contract pull-up

Market sentiment towards contract casinos

--(The following content is a detailed interpretation)--

1. Interpretation of the macro market

1. US stock market trends

 SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST Index Fluctuations Source: Tradingview - @10xWolfdao 

 Nasdaq 100-Day Index Source: Tradingview - @10xWolfdao

As mentioned last week, the U.S. stock market has experienced a large retracement, with the decline mainly concentrated in technology stocks. If the Nasdaq daily level does not fall below MA55, the decline will still be viewed as a short-term retracement. If it does not fall below MA55, you can long moderately. For BTC, the current retracement of the U.S. stock market has not been reflected in price behavior, and the chips are relatively stable.

2. Industry data analysis

1. Capital Inflow

1.1 ETF fund inflow/outflow

 Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow and outflow (USD) Source: Coinglass - @10xWolfdao 

 Bitcoin ETF trading volume Source: Coinglass - @10xWolfdao

As price fluctuations narrowed, ETF inflows also shrank significantly. Shrinkage is generally an important stage for choosing future directions. We need to pay special attention to abnormal inflows and outflows before interest rate cuts, which may become an important sign of market launch.

1.2 USDC & USDT Stablecoin Circulation

 Source: Glassnode - @10xWolfdao

The number of stablecoins on Thursday this week was 152.349 billion. This week, the number of stablecoins increased by 1.281 billion following last Thursday. Although it continued to decrease compared with 1.811 billion and 1.66 billion in the previous two cycles, it still maintained a level of more than 1 billion, and the total value hit a new high. ETFs have inflowed 290 million in the past 5 trading days (16-22), and the overall funding situation is good.

1.3 USDC & USDT OTC Discount and Premium

 USDT & USDC OTC premium Source: OKX - @10xWolfdao

The premium level of stablecoins has dropped slightly since Monday (19th)

2. BTC market analysis

2.1 BTC market analysis

 Source: Tradingview - compiled by @10xWolfdao

1. The current price is at the lower track of Gann box, around 0.618, which is relatively weak. The key point needs to pay attention to whether it can stand above 0.618

2. Currently, a chip peak is formed near 63600, which is the key resistance level of the current price. If it can be broken, it will continue to rise to the upper edge of the Gann box near 72000

 Source: Tradingview - compiled by @10xWolfdao

The 4h line is currently suppressed by ma360 and ma55, and the ma120 and ma20 below form support. It is necessary to focus on whether it can stand above 61500 and then start an upward trend. If it falls below 59000, it will continue to maintain a weak trend.

2.2 BTC contract market data

 Binance BTC / USDT liquidation map Source: Coinglass - @10xWolfdao

1. The peak of liquidation chips below is concentrated around 59500, so this point is more attractive for the downward trend of prices

2. The upper chip peak is concentrated around 61600, and the upward price attraction is currently maintained at this point

3. Overall, it is more attractive to clear the high leverage of short orders when the price goes up, so the possibility of the price going up to 61,000 is greater. It is necessary to observe whether the price will continue to rise after reaching 61,000 or turn around and liquidate long orders after a false breakthrough.

2.3 Options Market Data

 BTC options positions (exercise date) Source: Coinglass - @10xWolfdao

In terms of exercise dates, a large number of options are concentrated in the delivery contracts at the end of August, the end of September and the end of December. Among them, the options at the end of September and December are mainly based on the expectation of interest rate cuts, forming a bullish consensus, and the overall option structure is relatively stable.

 BTC option positions (strike price) Source: Coinglass - @10xWolfdao

There are two peaks in the position structure. The first one is concentrated at the upper edge of the 72,000 box, waiting for the second pull-up after the wide range of fluctuations. The other part is concentrated on the heavily out-of-the-money options at 100,000, and most of them are call options, indicating that the market is still firm in its expectation of reaching 100,000 by the end of the year.

Contract rates and open interest are normal, sentiment is not significantly high, and spot is still the main trend at this stage

 Source: Glassnode - @10xWolfdao 

 Source: Glassnode - @10xWolfdao

2.4 BTC on-chain address quantity data and chip distribution data

 BTC account balance is greater than 1000, the number of addresses fluctuates Source: Glassnode - @10xWolfdao 

 Source: Glassnode - @10xWolfdao

The current price range is 64000. As we mentioned in the last issue, a wide range means greater resistance. The chips above 65518-68462 account for 7.88% of the current chips, but firstly, the current price is on an upward trend, and secondly, according to our previous observations at different prices, many chips in this range have become non-short-term chips, and they did not leave the market when they suffered a large loss (for chips that entered the market at 67000 when the price was 55000, the loss was 18%), so the resistance above is lighter, and the chip structure is still in a good situation.

3. Technical review

As mentioned last Friday, logically, Saturday and Sunday should be the rebound area, and long positions should be maintained for one or two days. If there is no smooth rebound and a breakout of 62,000, it will be weak, and we may try to short according to the suppression of 62,000. If it cannot fall below 57,000 within three or four days (Monday and Tuesday this week), it may be in a chaotic trend. Then there was indeed no upward breakthrough last weekend, and it did not fall below 57,000 on Monday and Tuesday. Then on Wednesday and Thursday, the volatility of the BTC market narrowed, forming a triangle technically.

In the peripheral market, the US stock market and gold are both trending in a favorable direction, and Altcoin are also rising to a certain extent. The capital side is also favorable, and the chip side is normal, but BTC has not risen, and ETH and SOL have not moved abnormally, and there is a divergence, so it is very strange. Either the market is weak or it is corrected (the most common situation that triggers the correction is certain event points). The technical side forms a suppression of 62,000, so the important event time point this week is Powell's speech on Friday night. After the news was released at 10 o'clock last night, a needle of about 1,500 points was inserted on the K-line, but fortunately the second one of the 1-hour line did not continue, and the 4-hour line closed with a real green candle, stabilized, and then continued to surge and broke through 62,000 . The current market outlook breaks through 62,000, and it is currently at 64,000. The 1-hour level begins to adjust, and there is no adjustment signal at the 4-hour level. There is no adjustment signal on the daily line. Continue to maintain a strong mindset. From an analytical perspective, the upper side may see 68,000-70,000.

 Source: @10xWolfdao 

 Source: @10xWolfdao

3. Market Heat

1. Counterfeiting

Abstract

• 1) BTC once again broke through $60,000, the altcoin market saw a general rise, and many tokens saw a gratifying rise;
• 2) The sentiment has recovered, but the trading volume is still underwater, so we need to wait for the sentiment to return to the greedy range;
• 3) The track surface shows a multi-party trend, but it is mainly based on the rise of BTC, and the fundamentals and liquidity have not yet been decisively improved.

BTC bullish trend initially returns, altcoin market generally rises

Last Thursday, BTC dropped to $56,000. This week, it withstood the selling pressure and broke through $60,000 again, and the bullish trend initially returned. The altcoin market followed closely, with an overall increase of 5-30%, and HTX even increased by more than 50%.

 Crypto market performance this week Source: CryptoBubbles - @10xWolfdao

The sentiment index has rebounded from last week, but is still in the panic range

The sentiment index on Friday was 34, up 25% from last week’s 27. As BTC broke through 60,000 again, market sentiment improved slightly.

 This week's crypto market panic index Source: Alternative - @10xWolfdao

Funding conditions improved during the week

The trading volume of all tracks during the week remained relatively weak, with the trading volume of all currencies at -41%. The 7-day trading volume of all sectors was still negative, but it was an improvement compared to last week.

 This week's track data performance Source: Coingecko - @10xWolfdao

Unlike the underwater trading volume, all currencies had a net inflow of US$123 million during the week, with DeFi and OP ecosystems having a net inflow of more than US$10 million. The Polygon ecosystem, Metaverse, Polkadot ecosystem, and storage all had positive inflows.

The trend of copycat stocks in the market is good, and many tracks have increased by about 20%.

According to Coingecko's statistics on the track gains within 7 days, the top ten tracks with the highest gains are relatively scattered, which is a significant improvement compared to the previous few weeks, and has a certain reference value in terms of the degree of rebound.

After eliminating some tracks that are not of reference value, the following tracks need to be paid attention to this week:

• 1) OP Superchain Eco: 52%
• 2) AI Agents: 24%
• 3) Rollup: 21%
• 4) RWA: 20%
• 5) Gaming Platform: 19%

 Source: Coingecko - @10xWolfdao

1) OP Superchain Eco:

The overall market value of the OP ecosystem is relatively small. The incremental growth of the two targets, OP and WLD, has brought huge growth to its ecosystem. At the same time, other targets in the ecosystem have also followed suit.

OP rose 21.7% in 7 days, with a 24-hour trading volume of 167 million; WLD rose 13.7% in 7 days, with a 24-hour trading volume of 176 million.

2) AI Agents:

In terms of AI Agents, FET and AGIX both rose by more than 25% during the week. As the two largest targets in the Agents track, their leading growth will inevitably drive the growth of the entire track.

FET increased by 26% in 7 days, with a 24-hour trading volume of 312 million US dollars; AGIX increased by 28.8% in 7 days, with a 24-hour trading volume of 1.24 million US dollars. Since the ASI token will be merged, the trading volume is concentrated on FET, while AGIX is less.

3) Rollup:

In the Rollup track, Polygon surged 37% during the week due to its upcoming name change and Coinbase’s announcement that the renamed POL token will enter the coin listing roadmap. Metis, Nervos Network, Immutable, etc. all rose by about 15%. Syscoin continued to appreciate due to the impact of Binance’s online contracts, and has doubled during the week.

4) RWA

The RWA track as a whole did not see a large increase, but the trading volume was still considerable. The trading volumes of ONDO, OM, PENDLE, RSR, POLYX and other targets were all above 10 million US dollars. Among them, RSR and GFI had the best growth, 39.5% and 27.1% respectively, but no specific positive news was found in the sector as a whole.

5) Gaming Platform:

The overall market price of the gaming industry has increased. There are two possible reasons for this:

• The popularity of the game brought by Black Myth Wukong led to the main force to cooperate with the BTC bullish trend to make markets;
• A professor at Yale University proposed the concept of ServerFi, which provides new ideas for the development of GameFi.

Tokens such as GALA, PYR, NAKA, MYRIA, and PDA have seen good growth.

In general, the logic of the rise of Altcoin during the week is still mainly to follow the rise of BTC. There is no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. From the perspective of funds, it can be seen that the trading volume in the market is still underwater, and it is still necessary to wait for liquidity to return. In the medium term, we should pay more attention to the performance of BTC in Q4. If the interest rate cut comes as expected and CZ is successfully released from prison, it may be able to greatly boost the confidence and liquidity in the circle, thus ending the trend of shock callbacks and hopefully opening the second half of this bull market.

2. Last week’s short-term public opinion strategy focus

3. Popular Projects

1️⃣Syscoin (PoW consensus-based blockchain)

Reasons for popularity:

• Binance launches SYS 1-50x USDT perpetual contract
• Small-cap Altcoin contract expectations

Recommended attention:

• Currently unlisted Altcoin
• Whether it is consistent with the law of contract pull-up
• Market sentiment towards contract casinos

Syscoin is a PoW consensus-based blockchain. Its foundation is a two-layer blockchain: the core is the Syscoin blockchain itself, and running alongside it is a NEVM (Network Enhanced Virtual Machine) Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) layer that provides smart contract functionality.

Binance’s small-cap altcoins (mainly GameFi) + false narratives induced by contract expectations caused market reactions

This week, the game track and other small-cap altcoins saw a general rise, which attracted attention. The most aggressive ones were the game tokens on Binance, and the entire increase list was once dominated by games. This wave of games and other small-cap altcoins is a bit puzzling. There are no particularly good games in the basic analysis, and it is more like the market maker pulling the market. The tokens that are strongly related to Binance have risen sharply, which may be related to the previous delisting of Altcoin by Binance.

Binance uses small coin contracts$SYS $RARE $SYN These coins generally have low market capitalization and concentrated chips. They use contracts to quickly pull up the market and cause market reactions. At present, it is just driving up prices, not the real trend of the crypto and narrative. It is recommended to either lay out in advance in related small coins, or quickly enter and exit when good news such as contracts comes out.

Why are so many users flocking to Binance Futures Casino?

The first reason is that the money-making effect of the Solana ecosystem has deteriorated. A large number of users have left the market in the PVP game of PumpFun, and the market's focus has shifted to Binance contracts in cooperation with the dealer to pull the market.

• Decreased inflow:

On August 16, 250 million new USDC were minted on the Solana chain. Currently, not only the supply of USDC but also the total supply of stablecoins on the Solana chain has reached ATH.

 Solana’s stablecoin supply Source: Dune - @10xWolfDAO

• Lack of power:

 Active addresses on Solana chain Source: Dune - @10xWolfDAO 

It can be seen that the number of new addresses and active addresses are in a rapid decline, but the number of txns is increasing or has little change during the same period. This shows that old players are leaving or PVP is involuntarily serious, and new players are not interested.

• The Matthew effect is obvious, which is not good for novices

According to on-chain data and surveys by relevant bloggers, only 3% of people in pump fun can make money:

• If you have made more than $1,000,000 in profit trading Pump Fun tokens, then you are among the top 70 traders (0.0028% of all wallets).
• If the income is over $100,000, it ranks in the top 924 (0.037% of all wallets).
• If the income is over $10,000, then it ranks in the top 11,936 (0.477% of all wallets).
• If the income is over $1,000, then it ranks in the top 76,587 (3.061% of all wallets).

Due to the lack of new narratives and market hot spots, Binance has driven market sentiment by launching small-cap Altcoin contracts, and the market makers have been pulling the market. At the same time, because a large number of users left the PVP game of PumpFun and poured into the Binance contract casino, it caused further FOMO of related Altcoin. For related tokens with spot but no contract or with contract but no spot, there may be certain opportunities in the current market.

Rising trend retracement

• On August 14, Binance Futures launched the BANANA USDT-margined perpetual contract.
• On August 15, Binance Futures launched G and RARE perpetual contracts with a leverage of up to 50 times.
• On August 16, Binance Futures launched SYN 1-50x USDT perpetual contracts.
• On August 20, Binance launched the SYS 1-50x USDT perpetual contract.

 Binance gainers list on August 19 Source: Binance - compiled by @10xWolfdao

It can be seen that on August 20, some currencies with large gains have experienced a correction, while others have not performed as fast as before. There is still a lack of actual positive support from the fundamentals, and all are manipulated by the market makers. For example, the $RARE token has been sideways at the bottom for more than 2 years, and the main market makers have absorbed a large number of chips during this period. Later, they cooperated with Binance to launch contracts to pull up the spot market, and at the same time built positions to attract retail investors. After a large number of retail investors come in, the main market makers will close their positions in the contract market, and the direction of the price increase is completely determined by the market makers.

 Binance's biggest loser list on August 20 Source: Binance - compiled by @10xWolfdao

On August 20, Binance launched VOXEL 1-50x USDT perpetual contracts.

 Binance Gainer List on August 21 Source: Binance - @10xWolfdao

After Binance announced the launch of VOXEL contracts on the evening of August 20, it did see a surge in prices, but the fundamentals of the entire project have not changed. BRETT, POPCAT, SUN, and ALPACA also saw surges in prices after the contracts were launched this week, so the strategy is to make early arrangements for small-cap Altcoin that have not been listed on spot contracts.

Special thanks: Thanks to the following partners for their outstanding contributions to this issue of the weekly report

Contributors: Sylvia / Jim / Mat / Punko / Cage / Nora